Atletico Madrid v Real Betis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 12
On target
11 – 7
Shots in box
17 – 7
xG per shot
0.25 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
1.35 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-1.02 – +0.17
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atletico Madrid win
53.3%
Draw
23.3%
Real Betis win
23.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.74–1.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.74–1.05 | 1-1 11% | 53% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atletico Madrid 5.02 xGReal Betis 0.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atletico Madrid attacking right
Real Betis attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Samuel Lino | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Clement Lenglet |
| 5' |
Atletico Madrid |
Giuliano Simeone | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Koke |
| 9' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 16' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Atletico Madrid |
Rodrigo de Paul | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuel Lino |
| 22' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 28' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 32' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Rodrigo de Paul |
| 35' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 36' |
 Real Betis |
Cédric Bakambu | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giuliano Simeone |
| 40' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sergi Altimira |
| 41' |
Real Betis |
Romain Perraud | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 45' |
Atletico Madrid |
Robin Le Normand | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Koke |
| 47' |
Atletico Madrid |
Robin Le Normand | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Goal | Samuel Lino |
| 48' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Camilo Hernández |
| 51' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 66' |
Real Betis |
Pablo Fornals | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 72' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antoine Griezmann |
| 74' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Antoine Griezmann |
| 76' |
Real Betis |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Isco |
| 76' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 77' |
Real Betis |
Romain Perraud | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Isco |
| 78' |
Real Betis |
Aitor Ruibal | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 84' |
Atletico Madrid |
Conor Gallagher | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ángel Correa |
| 89' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.58 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ángel Correa |
| 90' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.14 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Atletico Madrid |
Ángel Correa | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Julián Álvarez |
| 96' |
Real Betis |
Juan Camilo Hernández | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Isco |
| 96' |
Real Betis |
Ángel Ortiz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 100' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Javi Galán |
| 104' |
Real Betis |
Romain Perraud | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Johnny Cardoso |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Fornals AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Johnny Cardoso DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.42 |
| Adrián GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Nobel Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aitor Ruibal DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Giovani Lo Celso AMC | 86 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.62 |
| Cédric Bakambu FW | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli AML | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergi Altimira DMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Juan Camilo Hernández Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.45 |
| Antony Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| Isco Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.15 | 0.41 |
| Ángel Ortiz Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| William Carvalho Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julián Álvarez FW | 90 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1.08 | 0.90 | 2.33 |
| Robin Le Normand DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Javi Galán DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1.25 |
| Koke MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.81 |
| Marcos Llorente DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Clement Lenglet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Giuliano Simeone MR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.50 | 1.55 |
| Samuel Lino ML | 84 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.37 | 1.21 |
| Alexander Sørloth FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.87 | 0.00 | 1.77 |
| Rodrigo de Paul MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.26 | 0.84 |
| Antoine Griezmann Sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.79 | 0.77 | 1.34 |
| Conor Gallagher Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Ángel Correa Sub | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.82 | 0.82 |
| Nahuel Molina Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Axel Witsel Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |