Atlante FC v Atlético de San Luis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 October 2026 · MEX-Liga MX · 2627
MEX-Liga MX
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.6%
- 2-1 8.8%
- 1-0 8.6%
- 1-2 7.7%
- 0-1 7.4%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 52.4% | Under 2.5 | 47.6% |
| BTTS yes | 56.7% | BTTS no | 43.3% |
| Atlante FC 1+ | 77.2% | Atlante FC 2+ | 43.5% |
| Atlético de San Luis 1+ | 72.5% | Atlético de San Luis 2+ | 37.0% |
Expected goals 1.48 – 1.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Atlante FC carry the stronger rating, 1471 Elo against 1428.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Atlante FC have only 7 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Atlante FC have an estimated 40.9% win probability, against 32.4% for Atlético de San Luis and 26.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.48 for Atlante FC and 1.29 for Atlético de San Luis.
Why Atlante FC
Atlante FC carry the stronger rating, 1471 Elo against 1428.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.7%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.48 to 1.29. Draws run at 24% in this competition.
Why Atlético de San Luis can win
Nothing in the data singles out Atlético de San Luis.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Atlante FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Atlético de San Luis, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Atlante FC: 44% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Atlético de San Luis: 54% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Atlante FC's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-21 11:56 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-21 15:05 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·
Atlante FC are the model's most likely outcome at 40.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%. Confidence 26/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.48–1.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.31–1.26 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 53% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.