Atletico Madrid v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 13
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
4 – 7
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+0.91 – +1.84
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atletico Madrid win
42.6%
Draw
26.5%
Barcelona win
30.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWLWLWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.5 xG
conceded 8
from 9.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.42–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atletico Madrid 1.09 xGBarcelona 2.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atletico Madrid attacking right
Barcelona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antoine Griezmann |
| 4' |
 Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Dani Olmo |
| 9' |
Atletico Madrid |
Rodrigo de Paul | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Barrios Rivas |
| 12' |
Barcelona |
Jules Koundé | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álex Balde |
| 13' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 21' |
Atletico Madrid |
Samuel Lino | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Barrios Rivas |
| 43' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Pedri |
| 44' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Giuliano Simeone |
| 49' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.50 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 67' |
Atletico Madrid |
Clement Lenglet | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Antoine Griezmann |
| 69' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Conor Gallagher |
| 71' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Iñigo Martínez |
| 75' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 77' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Goal | Raphinha |
| 86' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 90' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rodrigo Riquelme |
| 91' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pedri |
| 97' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Raphinha |
Players
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Lewandowski FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.22 | 0.00 | 1.22 |
| Lamine Yamal AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 1.72 |
| Raphinha AML | 90 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.43 | 1.35 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.26 |
| Wojciech Szczesny GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Pedri DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1.28 |
| Iñigo Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.85 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.35 | 1.58 |
| Álex Balde DL | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.41 |
| Marc Casadó DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Dani Olmo AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1.51 |
| Ferrán Torres Sub | 21 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Eric Garcia Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Ronald Araújo Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Gerard Martín Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gavi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clement Lenglet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.55 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Marcos Llorente DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Robin Le Normand DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Reinildo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Antoine Griezmann FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.95 |
| Giuliano Simeone MR | 81 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.42 | 0.45 |
| Rodrigo de Paul MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Julián Álvarez FW | 62 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Samuel Lino ML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Alexander Sørloth Sub | 28 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Conor Gallagher Sub | 28 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Giménez Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nahuel Molina Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |