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Atlético Grau v Cusco FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Atlético Grau win
43.2%
model 42.3%
Draw
27.4%
model 26.9%
Cusco FC win
29.4%
model 30.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 13.0%
  2. 1-1 12.6%
  3. 0-1 10.7%
  4. 0-0 9.2%
  5. 2-1 8.4%

Goals

Over 2.541.2% Under 2.558.8%
BTTS yes46.4% BTTS no53.6%
Atlético Grau 1+72.2% Atlético Grau 2+36.6%
Cusco FC 1+64.9% Cusco FC 2+28.2%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.05. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
85/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Not both teams to score
GG/NG · usually 46%
53.4% fair odds 1.87
moderate signal · 1528 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Cusco FC (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 75%
83.5% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Atlético Grau have an estimated 43.2% win probability, against 29.4% for Cusco FC and 27.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.28 for Atlético Grau and 1.05 for Cusco FC.

Why Atlético Grau

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.4%. A combined 2.33 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.28 to 1.05. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Cusco FC can win

Cusco FC carry the stronger rating, 1529 Elo against 1462.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Atlético Grau, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Cusco FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Atlético Grau: 44% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 16.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Cusco FC: 56% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 16.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Atlético Grau are the model's most likely outcome at 43.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.0%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.28–1.05 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.15–0.93 1-0 15% 34% 41%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau to win 41.1% 42.9% 49.8% 0.86× 2.33
Cusco FC to win 30.0% 30.4% 25.4% 1.20× 3.30
Draw 28.9% 27.9% 25.0% 1.12× 3.58
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau & not both score 27.5% 25.2% 26.4% 0.95× 3.97
Cusco FC & not both score 19.8% 18.0% 12.3% 1.46× 5.56
Draw & both teams score 16.8% 18.0% 17.4% 1.03× 5.57
Atlético Grau & both teams score 13.7% 13.3% 23.6% 0.56× 7.54
Draw & not both score 12.0% 13.3% 7.8% 1.70× 7.54
Cusco FC & both teams score 10.2% 13.3% 13.2% 1.00× 7.54
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau & under 3.5 34.0% 30.8% 33.7% 0.91× 3.25
Atlético Grau & over 1.5 26.2% 26.0% 38.0% 0.68× 3.84
Cusco FC & under 3.5 25.5% 26.0% 19.4% 1.34× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 24.9% 21.6% 18.8% 1.15× 4.63
Draw & under 3.5 24.9% 21.6% 18.8% 1.15× 4.63
Atlético Grau & under 2.5 23.2% 21.6% 19.2% 1.13× 4.63
Cusco FC & over 1.5 17.8% 18.0% 17.4% 1.04× 5.55
Cusco FC & under 2.5 17.6% 18.0% 11.1% 1.63× 5.55
Atlético Grau & over 2.5 18.0% 18.0% 30.8% 0.58× 5.55
Draw & over 1.5 16.8% 18.0% 17.4% 1.04× 5.56
Atlético Grau & under 1.5 14.9% 12.8% 12.0% 1.07× 7.79
Cusco FC & over 2.5 12.4% 12.8% 14.5% 0.89× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 12.0% 12.8% 7.8% 1.65× 7.79
Cusco FC & under 1.5 12.2% 12.8% 8.2% 1.57× 7.79
Atlético Grau & over 3.5 7.2% 7.9% 16.3% 0.49× 12.63
Cusco FC & over 3.5 4.5% 4.8% 6.2% 0.78× 20.81
Draw & over 2.5 4.0% 4.8% 6.3% 0.76× 20.82
Draw & over 3.5 4.0% 4.8% 6.3% 0.76× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau (1UP) 53.6% 52.4% — — 1.91
Cusco FC (1UP) 43.6% 38.7% — — 2.58
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau (2UP) 41.1% 47.0% — — 2.13
Cusco FC (2UP) 30.0% 30.1% — — 3.32
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 41.3% 41.9% — — 2.39
Atlético Grau to win 2nd half 32.4% 34.0% — — 2.94
Cusco FC to win 2nd half 26.3% 26.0% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC under 1.5 in 2nd half 89.2% 87.2% — — 1.15
Cusco FC under 0.5 in 2nd half 57.3% 54.4% — — 1.84
Cusco FC over 0.5 in 2nd half 42.7% 45.6% — — 2.19
Cusco FC over 1.5 in 2nd half 10.8% 12.8% — — 7.83
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau under 1.5 in 2nd half 86.0% 88.6% — — 1.13
Atlético Grau under 0.5 in 2nd half 52.1% 54.9% — — 1.82
Atlético Grau over 0.5 in 2nd half 47.9% 45.1% — — 2.22
Atlético Grau over 1.5 in 2nd half 14.0% 11.4% — — 8.79
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (+2.5) 94.5% 92.1% 88.6% 1.04× 1.09
Cusco FC (+1.5) 82.9% 82.6% 75.4% 1.10× 1.21
Atlético Grau (+0.5) 70.0% 68.7% 74.6% 0.92× 1.46
Cusco FC (+0.5) 58.9% 57.1% 50.2% 1.14× 1.75
Atlético Grau (-0.5) 41.1% 42.9% 49.8% 0.86× 2.33
Cusco FC (-0.5) 30.0% 31.3% 25.4% 1.23× 3.20
Atlético Grau (-1.5) 17.1% 17.4% 24.6% 0.71× 5.74
Atlético Grau (-2.5) 5.5% 7.9% 11.4% 0.69× 12.72
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to concede 68.2% 72.3% 80.1% 0.90× 1.38
Cusco FC clean sheet 31.8% 27.7% 19.9% 1.39× 3.61
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC clean sheet in 1st half 61.1% 64.6% — — 1.55
Cusco FC to concede in 1st half 38.9% 35.4% — — 2.82
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC clean sheet in 2nd half 52.1% 54.4% — — 1.84
Cusco FC to concede in 2nd half 47.9% 45.6% — — 2.19
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC under 6.5 corners 91.7% 89.9% — — 1.11
Cusco FC under 5.5 corners 84.7% 81.4% — — 1.23
Cusco FC under 4.5 corners 73.6% 71.6% — — 1.40
Cusco FC over 2.5 corners 61.2% 61.7% — — 1.62
Cusco FC under 3.5 corners 58.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Cusco FC over 3.5 corners 42.0% 42.8% — — 2.34
Cusco FC under 2.5 corners 38.8% 38.3% — — 2.61
Cusco FC over 4.5 corners 26.4% 28.4% — — 3.53
Cusco FC over 5.5 corners 15.3% 18.6% — — 5.38
Cusco FC over 6.5 corners 8.3% 10.1% — — 9.89
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC under 3.5 goals 98.5% 97.5% 97.5% 1.00× 1.03
Cusco FC under 2.5 goals 93.2% 92.4% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Cusco FC under 1.5 goals 76.2% 76.2% 71.6% 1.07× 1.31
Cusco FC over 0.5 goals 60.5% 63.2% 65.9% 0.96× 1.58
Cusco FC under 0.5 goals 39.5% 36.8% 34.1% 1.08× 2.72
Cusco FC over 1.5 goals 23.8% 23.8% 28.4% 0.84× 4.21
Cusco FC over 2.5 goals 6.8% 7.6% 8.0% 0.96× 13.08
Cusco FC over 3.5 goals 1.5% 2.5% 2.5% 0.99× 39.89
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC under 1.5 in 1st half 94.6% 94.0% — — 1.06
Cusco FC under 0.5 in 1st half 69.0% 70.4% — — 1.42
Cusco FC over 0.5 in 1st half 31.0% 29.6% — — 3.38
Cusco FC over 1.5 in 1st half 5.4% 6.0% — — 16.67
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC scores equally in both 48.1% 48.2% — — 2.07
Cusco FC scores more in 2nd half 32.3% 33.3% — — 3.00
Cusco FC scores more in 1st half 19.6% 18.2% — — 5.49
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau (away no bet) 58.7% 57.4% 66.6% 0.86× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 41.3% 42.6% 33.4% 1.28× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC even goals 57.8% 56.9% 56.9% 1.00× 1.76
Cusco FC odd goals 42.2% 43.1% 43.1% 1.00× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 92.7% 91.7% — — 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 7.3% 8.3% — — 12.06
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 52.0% 50.7% — — 1.97
Not both halves under 1.5 48.0% 49.3% — — 2.03
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 41.9% 38.7% — — 2.58
Atlético Grau to score 2+ in a row 26.3% 24.9% — — 4.01
Cusco FC to score 2+ in a row 18.6% 16.2% — — 6.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row 11.8% 12.1% — — 8.24
Atlético Grau to score 3+ in a row 7.6% 5.5% — — 18.16
Cusco FC to score 3+ in a row 4.3% 2.6% — — 38.37
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau corners (+3.5) 92.7% 89.6% — — 1.12
Atlético Grau corners (+2.5) 87.5% 84.5% — — 1.18
Atlético Grau corners (+1.5) 79.8% 74.8% — — 1.34
Cusco FC corners (+3.5) 76.4% 74.8% — — 1.34
Cusco FC corners (+2.5) 66.4% 65.9% — — 1.52
Cusco FC corners (+1.5) 54.6% 52.4% — — 1.91
Atlético Grau corners (-1.5) 45.4% 47.6% — — 2.10
Atlético Grau corners (-2.5) 33.6% 34.1% — — 2.93
Atlético Grau corners (-3.5) 23.6% 25.2% — — 3.97
Cusco FC corners (-1.5) 20.2% 25.2% — — 3.97
Cusco FC corners (-2.5) 12.5% 15.5% — — 6.45
Cusco FC corners (-3.5) 7.3% 10.4% — — 9.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 60.1% 48.2% — — 2.07
9-11 corners 25.4% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 14.5% 21.2% — — 4.72
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 90.4% 83.4% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 85.5% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 10.5 corners 78.9% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 9.5 corners 70.4% 72.5% — — 1.38
Under 8.5 corners 60.1% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 7.5 corners 51.5% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 7.5 corners 48.5% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 8.5 corners 39.9% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 9.5 corners 29.6% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 10.5 corners 21.1% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 11.5 corners 14.5% 16.9% — — 5.90
Over 12.5 corners 9.6% 16.6% — — 6.02
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 14.9% 11.5% 12.0% 0.96× 8.71
1-1 12.8% 11.5% 11.2% 1.02× 8.71
0-0 12.0% 11.5% 7.8% 1.47× 8.71
0-1 12.2% 11.5% 8.2% 1.41× 8.71
2-0 8.2% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.51
2-1 7.7% 7.4% 9.8% 0.76× 13.51
0-2 5.4% 7.4% 3.1% 2.40× 13.51
1-2 6.2% 7.4% 7.6% 0.97× 13.51
0-3 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% 1.58× 58.31
0-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.16× 58.32
1-3 1.9% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.31
1-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.32
2-2 3.6% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.30
2-3 1.1% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.31
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.32
3-0 3.1% 1.7% 5.1% 0.34× 58.30
3-1 2.9% 1.7% 5.3% 0.33× 58.30
3-2 1.4% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.31
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.37× 58.32
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.31
4-1 0.8% 1.7% 2.5% 0.68× 58.31
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.58× 58.32
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.73× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 9.47× 58.32
Any other score 0.9% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau (2nd half DNB) 55.1% 59.1% — — 1.69
Cusco FC (2nd half DNB) 44.9% 40.9% — — 2.45
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau leading at HT (DNB) 58.5% 55.7% — — 1.80
Cusco FC leading at HT (DNB) 41.5% 44.3% — — 2.26
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau or Cusco FC (12) 71.1% 72.1% 75.0% 0.96× 1.39
Atlético Grau or draw (1X) 70.0% 69.6% 74.6% 0.93× 1.44
Cusco FC or draw (X2) 58.9% 57.1% 50.2% 1.14× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau or draw at HT 79.3% 79.7% — — 1.26
Cusco FC or draw at HT 70.8% 74.4% — — 1.34
Atlético Grau or Cusco FC at HT 50.0% 51.6% — — 1.94
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau or draw (1UP) 70.0% 76.6% — — 1.31
Cusco FC or draw (1UP) 58.9% 63.1% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau or draw in 2nd half 73.7% 74.0% — — 1.35
Cusco FC or draw in 2nd half 67.7% 66.0% — — 1.52
Atlético Grau or Cusco FC in 2nd half 58.7% 58.1% — — 1.72
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 71.2% 70.1% — — 1.43
Neither half drawn 28.8% 29.9% — — 3.35
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau (DNB) 57.8% 58.1% 66.3% 0.88× 1.72
Cusco FC (DNB) 42.2% 41.9% 33.7% 1.24× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau to score first 48.6% 45.9% — — 2.18
Cusco FC to score first 39.4% 32.8% — — 3.05
No goal scored 12.0% 9.7% — — 10.26
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 59.3% 55.0% 46.2% 1.19× 1.82
Both teams to score 40.7% 45.0% 53.8% 0.84× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 52.8% 47.2% 37.7% 1.25× 2.12
Both score & over 2.5 27.9% 33.3% 42.8% 0.78× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 12.8% 12.4% 11.2% 1.10× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 6.5% 8.3% 8.7% 0.95× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 92.4% 89.0% 85.7% 1.04× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 7.6% 11.0% 14.3% 0.77× 9.10
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 79.7% 75.5% — — 1.32
Both teams to score in 2nd half 20.3% 24.5% — — 4.08
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 70.2% 67.2% — — 1.49
Both score 2nd half only 17.8% 14.9% — — 6.69
Both score 1st half only 9.5% 6.8% — — 14.62
Both score in both halves 2.5% 4.8% — — 20.67
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 88.0% 85.1% — — 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 12.0% 14.9% — — 6.70
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 59.7% 57.1% — — 1.75
A goal in each half 40.3% 42.9% — — 2.33
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.2% 47.2% 44.2% 1.07× 2.12
0-1 goals 39.2% 35.0% 27.5% 1.27× 2.85
4-6 goals 15.1% 20.2% 26.8% 0.75× 4.95
7+ goals 0.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.01× 54.51
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to score exactly 0 39.5% 35.9% 34.1% 1.05× 2.78
Cusco FC to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.9% 37.7% 0.95× 2.78
Cusco FC to score exactly 2 17.0% 19.5% 20.7% 0.95× 5.12
Cusco FC to score 3+ 6.8% 8.5% 8.0% 1.07× 11.71
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau to score exactly 1 36.4% 35.5% 33.0% 1.08× 2.81
Atlético Grau to score exactly 0 31.8% 32.6% 19.9% 1.63× 3.07
Atlético Grau to score exactly 2 20.9% 23.3% 25.0% 0.93× 4.29
Atlético Grau to score 3+ 10.9% 14.3% 22.5% 0.64× 7.00
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 50.0% 48.4% — — 2.07
Atlético Grau leading at HT 29.2% 25.6% — — 3.91
Cusco FC leading at HT 20.7% 20.3% — — 4.92
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau -1: 2 58.9% 56.8% — — 1.76
Atlético Grau -1: X 24.1% 23.5% — — 4.25
Atlético Grau -1: 1 17.1% 17.5% — — 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (0:1) 58.9% 55.9% 50.2% 1.11× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 24.1% 24.2% 25.4% 0.96× 4.13
Atlético Grau (0:1) 17.1% 17.8% 24.6% 0.72× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (0:2) 82.9% 83.0% 75.4% 1.10× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.6% 11.0% 13.4% 0.82× 9.10
Atlético Grau (0:2) 5.5% 7.6% 11.4% 0.67× 13.07
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (0:3) 94.5% 92.7% 88.6% 1.05× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.1% 2.4% 7.6% 0.31× 41.96
Atlético Grau (0:3) 1.4% 2.4% 4.0% 0.60× 42.08
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (0:4) 98.6% 98.1% 96.0% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.1% 1.2% 2.5% 0.48× 81.78
Atlético Grau (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 1.6% 0.75× 81.87
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau (1:0) 70.0% 70.2% 74.6% 0.94× 1.42
Draw (1:0) 19.6% 17.1% 17.9% 0.95× 5.84
Cusco FC (1:0) 10.4% 12.7% 7.6% 1.67× 7.88
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau (2:0) 89.6% 88.5% 92.4% 0.96× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.6% 6.4% 5.6% 1.14× 15.66
Cusco FC (2:0) 2.8% 2.3% 2.2% 1.05× 43.75
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 44.5% 45.7% — — 2.19
Halves equal 28.8% 26.3% — — 3.81
1st half highest scoring 26.7% 26.2% — — 3.81
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau to concede 60.5% 63.6% 65.9% 0.96× 1.57
Atlético Grau clean sheet 39.5% 36.4% 34.1% 1.07× 2.75
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau clean sheet in 1st half 69.0% 70.8% — — 1.41
Atlético Grau to concede in 1st half 31.0% 29.2% — — 3.42
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau clean sheet in 2nd half 57.3% 54.8% — — 1.83
Atlético Grau to concede in 2nd half 42.7% 45.2% — — 2.21
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau under 6.5 corners 78.9% 76.5% — — 1.31
Atlético Grau over 2.5 corners 77.7% 76.5% — — 1.31
Atlético Grau under 5.5 corners 67.9% 66.7% — — 1.50
Atlético Grau over 3.5 corners 62.0% 62.3% — — 1.61
Atlético Grau under 4.5 corners 53.9% 52.6% — — 1.90
Atlético Grau over 4.5 corners 46.1% 47.4% — — 2.11
Atlético Grau under 3.5 corners 38.0% 37.7% — — 2.65
Atlético Grau over 5.5 corners 32.1% 33.3% — — 3.01
Atlético Grau under 2.5 corners 22.3% 23.5% — — 4.26
Atlético Grau over 6.5 corners 21.1% 23.5% — — 4.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau under 3.5 goals 97.1% 96.4% 92.4% 1.04× 1.04
Atlético Grau under 2.5 goals 89.1% 87.3% 77.5% 1.13× 1.15
Atlético Grau under 1.5 goals 68.3% 67.9% 52.7% 1.29× 1.47
Atlético Grau over 0.5 goals 68.2% 67.9% 80.1% 0.85× 1.47
Atlético Grau under 0.5 goals 31.8% 32.1% 19.9% 1.61× 3.12
Atlético Grau over 1.5 goals 31.7% 32.1% 47.3% 0.68× 3.12
Atlético Grau over 2.5 goals 10.9% 12.7% 22.5% 0.57× 7.86
Atlético Grau over 3.5 goals 2.9% 3.6% 7.6% 0.48× 27.56
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau under 1.5 in 1st half 91.2% 94.7% — — 1.06
Atlético Grau under 0.5 in 1st half 61.1% 64.3% — — 1.55
Atlético Grau over 0.5 in 1st half 38.9% 35.7% — — 2.80
Atlético Grau over 1.5 in 1st half 8.8% 5.3% — — 18.72
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau scores equally in both 42.9% 41.7% — — 2.40
Atlético Grau scores more in 2nd half 33.7% 33.3% — — 3.00
Atlético Grau scores more in 1st half 23.4% 21.1% — — 4.74
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC (home no bet) 51.0% 51.4% 50.4% 1.02× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 49.0% 48.6% 49.6% 0.98× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau even goals 55.1% 55.3% 50.5% 1.09× 1.81
Atlético Grau odd goals 44.9% 44.7% 49.5% 0.90× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 42.1% 39.4% — — 2.54
HT 1-0 20.8% 24.3% — — 4.11
HT 0-1 15.8% 18.5% — — 5.39
HT 1-1 7.6% 6.9% — — 14.54
HT 2-0 5.1% 6.9% — — 14.58
HT 0-2 2.9% 2.4% — — 42.21
Any other HT score 2.0% 2.4% — — 42.27
HT 2-1 1.9% 2.4% — — 42.28
HT 1-2 1.4% 2.4% — — 42.31
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.4% — — 42.38
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau at HT / Atlético Grau at FT 23.1% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 20.1% 21.5% — — 4.65
Draw at HT / Atlético Grau at FT 16.5% 16.8% — — 5.97
Cusco FC at HT / Cusco FC at FT 15.1% 16.7% — — 5.98
Draw at HT / Cusco FC at FT 13.4% 12.7% — — 7.89
Atlético Grau at HT / Draw at FT 4.7% 3.5% — — 28.85
Cusco FC at HT / Draw at FT 4.1% 3.5% — — 28.87
Cusco FC at HT / Atlético Grau at FT 1.6% 3.5% — — 28.96
Atlético Grau at HT / Cusco FC at FT 1.5% 3.5% — — 28.97
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau to score last 48.5% 46.4% — — 2.16
Cusco FC to score last 39.4% 38.8% — — 2.58
No goal scored 12.0% 9.1% — — 10.93
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 88.0% 91.4% — — 1.09
Atlético Grau to lead by 1 at any time 53.6% 50.6% — — 1.98
Cusco FC to lead by 1 at any time 43.6% 39.2% — — 2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 35.2% 34.7% — — 2.88
Atlético Grau to lead by 2 at any time 21.3% 19.5% — — 5.13
Cusco FC to lead by 2 at any time 14.0% 10.6% — — 9.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 10.1% 10.6% — — 9.47
Atlético Grau to lead by 3 at any time 6.6% 6.6% — — 15.08
Cusco FC to lead by 3 at any time 3.5% 1.6% — — 61.82
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau most corners 57.9% 55.6% — — 1.80
Cusco FC most corners 30.2% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 11.9% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.0% 87.4% 87.1% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 82.0% 83.4% 78.1% 1.07× 1.20
1-3 goals 72.3% 72.3% 63.9% 1.13× 1.38
2-6 goals 60.3% 63.3% 70.8% 0.89× 1.58
2-5 goals 58.9% 59.1% 67.4% 0.88× 1.69
2-4 goals 54.9% 53.2% 58.3% 0.91× 1.88
1-2 goals 53.6% 53.2% 41.1% 1.29× 1.88
2-3 goals 45.2% 48.4% 44.2% 1.10× 2.07
3-6 goals 33.8% 35.2% 49.6% 0.71× 2.84
3-5 goals 32.4% 35.2% 46.2% 0.76× 2.84
3-4 goals 28.4% 30.2% 37.1% 0.81× 3.31
4-6 goals 15.1% 18.8% 26.8% 0.70× 5.32
4-5 goals 13.7% 14.8% 23.4% 0.63× 6.75
5-6 goals 5.4% 8.9% 12.7% 0.70× 11.28
7+ goals 0.5% 2.5% 1.8% 1.41× 39.25
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Grau never behind 44.4% 48.9% — — 2.05
Cusco FC never behind 34.3% 36.4% — — 2.75
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.7% 50.9% 46.7% 1.09× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.3% 49.1% 53.3% 0.92× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 58.7% 57.9% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 41.3% 42.1% — — 2.38
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.1% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 45.9% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.1% 95.4% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 94.0% 92.3% 85.7% 1.08× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 88.0% 87.6% 92.2% 0.95× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 84.4% 82.3% 71.6% 1.15× 1.22
Under 2.5 goals 65.7% 66.3% 48.7% 1.36× 1.51
Over 1.5 goals 60.8% 61.7% 72.5% 0.85× 1.62
Under 1.5 goals 39.2% 38.3% 27.5% 1.39× 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 34.3% 33.7% 51.3% 0.66× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 15.6% 17.7% 28.4% 0.62× 5.65
Under 0.5 goals 12.0% 12.4% 7.8% 1.59× 8.07
Over 4.5 goals 6.0% 7.7% 14.3% 0.54× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 1.9% 4.6% 5.3% 0.87× 21.84
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.4% 97.2% 98.1% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.0% 97.2% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 93.4% 92.4% 83.3% 1.11× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 80.8% 81.1% 63.1% 1.28× 1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 53.3% 51.9% 34.9% 1.48× 1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 46.7% 48.1% 65.1% 0.74× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 19.2% 18.9% 36.9% 0.51× 5.28
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 6.6% 7.6% 16.7% 0.45× 13.19
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.0% 2.8% 5.8% 0.49× 35.62
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.6% 2.8% 1.9% 1.49× 35.67
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 94.3% 92.9% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 78.7% 78.2% — — 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 57.9% 64.2% — — 1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half 42.1% 35.8% — — 2.79
Over 1.5 in 1st half 21.3% 21.8% — — 4.60
Over 2.5 in 1st half 5.7% 7.1% — — 14.15
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 87.7% 85.3% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 70.4% 77.7% — — 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 66.1% 68.4% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 33.9% 31.6% — — 3.16
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 29.6% 22.3% — — 4.48
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 12.3% 14.7% — — 6.82
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC not to score in both halves 86.7% 85.6% — — 1.17
Atlético Grau not to score in both halves 81.4% 84.3% — — 1.19
Atlético Grau to score in both halves 18.6% 15.7% — — 6.35
Cusco FC to score in both halves 13.3% 14.4% — — 6.92
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 40.7% 46.6% 53.8% 0.87× 2.15
Only Atlético Grau scores 27.5% 26.1% 26.4% 0.99× 3.84
Only Cusco FC scores 19.8% 16.1% 12.3% 1.30× 6.23
Neither team scores 12.0% 11.0% 7.8% 1.42× 9.07
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 27.1% 24.9% 19.9% 1.25× 4.02
Exactly 2 goals 26.5% 24.9% 21.4% 1.16× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 18.7% 17.5% 23.0% 0.76× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 12.0% 12.1% 7.8% 1.56× 8.26
Exactly 4 goals 9.7% 7.6% 14.3% 0.53× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 4.0% 4.5% 9.2% 0.48× 22.34
6 or more goals 1.9% 4.5% 5.3% 0.85× 22.37
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 42.1% 39.4% — — 2.54
1 goal in 1st half 36.6% 37.2% — — 2.69
2 goals in 1st half 15.6% 15.7% — — 6.38
3+ goals in 1st half 5.7% 7.1% — — 14.15
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 36.4% 39.6% — — 2.53
2+ goals in 2nd half 33.9% 34.0% — — 2.94
No goals in 2nd half 29.6% 29.2% — — 3.43
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC not to win both halves 94.6% 94.2% — — 1.06
Atlético Grau not to win both halves 90.6% 94.1% — — 1.06
Atlético Grau to win both halves 9.4% 5.9% — — 16.98
Cusco FC to win both halves 5.4% 5.8% — — 17.27
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC to win neither half 58.3% 59.1% — — 1.69
Atlético Grau to win either half 52.2% 54.3% — — 1.84
Atlético Grau to win neither half 47.8% 45.7% — — 2.19
Cusco FC to win either half 41.7% 40.9% — — 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Cusco FC not to win to nil 80.2% 83.1% 87.7% 0.95× 1.20
Atlético Grau not to win to nil 72.5% 75.3% 73.6% 1.02× 1.33
Atlético Grau to win to nil 27.5% 24.7% 26.4% 0.93× 4.05
Cusco FC to win to nil 19.8% 16.9% 12.3% 1.37× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 28.9% 27.9% 25.0% 1.12× 3.59
Atlético Grau by 1 24.1% 24.1% 25.4% 0.95× 4.15
Cusco FC by 1 19.6% 17.1% 17.9% 0.95× 5.87
Atlético Grau by 2 11.6% 11.8% 13.4% 0.88× 8.51
Cusco FC by 2 7.6% 7.2% 5.6% 1.28× 13.91
Atlético Grau by 3+ 5.5% 7.2% 11.4% 0.63× 13.92
Cusco FC by 3+ 2.8% 2.7% 2.2% 1.25× 36.89
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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