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Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 15 February 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

1–1
0.69 – 1.45 xG
Shots
9 – 11
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.83
Goals − xG
+0.31 – -0.45
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.21.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Iago Aspas 67' — goalAlexander Sørloth 80' — goal
Atletico Madrid 0.69 xGCelta Vigo 1.45 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Marcos Alonso 8' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Fran Beltrán 16' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Fran Beltrán 28' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Giuliano Simeone 31' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Koke 32' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Giuliano Simeone 35' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Fernando López 39' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Pablo Durán 43' — Saved Shot (0.37 xG, Open Play)Fernando López 44' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Fernando López 46' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Giuliano Simeone 52' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Julián Álvarez 52' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Williot Swedberg 52' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Marcos Llorente 54' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Óscar Mingueza 65' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Iago Aspas 67' — Goal (0.74 xG, )Alexander Sørloth 78' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ángel Correa 79' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alexander Sørloth 80' — Goal (0.28 xG, Open Play)Pablo Durán 85' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)
Atletico Madrid attacking right Celta Vigo attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
8' Celta Vigo Marcos Alonso 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Sergio Carreira
16' Celta Vigo Fran Beltrán 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
28' Celta Vigo Fran Beltrán 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Javier Rodríguez
31' Atletico Madrid Giuliano Simeone 0.05 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Rodrigo de Paul
32' Atletico Madrid Koke 0.03 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
35' Atletico Madrid Giuliano Simeone 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Rodrigo de Paul
39' Celta Vigo Fernando López 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Javier Rodríguez
43' Celta Vigo Pablo Durán 0.37 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Fernando López
44' Celta Vigo Fernando López 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Sergio Carreira
46' Celta Vigo Fernando López 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Javier Rodríguez
52' Atletico Madrid Giuliano Simeone 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Giménez
52' Atletico Madrid Julián Álvarez 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
52' Celta Vigo Williot Swedberg 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Fernando López
54' Atletico Madrid Marcos Llorente 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Rodrigo de Paul
65' Celta Vigo Óscar Mingueza 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Iago Aspas
67' Celta Vigo Iago Aspas 0.74 Left Foot Goal
78' Atletico Madrid Alexander Sørloth 0.04 Open Play Blocked Shot Conor Gallagher
79' Atletico Madrid Ángel Correa 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Marcos Llorente
80' Atletico Madrid Alexander Sørloth 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Goal Giménez
85' Celta Vigo Pablo Durán 0.06 From Corner Missed Shot Hugo Sotelo

Players

Celta Vigo

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Pablo Durán FW 90 0 0 2 0 0.43 0.00 0.39
Marcos Alonso DML 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.49
Vicente Guaita GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Sergio Carreira DMR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.06 0.10
Hugo Sotelo MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.08
Carl Starfelt DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.46
Williot Swedberg FWL 76 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.08
Fernando López FWR 66 0 0 3 2 0.12 0.43 0.58
Óscar Mingueza Sub 54 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.47
Fran Beltrán MC 50 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Javier Rodríguez DC 50 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.12 0.16
Iker Losada Sub 40 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Borja Iglesias Sub 40 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Carlos Domínguez DC 36 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Iago Aspas Sub 24 1 0 1 1 0.74 0.02 0.02
Ilaix Moriba Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Atletico Madrid

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Julián Álvarez FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.21
Marcos Llorente DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.02 0.17
Giménez DC 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.36 0.44
Robin Le Normand DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jan Oblak GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Giuliano Simeone MR 82 0 0 3 0 0.19 0.00 0.20
Antoine Griezmann FW 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Rodrigo de Paul MC 82 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.16 0.11
Koke Sub 81 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.33
Javi Galán DL 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Reinildo Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.28
Samuel Lino ML 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alexander Sørloth Sub 8 1 0 2 0 0.32 0.00 0.32
Ángel Correa Sub 8 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Conor Gallagher Sub 8 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.06
Pablo Barrios Rivas MC 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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