Atletico Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 24 April 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 12
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.33 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.35 – -1.13
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atletico Madrid win
55.0%
Draw
25.0%
Rayo Vallecano win
20.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Rayo Vallecano are finishing above their chances — 2.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
DWDDWWLDLW last 10
scored 18
from 15.8 xG
conceded 16
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–0.83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.06–0.95 | 2-0 10% | 58% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atletico Madrid 3.35 xGRayo Vallecano 1.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atletico Madrid attacking right
Rayo Vallecano attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.63 | Open Play | — | Goal | Giuliano Simeone |
| 5' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Javi Galán |
| 7' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 9' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 27' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andrei Ratiu |
| 29' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Javi Galán |
| 31' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Álvaro García | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 35' |
Atletico Madrid |
Javi Galán | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Barrios Rivas |
| 44' |
Atletico Madrid |
Conor Gallagher | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Goal | Rodrigo de Paul |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Isi Palazón | 0.56 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Álvaro García |
| 59' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Unai López | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 62' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alfonso Espino |
| 63' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Florian Lejeune | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Isi Palazón |
| 64' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 65' |
Atletico Madrid |
Marcos Llorente | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rodrigo de Paul |
| 69' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Gerard Gumbau | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro Díaz |
| 76' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Antoine Griezmann |
| 78' |
Atletico Madrid |
Conor Gallagher | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Griezmann |
| 81' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Pedro Díaz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gerard Gumbau |
| 89' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Gerard Gumbau | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Andrei Ratiu | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedro Díaz |
Players
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isi Palazón AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.05 | 1.07 |
| Andrei Ratiu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.20 | 1.06 |
| Pedro Díaz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 1.03 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Pathé Ciss DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Álvaro García AML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.56 | 0.95 |
| Randy Nteka FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Unai López DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Alfonso Espino DL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1.00 |
| Óscar Valentín DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Gerard Gumbau Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Jorge De Frutos Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pep Chavarría Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergi Guardiola Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrián Embarba Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julián Álvarez FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.43 | 1.95 |
| Marcos Llorente DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 2.26 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Clement Lenglet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.19 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 2.44 |
| Robin Le Normand DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.39 |
| Conor Gallagher ML | 83 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.81 |
| Javi Galán DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 1.06 | 1.72 |
| Rodrigo de Paul MC | 83 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 1.88 |
| Giuliano Simeone MR | 69 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 1.80 |
| Alexander Sørloth FW | 63 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2.02 | 0.00 | 2.02 |
| Antoine Griezmann Sub | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.83 | 0.93 |
| Nahuel Molina Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| César Azpilicueta Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Koke Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Lino Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |