Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 6
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
1.95 – 0.12
Goals − xG
+2.21 – +0.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Atletico Madrid win
42.0%
Draw
20.7%
Real Madrid win
37.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Real Madrid are conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLWWWWWWL last 10
scored 20
from 21.0 xG
conceded 8
from 10.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.62–1.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.86–1.40 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Atletico Madrid 2.79 xGReal Madrid 1.03 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Atletico Madrid attacking right
Real Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Atletico Madrid |
David Hancko | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 10' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Pablo Barrios Rivas |
| 13' |
Atletico Madrid |
Robin Le Normand | 0.58 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Giuliano Simeone |
| 22' |
Atletico Madrid |
Nicolás González | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 23' |
Atletico Madrid |
Clement Lenglet | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Julián Álvarez |
| 24' |
 Real Madrid |
Kylian Mbappe-Lottin | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Arda Güler |
| 29' |
Atletico Madrid |
Pablo Barrios Rivas | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.48 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Vinícius Júnior |
| 38' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Nicolás González |
| 46' |
Real Madrid |
Arda Güler | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jude Bellingham |
| 47' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Goal | Koke |
| 50' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 58' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.41 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolás González |
| 63' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 67' |
Real Madrid |
Jude Bellingham | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Franco Mastantuono |
| 75' |
Real Madrid |
Rodrygo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álvaro Fernández |
| 87' |
Real Madrid |
Franco Mastantuono | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Álex Baena |
Players
Real Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappe-Lottin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Álvaro Fernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Vinícius Júnior AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| Thibaut Courtois GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Federico Valverde DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Aurelien Tchouameni DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Jude Bellingham AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Arda Güler AMR | 66 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.86 |
| Daniel Carvajal DR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Eder Militão DC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Raúl Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Franco Mastantuono Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Eduardo Camavinga Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrygo Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gonzalo García Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julián Álvarez FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.91 | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| Robin Le Normand DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nicolás González ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.43 | 0.08 |
| David Hancko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Clement Lenglet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Giuliano Simeone MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.00 |
| Koke MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcos Llorente DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alexander Sørloth FW | 74 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Conor Gallagher Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoine Griezmann Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Javi Galán Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álex Baena Sub | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Nahuel Molina Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |