Atlante FC v CF Pachuca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 September 2026 · MEX-Liga MX · 2627
MEX-Liga MX
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 14.5%
- 0-0 11.9%
- 0-1 10.9%
- 1-0 10.8%
- 1-2 7.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 38.5% | Under 2.5 | 61.5% |
| BTTS yes | 46.3% | BTTS no | 53.7% |
| Atlante FC 1+ | 67.0% | Atlante FC 2+ | 30.5% |
| CF Pachuca 1+ | 67.3% | CF Pachuca 2+ | 30.8% |
Expected goals 1.11 – 1.12. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- CF Pachuca carry the stronger rating, 1545 Elo against 1496.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Atlante FC have only 6 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
CF Pachuca have an estimated 34.6% win probability, against 34.2% for Atlante FC and 31.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.11 for Atlante FC and 1.12 for CF Pachuca.
Why Atlante FC
Nothing in the data singles out Atlante FC.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 31.2%. A combined 2.23 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.11 to 1.12. Draws run at 24% in this competition.
Why CF Pachuca can win
CF Pachuca carry the stronger rating, 1545 Elo against 1496.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Atlante FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for CF Pachuca, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Atlante FC: 40% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. CF Pachuca: 46% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 14.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·
CF Pachuca are the model's most likely outcome at 34.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.5%. Confidence 33/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.11–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.07–1.01 | 1-1 15% | 35% | 43% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.