Atletico Madrid v Athletic Club — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 15
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 11
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.65 – 0.69
Goals − xG
-1.02 – -1.60
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atletico Madrid win
40.0%
Draw
29.7%
Athletic Club win
30.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Athletic Club are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLLWW last 10
scored 15
from 14.7 xG
conceded 18
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.17–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atletico Madrid 2.02 xGAthletic Club 1.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atletico Madrid attacking right
Athletic Club attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Rodrigo de Paul | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
Atletico Madrid |
Robin Le Normand | 0.49 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Javi Galán |
| 10' |
 Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dani Vivian |
| 15' |
Athletic Club |
Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Unai Gómez |
| 15' |
Athletic Club |
Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.64 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Giuliano Simeone |
| 21' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikel Jauregizar |
| 30' |
Atletico Madrid |
Robin Le Normand | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Antoine Griezmann |
| 35' |
Atletico Madrid |
Samuel Lino | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexander Sørloth |
| 36' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Antoine Griezmann |
| 37' |
Athletic Club |
Alex Berenguer | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dani Vivian |
| 38' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mikel Jauregizar |
| 40' |
Athletic Club |
Alex Berenguer | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 40' |
Athletic Club |
Nico Williams | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Unai Gómez |
| 40' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Javi Galán |
| 42' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nahuel Molina |
| 50' |
Atletico Madrid |
Samuel Lino | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Rodrigo de Paul |
| 59' |
Athletic Club |
Alex Berenguer | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andoni Gorosabel |
| 59' |
Athletic Club |
Mikel Jauregizar | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Marcos Llorente |
| 72' |
Atletico Madrid |
Ángel Correa | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Athletic Club |
Beñat Prados | 0.10 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Alex Berenguer |
| 74' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.56 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 75' |
Athletic Club |
Beñat Prados | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Berenguer |
| 81' |
Athletic Club |
Iñaki Williams | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Williams |
| 87' |
Athletic Club |
Gorka Guruzeta | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yuri |
| 87' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Athletic Club
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iñaki Williams AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.03 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Nico Williams AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| Unai Simón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Yeray Álvarez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dani Vivian DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.51 |
| Yuri DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Mikel Jauregizar DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.26 |
| Alex Berenguer FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| Andoni Gorosabel DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta DMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Unai Gómez AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Gorka Guruzeta Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Beñat Prados Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Maroan Sannadi Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| De Marcos Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mikel Vesga Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robin Le Normand DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Rodrigo de Paul MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 1.28 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nahuel Molina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1.14 |
| Clement Lenglet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Javi Galán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Antoine Griezmann FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.78 |
| Alexander Sørloth FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.08 | 0.83 |
| Samuel Lino ML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Giuliano Simeone MR | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.64 | 0.88 |
| Marcos Llorente Sub | 32 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| Julián Álvarez Sub | 31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Conor Gallagher Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ángel Correa Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Giménez Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |