Atlanta United v Orlando City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Atlanta United

2–3

23:30 UTC

Orlando City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 9 Sep, 11:32 · 12h before kick-off

Atlanta United win

36.0%

model 35.5%

Draw

21.6%

model 23.9%

Orlando City win

42.4%

model 40.6%

362242

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (554 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.5%
1-2 8.6%
2-1 8.0%
2-2 6.8%
0-1 5.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	63.8%	Under 2.5	36.2%
BTTS yes	65.4%	BTTS no	34.6%
Atlanta United 1+	79.4%	Atlanta United 2+	46.9%
Orlando City 1+	81.8%	Orlando City 2+	50.8%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.70. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

59/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Orlando City over 1.5 goals

Away goals O/U · usually 39%

51.9% fair odds 1.93

moderate signal · 562 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.8% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 393 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Orlando City carry the stronger rating, 1491 Elo against 1372.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Orlando City have an estimated 42.4% win probability, against 36.0% for Atlanta United and 21.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.58 for Atlanta United and 1.70 for Orlando City.

Why Atlanta United

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.6%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.58 to 1.70. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Orlando City can win

Orlando City carry the stronger rating, 1491 Elo against 1372.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Atlanta United, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Orlando City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Atlanta United: 45% possession, 10.0 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Orlando City: 57% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Orlando City are the model's most likely outcome at 42.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 59/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	352441	1.58–1.70	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
ai-blend-oos	352442	1.56–1.72	0%	0%	0%	Away ✓
dc-xg	392438	1.69–1.67	1-1 10%	65%	67%	Home ✗
dc-xg-oos	422335	1.75–1.58	1-1 10%	65%	66%	Home ✗
deep	352342	1.70–1.87	1-1 9%	69%	70%	Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City to win	41.9%	43.0%	30.0%	1.43×	2.33
Atlanta United to win	35.1%	36.3%	45.3%	0.80×	2.76
Draw	22.9%	24.5%	24.8%	0.99×	4.08

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City & both teams score	27.0%	25.1%	18.0%	1.39×	3.98
Atlanta United & both teams score	23.0%	21.9%	24.4%	0.90×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	19.6%	17.9%	19.2%	0.94×	5.58
Orlando City & not both score	15.0%	13.3%	12.1%	1.10×	7.53
Atlanta United & not both score	12.2%	13.3%	21.1%	0.63×	7.53
Draw & not both score	3.3%	4.9%	5.8%	0.85×	20.46

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City & over 1.5	37.1%	34.9%	23.7%	1.47×	2.87
Orlando City & over 2.5	32.2%	30.8%	20.5%	1.50×	3.24
Atlanta United & over 1.5	30.8%	30.8%	37.2%	0.83×	3.24
Atlanta United & over 2.5	26.7%	26.0%	31.0%	0.84×	3.84
Orlando City & over 3.5	20.8%	21.6%	11.3%	1.92×	4.63
Orlando City & under 3.5	21.1%	21.6%	18.8%	1.15×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.6%	18.0%	19.2%	0.94×	5.56
Atlanta United & under 3.5	18.3%	18.0%	28.4%	0.63×	5.56
Atlanta United & over 3.5	16.8%	18.0%	17.0%	1.06×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	12.7%	12.9%	16.0%	0.80×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	12.7%	12.9%	16.0%	0.80×	7.77
Draw & over 2.5	10.2%	12.9%	8.9%	1.45×	7.77
Draw & over 3.5	10.2%	12.9%	8.9%	1.45×	7.77
Orlando City & under 2.5	9.7%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.65
Atlanta United & under 2.5	8.4%	7.9%	14.4%	0.55×	12.65
Orlando City & under 1.5	4.8%	4.8%	6.4%	0.74×	20.89
Atlanta United & under 1.5	4.3%	4.8%	8.2%	0.58×	20.89
Draw & under 1.5	3.3%	4.8%	5.8%	0.83×	20.90

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (1UP)	61.9%	63.1%	—	—	1.58
Atlanta United (1UP)	56.3%	58.1%	—	—	1.72

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (2UP)	41.9%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Atlanta United (2UP)	35.1%	37.0%	—	—	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City to win 2nd half	38.8%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Atlanta United to win 2nd half	31.0%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
2nd half drawn	30.3%	34.4%	—	—	2.91

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.2%	70.9%	—	—	1.41
Orlando City over 0.5 in 2nd half	67.4%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Orlando City under 0.5 in 2nd half	32.6%	29.2%	—	—	3.42
Orlando City over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.8%	29.1%	—	—	3.44

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.7%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Atlanta United over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.1%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Atlanta United under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.9%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Atlanta United over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.3%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (+2.5)	92.6%	92.1%	89.4%	1.03×	1.09
Orlando City (+1.5)	82.1%	82.5%	76.8%	1.07×	1.21
Orlando City (+0.5)	64.9%	63.0%	54.7%	1.15×	1.59
Atlanta United (+0.5)	58.1%	57.0%	70.0%	0.81×	1.75
Orlando City (-0.5)	41.9%	43.0%	30.0%	1.43×	2.33
Atlanta United (-0.5)	35.1%	37.0%	45.3%	0.82×	2.70
Atlanta United (-1.5)	17.9%	17.5%	23.2%	0.75×	5.71
Atlanta United (-2.5)	7.4%	7.9%	10.6%	0.75×	12.62

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City to concede	81.7%	81.3%	82.3%	0.99×	1.23
Orlando City clean sheet	18.3%	18.7%	17.7%	1.05×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City clean sheet in 1st half	48.1%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Orlando City to concede in 1st half	51.9%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City to concede in 2nd half	62.1%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Orlando City clean sheet in 2nd half	37.9%	39.9%	—	—	2.51

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City under 3.5 goals	88.0%	87.8%	94.0%	0.93×	1.14
Orlando City over 0.5 goals	84.6%	81.4%	73.3%	1.11×	1.23
Orlando City under 2.5 goals	71.2%	71.9%	83.3%	0.86×	1.39
Orlando City over 1.5 goals	55.7%	59.3%	38.8%	1.53×	1.69
Orlando City under 1.5 goals	44.3%	40.7%	61.2%	0.66×	2.46
Orlando City over 2.5 goals	28.8%	28.1%	16.7%	1.69×	3.56
Orlando City under 0.5 goals	15.4%	18.6%	26.7%	0.70×	5.37
Orlando City over 3.5 goals	12.0%	12.2%	6.0%	2.03×	8.23

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City under 1.5 in 1st half	82.8%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Orlando City over 0.5 in 1st half	52.6%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Orlando City under 0.5 in 1st half	47.4%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
Orlando City over 1.5 in 1st half	17.2%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City scores more in 2nd half	44.3%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
Orlando City scores equally in both	31.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Orlando City scores more in 1st half	24.3%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United (away no bet)	60.5%	62.0%	64.6%	0.96×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	39.5%	38.0%	35.4%	1.08×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City even goals	51.2%	52.8%	53.6%	0.99×	1.90
Orlando City odd goals	48.8%	47.2%	46.4%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	73.1%	77.2%	—	—	1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals	26.9%	22.8%	—	—	4.39

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	78.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals	21.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.65

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	69.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Orlando City to score 2+ in a row	43.7%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Atlanta United to score 2+ in a row	38.2%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Either team to score 3+ in a row	29.2%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Orlando City to score 3+ in a row	16.8%	16.3%	—	—	6.14
Atlanta United to score 3+ in a row	13.2%	12.2%	—	—	8.18

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	9.4%	7.4%	10.4%	0.71×	13.49
1-2	8.4%	7.4%	7.7%	0.97×	13.49
2-1	7.6%	7.4%	10.0%	0.74×	13.49
2-2	7.1%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.49
Any other score	7.0%	7.4%	4.7%	1.57×	13.49
1-3	5.2%	7.4%	3.4%	2.19×	13.49
0-1	4.8%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.36
0-2	4.9%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.36
0-0	3.3%	1.7%	5.8%	0.30×	58.37
0-3	3.1%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.37
0-4	1.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.38
1-0	4.3%	1.7%	8.2%	0.21×	58.36
1-4	2.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.27×	58.37
2-0	4.1%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.36
2-3	4.4%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.36
2-4	2.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.38
3-0	2.3%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.37
3-1	4.3%	1.7%	4.8%	0.35×	58.36
3-2	4.0%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.36
3-3	2.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.37
3-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.53×	58.38
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.38
4-1	1.8%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.38
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.09×	58.38
4-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.17×	58.38
4-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.80×	58.38

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (2nd half DNB)	55.6%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Atlanta United (2nd half DNB)	44.4%	39.6%	—	—	2.52

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City leading at HT (DNB)	50.8%	55.4%	—	—	1.81
Atlanta United leading at HT (DNB)	49.2%	44.6%	—	—	2.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United or Orlando City (12)	77.1%	75.5%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Orlando City or draw (X2)	64.9%	63.7%	54.7%	1.17×	1.57
Atlanta United or draw (1X)	58.1%	57.0%	70.0%	0.81×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City or draw at HT	69.1%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Atlanta United or draw at HT	68.1%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Atlanta United or Orlando City at HT	62.8%	62.0%	—	—	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City or draw (1UP)	64.9%	72.0%	—	—	1.39
Atlanta United or draw (1UP)	58.1%	62.8%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United or Orlando City in 2nd half	69.7%	65.6%	—	—	1.53
Orlando City or draw in 2nd half	69.0%	65.6%	—	—	1.53
Atlanta United or draw in 2nd half	61.2%	63.9%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	55.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Neither half drawn	44.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (DNB)	54.4%	50.9%	39.8%	1.28×	1.96
Atlanta United (DNB)	45.6%	49.1%	60.2%	0.82×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City to score first	50.6%	53.7%	—	—	1.86
Atlanta United to score first	46.1%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
No goal scored	3.3%	4.3%	—	—	23.43

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	69.6%	58.4%	61.3%	0.95×	1.71
Not both teams to score	30.4%	41.6%	38.7%	1.08×	2.40

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	60.2%	50.1%	51.1%	0.98×	2.00
Not both score & under 2.5	21.4%	27.8%	29.5%	0.94×	3.60
Both score & under 2.5	9.4%	8.3%	10.4%	0.80×	11.99
Not both score & over 2.5	9.0%	8.3%	9.2%	0.90×	11.99

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	71.8%	80.5%	79.5%	1.01×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	28.2%	19.5%	20.5%	0.95×	5.14

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	58.0%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
Both teams to score in 2nd half	42.0%	33.4%	—	—	2.99

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	42.1%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Both score 2nd half only	30.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Both score 1st half only	16.0%	15.6%	—	—	6.42
Both score in both halves	11.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.36

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	72.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	27.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.96

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	67.9%	66.6%	—	—	1.50
A half without a goal	32.1%	33.4%	—	—	3.00

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	40.8%	42.0%	33.0%	1.27×	2.38
2-3 goals	39.8%	35.1%	43.0%	0.82×	2.85
0-1 goals	12.4%	16.9%	20.2%	0.84×	5.92
7+ goals	7.0%	7.6%	4.1%	1.87×	13.21

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City to score exactly 1	28.9%	27.4%	34.6%	0.79×	3.65
Orlando City to score 3+	28.8%	27.4%	16.7%	1.64×	3.65
Orlando City to score exactly 2	26.9%	27.4%	22.2%	1.23×	3.65
Orlando City to score exactly 0	15.4%	19.6%	26.7%	0.73×	5.10

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United to score exactly 1	31.1%	32.6%	31.1%	1.05×	3.07
Atlanta United to score exactly 2	26.4%	26.5%	26.4%	1.01×	3.77
Atlanta United to score 3+	24.3%	23.2%	25.0%	0.93×	4.30
Atlanta United to score exactly 0	18.3%	18.9%	17.7%	1.07×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	37.2%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Orlando City leading at HT	31.9%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
Atlanta United leading at HT	30.9%	33.6%	—	—	2.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City -1: 1	58.1%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Orlando City -1: 2	23.0%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Orlando City -1: X	19.0%	17.4%	—	—	5.73

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (0:1)	64.9%	61.6%	54.7%	1.13×	1.62
Atlanta United (0:1)	17.9%	17.8%	23.2%	0.77×	5.62
Draw (0:1)	17.2%	17.8%	22.2%	0.80×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (0:2)	82.1%	82.9%	76.8%	1.08×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.5%	10.9%	12.7%	0.85×	9.18
Atlanta United (0:2)	7.4%	7.7%	10.6%	0.73×	13.00

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (0:3)	92.6%	92.6%	89.4%	1.04×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.8%	2.4%	6.7%	0.36×	42.10
Atlanta United (0:3)	2.5%	2.4%	4.1%	0.58×	42.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (0:4)	97.5%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.8%	1.2%	2.0%	0.59×	83.40
Atlanta United (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	2.1%	0.56×	83.53

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United (1:0)	58.1%	58.2%	70.0%	0.83×	1.72
Orlando City (1:0)	23.0%	21.8%	13.0%	1.69×	4.58
Draw (1:0)	19.0%	17.0%	17.1%	0.99×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United (2:0)	77.0%	80.2%	87.0%	0.92×	1.25
Draw (2:0)	12.7%	10.4%	8.6%	1.21×	9.61
Orlando City (2:0)	10.3%	10.4%	4.5%	2.30×	9.64

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.3%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	26.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.78
Halves equal	21.8%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United to concede	84.6%	80.7%	73.3%	1.10×	1.24
Atlanta United clean sheet	15.4%	19.3%	26.7%	0.72×	5.18

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United to concede in 1st half	52.6%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Atlanta United clean sheet in 1st half	47.4%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United to concede in 2nd half	67.4%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Atlanta United clean sheet in 2nd half	32.6%	31.8%	—	—	3.14

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United under 3.5 goals	90.7%	92.2%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Atlanta United over 0.5 goals	81.7%	82.1%	82.3%	1.00×	1.22
Atlanta United under 2.5 goals	75.7%	77.7%	75.0%	1.04×	1.29
Atlanta United over 1.5 goals	50.7%	53.2%	51.3%	1.04×	1.88
Atlanta United under 1.5 goals	49.3%	46.8%	48.7%	0.96×	2.14
Atlanta United over 2.5 goals	24.3%	22.3%	25.0%	0.89×	4.49
Atlanta United under 0.5 goals	18.3%	17.9%	17.7%	1.01×	5.59
Atlanta United over 3.5 goals	9.3%	7.8%	9.4%	0.83×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United under 1.5 in 1st half	83.3%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Atlanta United under 0.5 in 1st half	48.1%	51.0%	—	—	1.96
Atlanta United over 0.5 in 1st half	51.9%	49.0%	—	—	2.04
Atlanta United over 1.5 in 1st half	16.7%	15.7%	—	—	6.37

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United scores more in 2nd half	39.8%	37.6%	—	—	2.66
Atlanta United scores equally in both	33.7%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Atlanta United scores more in 1st half	26.5%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City (home no bet)	64.7%	60.1%	54.7%	1.10×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	35.3%	39.9%	45.3%	0.88×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United even goals	51.7%	50.6%	51.0%	0.99×	1.98
Atlanta United odd goals	48.3%	49.4%	49.0%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	22.9%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-1	17.0%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-0	16.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 1-1	12.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
Any other HT score	7.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
HT 0-2	6.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
HT 2-0	6.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
HT 1-2	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.21
HT 2-1	4.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.22
HT 2-2	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.43

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City at HT / Orlando City at FT	23.9%	21.9%	—	—	4.57
Atlanta United at HT / Atlanta United at FT	21.1%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Draw at HT / Orlando City at FT	14.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Atlanta United at FT	11.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Atlanta United at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.58
Orlando City at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.60
Atlanta United at HT / Orlando City at FT	3.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.98
Orlando City at HT / Atlanta United at FT	2.8%	3.4%	—	—	29.02

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City to score last	50.6%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Atlanta United to score last	46.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
No goal scored	3.3%	4.3%	—	—	23.43

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.7%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Orlando City to lead by 1 at any time	61.9%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	57.7%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Atlanta United to lead by 1 at any time	56.3%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Orlando City to lead by 2 at any time	31.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Atlanta United to lead by 2 at any time	26.4%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	23.9%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Orlando City to lead by 3 at any time	13.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Atlanta United to lead by 3 at any time	10.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	81.6%	83.4%	83.4%	1.00×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.5%	83.4%	75.9%	1.10×	1.20
2-5 goals	72.5%	72.4%	69.0%	1.05×	1.38
1-4 goals	68.0%	68.9%	73.2%	0.94×	1.45
3-6 goals	62.1%	63.4%	56.3%	1.13×	1.58
2-4 goals	58.9%	59.1%	58.7%	1.01×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.0%	53.2%	49.4%	1.08×	1.88
1-3 goals	48.9%	48.6%	57.4%	0.85×	2.06
4-6 goals	40.8%	43.5%	33.0%	1.32×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.5%	39.1%	1.11×	2.30
2-3 goals	39.8%	39.2%	43.0%	0.91×	2.55
4-5 goals	32.7%	35.3%	26.2%	1.35×	2.84
1-2 goals	27.5%	30.3%	34.2%	0.89×	3.31
5-6 goals	21.7%	24.5%	17.2%	1.42×	4.09
7+ goals	7.0%	8.8%	4.1%	2.17×	11.34

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City never behind	40.4%	48.0%	—	—	2.09
Atlanta United never behind	34.8%	35.8%	—	—	2.79

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.0%	50.9%	50.5%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.0%	49.1%	49.5%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.8%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.2%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.9%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.7%	95.4%	94.3%	1.01×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	87.6%	87.6%	79.8%	1.10×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	84.9%	82.3%	89.1%	0.92×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	71.3%	72.4%	78.8%	0.92×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	69.2%	66.3%	60.2%	1.10×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	52.2%	52.6%	63.0%	0.83×	1.90
Over 3.5 goals	47.8%	47.4%	37.0%	1.28×	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	30.8%	33.7%	39.8%	0.85×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	28.7%	27.6%	21.2%	1.30×	3.63
Over 5.5 goals	15.1%	17.7%	10.9%	1.61×	5.66
Under 1.5 goals	12.4%	12.4%	20.2%	0.61×	8.08
Under 0.5 goals	3.3%	4.6%	5.8%	0.79×	21.97

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	92.3%	92.4%	95.6%	0.97×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	84.8%	81.0%	74.9%	1.08×	1.23
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	82.5%	81.0%	87.8%	0.92×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	64.5%	61.9%	74.8%	0.83×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.8%	61.8%	48.2%	1.28×	1.62
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.2%	38.2%	51.8%	0.74×	2.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	35.5%	38.1%	25.2%	1.51×	2.62
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	17.5%	19.0%	12.2%	1.56×	5.27
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	15.2%	19.0%	25.1%	0.76×	5.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	7.7%	7.6%	4.4%	1.74×	13.16

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	81.4%	86.4%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	77.1%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	56.4%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	43.6%	37.1%	—	—	2.69
Under 0.5 in 1st half	22.9%	21.2%	—	—	4.73
Over 2.5 in 1st half	18.6%	13.7%	—	—	7.33

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	87.5%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	65.2%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	61.9%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	38.1%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	34.8%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	12.5%	14.7%	—	—	6.80

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United not to score in both halves	67.8%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Orlando City not to score in both halves	64.5%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Orlando City to score in both halves	35.5%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Atlanta United to score in both halves	32.2%	29.4%	—	—	3.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	69.6%	59.8%	61.3%	0.98×	1.67
Only Orlando City scores	15.0%	11.0%	12.1%	0.91×	9.07
Only Atlanta United scores	12.2%	11.0%	21.1%	0.52×	9.08
Neither team scores	3.3%	4.6%	5.8%	0.81×	21.57

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.4%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	19.1%	17.4%	15.9%	1.10×	5.74
Exactly 2 goals	18.4%	17.4%	19.7%	0.88×	5.74
6 or more goals	15.1%	17.4%	10.9%	1.59×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	13.6%	12.1%	10.4%	1.17×	8.27
Exactly 1 goals	9.1%	7.6%	14.5%	0.53×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	3.3%	4.5%	5.8%	0.77×	22.46

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	33.5%	35.9%	—	—	2.79
2 goals in 1st half	25.0%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
No goals in 1st half	22.9%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
3+ goals in 1st half	18.6%	15.1%	—	—	6.62

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	61.9%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
1 goal in 2nd half	25.5%	29.8%	—	—	3.36
No goals in 2nd half	12.5%	14.5%	—	—	6.88

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United not to win both halves	90.3%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Orlando City not to win both halves	87.6%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Orlando City to win both halves	12.4%	12.2%	—	—	8.23
Atlanta United to win both halves	9.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.46

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Orlando City to win either half	58.2%	59.6%	—	—	1.68
Atlanta United to win either half	52.2%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Atlanta United to win neither half	47.8%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
Orlando City to win neither half	41.8%	40.4%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlanta United not to win to nil	87.8%	88.1%	78.9%	1.12×	1.14
Orlando City not to win to nil	85.0%	88.1%	87.9%	1.00×	1.14
Orlando City to win to nil	15.0%	11.9%	12.1%	0.99×	8.42
Atlanta United to win to nil	12.2%	11.9%	21.1%	0.56×	8.43

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.9%	24.2%	24.8%	0.97×	4.14
Orlando City by 1	19.0%	17.0%	17.1%	0.99×	5.90
Atlanta United by 1	17.2%	16.9%	22.2%	0.76×	5.90
Orlando City by 2	12.7%	11.8%	8.6%	1.37×	8.50
Atlanta United by 2	10.5%	11.8%	12.7%	0.92×	8.50
Orlando City by 3+	10.3%	11.8%	4.5%	2.61×	8.50
Atlanta United by 3+	7.4%	7.2%	10.6%	0.68×	13.84

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.