Atletico Madrid v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 22
On target
2 – 8
Shots in box
4 – 15
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.30
Goals − xG
+0.08 – -0.72
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atletico Madrid win
35.4%
Draw
25.5%
Barcelona win
39.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atletico Madrid are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWLWWWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 19.7 xG
conceded 8
from 12.2 xG
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWWWWWWWL last 10
scored 40
from 37.2 xG
conceded 11
from 11.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.51–1.59 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.88–1.94 | 1-1 8% | 73% | 73% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atletico Madrid 0.92 xGBarcelona 2.72 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atletico Madrid attacking right
Barcelona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | João Cancelo |
| 6' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nahuel Molina |
| 11' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 13' |
Atletico Madrid |
Álex Baena | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 25' |
Atletico Madrid |
Nahuel Molina | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás González |
| 31' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Baena |
| 31' |
Atletico Madrid |
Koke | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Fermín López |
| 38' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Clement Lenglet |
| 41' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Dani Olmo |
| 52' |
Barcelona |
Marc Bernal | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 53' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 55' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 57' |
Barcelona |
Pedri | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 59' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Barcelona |
João Cancelo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 64' |
Barcelona |
João Cancelo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 65' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | João Cancelo |
| 69' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 69' |
Barcelona |
João Cancelo | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 80' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 82' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | João Cancelo |
| 85' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 86' |
Barcelona |
João Cancelo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pedri |
| 86' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.63 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
Players
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 0.71 | 0.25 | 1.02 |
| João Cancelo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.21 | 1.05 |
| Pedri DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1.53 |
| Dani Olmo FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.79 | 1.52 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Gerard Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Marcus Rashford AML | 86 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.62 | 0.16 | 0.69 |
| Eric Garcia DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Fermín López AMC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| Ronald Araújo DR | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Ferrán Torres Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Marc Bernal Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jules Koundé Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Gavi Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Robert Lewandowski Sub | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nahuel Molina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.43 | 0.77 |
| Juan Musso GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Obed Vargas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Thiago Almada ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Robin Le Normand DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Clement Lenglet DC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.77 |
| Antoine Griezmann FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Giuliano Simeone MR | 68 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Álex Baena FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.34 |
| Koke MC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Nicolás González DL | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.77 |
| Matteo Ruggeri Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javier Morcillo Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giménez Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexander Sørloth Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Taufik Seidu Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |