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Atletico Madrid v Villarreal — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 25 January 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

Atletico Madrid
1–1
1.72 – 1.78 xG
Villarreal
Shots
20 – 11
On target
8 – 1
Shots in box
11 – 11
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 1.60
Goals − xG
-0.72 – -0.78
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.52.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'Gerard Moreno 28' — goalSamuel Lino 57' — goal
Atletico Madrid 1.72 xGVillarreal 1.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Julián Álvarez 3' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Thierno Barry 7' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Pablo Barrios Rivas 10' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ángel Correa 10' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Conor Gallagher 11' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Logan Costa 15' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Julián Álvarez 21' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Gerard Moreno 28' — Goal (0.74 xG, )Gerard Moreno 36' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Gerard Moreno 40' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Ángel Correa 47' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ángel Correa 48' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Samuel Lino 49' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Nahuel Molina 51' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Rodrigo de Paul 55' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Samuel Lino 57' — Goal (0.53 xG, Open Play)Logan Costa 59' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Santiago Comesaña 59' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Set Piece)César Azpilicueta 61' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Thierno Barry 62' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Set Piece)Julián Álvarez 64' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Antoine Griezmann 69' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Rodrigo de Paul 71' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ayoze Pérez 79' — Missed Shot (0.34 xG, From Corner)Julián Álvarez 81' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Direct Freekick)Pablo Barrios Rivas 83' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Samuel Lino 84' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Antoine Griezmann 85' — Missed Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)Denis Suárez 89' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Julián Álvarez 90' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Santiago Comesaña 92' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)
Atletico Madrid attacking right Villarreal attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Atletico Madrid Julián Álvarez 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Pablo Barrios Rivas
7' Villarreal Thierno Barry 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Yeremi Pino
10' Atletico Madrid Pablo Barrios Rivas 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
10' Atletico Madrid Ángel Correa 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
11' Atletico Madrid Conor Gallagher 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ángel Correa
15' Villarreal Logan Costa 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Kiko Femenía
21' Atletico Madrid Julián Álvarez 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Pablo Barrios Rivas
28' Villarreal Gerard Moreno 0.74 Left Foot Goal —
36' Villarreal Gerard Moreno 0.11 From Corner — Missed Shot Álex Baena
40' Villarreal Gerard Moreno 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Álex Baena
47' Atletico Madrid Ángel Correa 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Conor Gallagher
48' Atletico Madrid Ángel Correa 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
49' Atletico Madrid Samuel Lino 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Rodrigo de Paul
51' Atletico Madrid Nahuel Molina 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Julián Álvarez
55' Atletico Madrid Rodrigo de Paul 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Samuel Lino
57' Atletico Madrid Samuel Lino 0.53 Open Play Right Foot Goal —
59' Villarreal Logan Costa 0.06 Set Piece — Missed Shot Santiago Comesaña
59' Villarreal Santiago Comesaña 0.09 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot Logan Costa
61' Atletico Madrid César Azpilicueta 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
62' Villarreal Thierno Barry 0.09 Set Piece — Missed Shot Gerard Moreno
64' Atletico Madrid Julián Álvarez 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
69' Atletico Madrid Antoine Griezmann 0.03 Open Play — Missed Shot Rodrigo de Paul
71' Atletico Madrid Rodrigo de Paul 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Antoine Griezmann
79' Villarreal Ayoze Pérez 0.34 From Corner — Missed Shot Álex Baena
81' Atletico Madrid Julián Álvarez 0.08 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot —
83' Atletico Madrid Pablo Barrios Rivas 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Rodrigo de Paul
84' Atletico Madrid Samuel Lino 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
85' Atletico Madrid Antoine Griezmann 0.45 Open Play — Missed Shot Rodrigo de Paul
89' Villarreal Denis Suárez 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
90' Atletico Madrid Julián Álvarez 0.06 Open Play — Missed Shot Nahuel Molina
92' Villarreal Santiago Comesaña 0.11 From Corner — Missed Shot Denis Suárez

Players

Villarreal

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Santiago Comesaña MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.20 0.06 0.00
Logan Costa DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.11 0.09 0.00
Kiko Femenía DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.00
Pape Alassane Gueye MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Álex Baena ML 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.54 0.09
Sergi Cardona DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Luiz Júnior GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Willy Kambwala DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gerard Moreno FW 71 1 0 3 1 0.94 0.09 0.16
Thierno Barry FW 71 0 0 2 0 0.16 0.00 0.07
Yeremi Pino MR 71 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Ayoze Pérez Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.34 0.00 0.00
Denis Suárez Sub 19 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.11 0.03
Nicolas Pepe Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pau Cabanes De La Torre Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Atletico Madrid

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Julián Álvarez FW 90 0 0 5 1 0.30 0.04 0.37
Pablo Barrios Rivas MC 90 0 0 2 2 0.05 0.07 0.65
Nahuel Molina DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.06 0.70
Robin Le Normand DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Axel Witsel DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Jan Oblak GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Koke MC 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Ángel Correa FW 62 0 0 3 1 0.16 0.03 0.22
Conor Gallagher ML 49 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.04 0.10
Reinildo DL 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Giuliano Simeone MR 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Samuel Lino Sub 41 1 0 3 1 0.58 0.02 1.12
Rodrigo de Paul Sub 41 0 0 2 4 0.04 0.54 0.56
César Azpilicueta Sub 41 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.58
Antoine Griezmann Sub 28 0 0 2 1 0.48 0.02 0.50
Marcos Llorente Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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