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Atletico Madrid v Osasuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 12 January 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

1–0
2.29 – 0.39 xG
Shots
9 – 6
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 3
xG per shot
0.26 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.45 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.36 – -0.39
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.32.02.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Julián Álvarez 54' — goal
Atletico Madrid 2.36 xGOsasuna 0.39 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Julián Álvarez 12' — Saved Shot (0.58 xG, Open Play)Pablo Ibáñez 17' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jorge Herrando 23' — Missed Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Julián Álvarez 27' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Julián Álvarez 35' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Pablo Ibáñez 39' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Nahuel Molina 44' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Pablo Ibáñez 45' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Raul García 50' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Giuliano Simeone 51' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Antoine Griezmann 52' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Julián Álvarez 54' — Goal (0.45 xG, From Corner)Raul García 64' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Marcos Llorente 90' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Ángel Correa 90' — Saved Shot (0.64 xG, Open Play)
Atletico Madrid attacking right Osasuna attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
12' Atletico Madrid Julián Álvarez 0.58 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Giuliano Simeone
17' Osasuna Pablo Ibáñez 0.01 Open Play Missed Shot Rubén Peña
23' Osasuna Jorge Herrando 0.30 Open Play Missed Shot Moi Gómez
27' Atletico Madrid Julián Álvarez 0.32 Open Play Saved Shot Rodrigo de Paul
35' Atletico Madrid Julián Álvarez 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
39' Osasuna Pablo Ibáñez 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Rubén García
44' Atletico Madrid Nahuel Molina 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Rodrigo de Paul
45' Osasuna Pablo Ibáñez 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Rubén Peña
50' Osasuna Raul García 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Rubén Peña
51' Atletico Madrid Giuliano Simeone 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Antoine Griezmann
52' Atletico Madrid Antoine Griezmann 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Samuel Lino
54' Atletico Madrid Julián Álvarez 0.45 From Corner Left Foot Goal Clement Lenglet
64' Osasuna Raul García 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
90' Atletico Madrid Marcos Llorente 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
90' Atletico Madrid Ángel Correa 0.64 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot

Players

Osasuna

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jorge Herrando DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.30 0.00 0.32
Pablo Ibáñez MC 90 0 0 3 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Alejandro Catena DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Sergio Herrera GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Moi Gómez MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.30 0.30
Abel Bretones DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Rubén García FW 87 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.03
Raul García FW 80 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Lucas Torró MC 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.30
Enzo Boyomo DC 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Rubén Peña DR 65 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.05 0.34
Jon Moncayola Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jesús Areso Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Aimar Oroz Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ante Budimir Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
José Arnáiz Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Atletico Madrid

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Antoine Griezmann FW 90 0 0 1 1 0.11 0.06 0.75
Nahuel Molina DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Rodrigo de Paul MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.36 0.47
Robin Le Normand DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Pablo Barrios Rivas MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Clement Lenglet DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.45 0.11
Jan Oblak GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Javi Galán DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Julián Álvarez FW 80 1 0 4 0 1.40 0.00 1.10
Giuliano Simeone MR 75 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.58 1.00
Conor Gallagher ML 48 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Samuel Lino Sub 42 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.17
Marcos Llorente Sub 15 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.11
Ángel Correa Sub 10 0 0 1 0 0.64 0.00 0.64
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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