Atlético-MG v Vasco da Gama — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Atlético-MG

20:00 UTC

Vasco da Gama

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 849h before kick-off

Atlético-MG win

57.7%

model 56.2%

Draw

23.1%

model 24.8%

Vasco da Gama win

19.1%

model 19.0%

582319

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.8%
1-0 10.1%
2-0 10.1%
2-1 9.9%
0-0 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.9%	Under 2.5	47.1%
BTTS yes	53.1%	BTTS no	46.9%
Atlético-MG 1+	83.8%	Atlético-MG 2+	54.3%
Vasco da Gama 1+	62.2%	Vasco da Gama 2+	25.5%

Expected goals 1.82 – 0.97. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

76/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Atlético-MG (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 49%

57.0% fair odds 1.76

moderate signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Vasco da Gama not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 827 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Atlético-MG carry the stronger rating, 1582 Elo against 1436.
Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Atlético-MG have an estimated 57.7% win probability, against 23.1% for the draw and 19.1% for Vasco da Gama. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.82 for Atlético-MG and 0.97 for Vasco da Gama.

Why Atlético-MG

Atlético-MG carry the stronger rating, 1582 Elo against 1436. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.1%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Vasco da Gama can win

Nothing in the data singles out Vasco da Gama.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Atlético-MG, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Vasco da Gama, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Atlético-MG: 50% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 16.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vasco da Gama: 50% possession, 17.2 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Atlético-MG are the model's most likely outcome at 57.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 76/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	562519	1.82–0.97	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	602416	1.90–0.88	1-1 11%	52%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to win	60.4%	58.1%	48.9%	1.19×	1.72
Draw	23.7%	24.5%	27.3%	0.90×	4.09
Vasco da Gama to win	15.9%	19.4%	24.0%	0.81×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG & not both score	34.4%	29.6%	28.1%	1.05×	3.37
Atlético-MG & both teams score	25.9%	25.2%	21.0%	1.20×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	16.5%	18.0%	20.8%	0.86×	5.57
Vasco da Gama & both teams score	8.1%	8.3%	10.3%	0.81×	12.01
Vasco da Gama & not both score	7.8%	8.3%	13.8%	0.60×	12.01
Draw & not both score	7.2%	8.3%	6.7%	1.25×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG & over 1.5	49.5%	45.1%	36.7%	1.23×	2.22
Atlético-MG & under 3.5	39.1%	34.9%	36.8%	0.95×	2.87
Atlético-MG & over 2.5	38.2%	34.9%	27.5%	1.27×	2.87
Atlético-MG & under 2.5	22.2%	21.6%	21.6%	1.00×	4.63
Atlético-MG & over 3.5	21.3%	21.6%	12.2%	1.77×	4.63
Draw & under 2.5	18.5%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.5%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.5%	18.0%	20.8%	0.87×	5.56
Vasco da Gama & over 1.5	11.3%	12.8%	17.1%	0.75×	7.79
Vasco da Gama & under 3.5	12.2%	12.8%	18.6%	0.69×	7.79
Atlético-MG & under 1.5	10.9%	12.8%	12.4%	1.04×	7.79
Vasco da Gama & over 2.5	8.9%	7.9%	13.2%	0.60×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	7.2%	7.9%	6.7%	1.19×	12.63
Vasco da Gama & under 2.5	6.9%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.2%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.63
Vasco da Gama & under 1.5	4.5%	4.8%	7.0%	0.69×	20.81
Vasco da Gama & over 3.5	3.7%	4.8%	5.6%	0.86×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (1UP)	72.4%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Vasco da Gama (1UP)	33.2%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (2UP)	60.4%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Vasco da Gama (2UP)	15.9%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to win 2nd half	48.7%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
2nd half drawn	33.8%	34.4%	—	—	2.91
Vasco da Gama to win 2nd half	17.5%	18.1%	—	—	5.51

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 in 2nd half	90.2%	91.5%	—	—	1.09
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 in 2nd half	59.1%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 in 2nd half	40.9%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 in 2nd half	9.8%	8.5%	—	—	11.78

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG under 1.5 in 2nd half	70.6%	73.9%	—	—	1.35
Atlético-MG over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.0%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Atlético-MG under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.0%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Atlético-MG over 1.5 in 2nd half	29.4%	26.1%	—	—	3.83

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (+0.5)	84.1%	82.5%	76.0%	1.09×	1.21
Vasco da Gama (+2.5)	82.4%	82.5%	90.8%	0.91×	1.21
Vasco da Gama (+1.5)	63.5%	62.9%	76.8%	0.82×	1.59
Atlético-MG (-0.5)	60.4%	62.9%	48.9%	1.29×	1.59
Vasco da Gama (+0.5)	39.6%	37.1%	51.1%	0.73×	2.70
Atlético-MG (-1.5)	36.5%	37.1%	23.2%	1.60×	2.70
Atlético-MG (-2.5)	17.6%	17.5%	9.2%	1.90×	5.73
Vasco da Gama (-0.5)	15.9%	17.5%	24.0%	0.73×	5.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to concede	85.0%	81.6%	79.7%	1.02×	1.23
Vasco da Gama clean sheet	15.0%	18.4%	20.3%	0.91×	5.43

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to concede in 1st half	55.7%	57.0%	—	—	1.76
Vasco da Gama clean sheet in 1st half	44.3%	43.0%	—	—	2.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to concede in 2nd half	66.0%	65.6%	—	—	1.53
Vasco da Gama clean sheet in 2nd half	34.0%	34.4%	—	—	2.91

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 6.5 corners	93.4%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Vasco da Gama under 5.5 corners	87.7%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Vasco da Gama under 4.5 corners	78.5%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Vasco da Gama under 3.5 corners	64.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 corners	53.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Vasco da Gama under 2.5 corners	46.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Vasco da Gama over 3.5 corners	35.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Vasco da Gama over 4.5 corners	21.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Vasco da Gama over 5.5 corners	12.3%	14.8%	—	—	6.78
Vasco da Gama over 6.5 corners	6.6%	10.1%	—	—	9.91

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.5%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
Vasco da Gama under 2.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	90.8%	1.02×	1.08
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 goals	78.1%	76.3%	71.9%	1.06×	1.31
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 goals	58.4%	59.4%	65.4%	0.91×	1.68
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 goals	41.6%	40.6%	34.6%	1.17×	2.46
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 goals	21.9%	23.7%	28.1%	0.84×	4.21
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	9.2%	0.83×	13.07
Vasco da Gama over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.5%	2.1%	1.21×	39.97

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 in 1st half	95.1%	95.9%	—	—	1.04
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 in 1st half	70.4%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 in 1st half	29.6%	31.6%	—	—	3.16
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 in 1st half	4.9%	4.1%	—	—	24.27

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama scores equally in both	49.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.08
Vasco da Gama scores more in 2nd half	31.3%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
Vasco da Gama scores more in 1st half	19.0%	17.9%	—	—	5.60

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (away no bet)	71.8%	68.4%	64.2%	1.07×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	28.2%	31.6%	35.8%	0.88×	3.16

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama even goals	58.7%	57.0%	54.9%	1.04×	1.76
Vasco da Gama odd goals	41.3%	43.0%	45.1%	0.95×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.5%	83.0%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.5%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.2%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.8%	31.7%	—	—	3.15

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.3%	55.3%	—	—	1.81
Atlético-MG to score 2+ in a row	49.5%	46.3%	—	—	2.16
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.8%	19.7%	—	—	5.08
Atlético-MG to score 3+ in a row	22.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Vasco da Gama to score 2+ in a row	14.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
Vasco da Gama to score 3+ in a row	2.8%	2.6%	—	—	38.99

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG corners (+3.5)	89.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Vasco da Gama corners (+3.5)	87.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Atlético-MG corners (+2.5)	82.5%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Vasco da Gama corners (+2.5)	79.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Atlético-MG corners (+1.5)	72.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Vasco da Gama corners (+1.5)	68.0%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Atlético-MG corners (-1.5)	32.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Vasco da Gama corners (-1.5)	27.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Atlético-MG corners (-2.5)	21.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Vasco da Gama corners (-2.5)	17.5%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Atlético-MG corners (-3.5)	12.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Vasco da Gama corners (-3.5)	10.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	78.7%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
9-11 corners	15.7%	22.5%	—	—	4.44
12+ corners	5.6%	21.0%	—	—	4.76

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	96.6%	94.7%	—	—	1.06
Under 11.5 corners	94.4%	83.5%	—	—	1.20
Under 10.5 corners	90.9%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Under 9.5 corners	85.8%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Under 8.5 corners	78.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 7.5 corners	69.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	30.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 8.5 corners	21.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 9.5 corners	14.2%	16.9%	—	—	5.91
Over 10.5 corners	9.1%	16.6%	—	—	6.02
Over 11.5 corners	5.6%	16.5%	—	—	6.06
Over 12.5 corners	3.4%	5.3%	—	—	19.03

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.3%	11.5%	13.7%	0.84×	8.72
2-0	11.2%	11.5%	9.4%	1.22×	8.72
1-0	10.9%	11.5%	12.4%	0.93×	8.72
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.50
0-0	7.2%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.51
3-0	7.1%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.51
3-1	6.2%	7.4%	4.0%	1.87×	13.51
0-1	4.5%	1.7%	7.0%	0.25×	58.29
0-2	2.4%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.31
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.32
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.32
1-2	4.6%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.29
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
2-2	4.3%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.29
2-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
3-2	2.7%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.30
3-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
4-0	3.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.30
4-1	2.9%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.30
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.80×	58.31
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.40×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.80×	58.32
Any other score	4.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.29

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (2nd half DNB)	73.6%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Vasco da Gama (2nd half DNB)	26.4%	28.7%	—	—	3.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG leading at HT (DNB)	74.9%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Vasco da Gama leading at HT (DNB)	25.1%	25.8%	—	—	3.87

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG or draw (1X)	84.1%	80.6%	76.0%	1.06×	1.24
Atlético-MG or Vasco da Gama (12)	76.3%	75.5%	72.7%	1.04×	1.32
Vasco da Gama or draw (X2)	39.6%	41.9%	51.1%	0.82×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG or draw at HT	85.2%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
Atlético-MG or Vasco da Gama at HT	58.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Vasco da Gama or draw at HT	55.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG or draw (1UP)	84.1%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Vasco da Gama or draw (1UP)	39.6%	41.4%	—	—	2.42

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG or draw in 2nd half	82.5%	81.9%	—	—	1.22
Atlético-MG or Vasco da Gama in 2nd half	66.2%	65.6%	—	—	1.52
Vasco da Gama or draw in 2nd half	51.3%	54.0%	—	—	1.85

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.0%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Neither half drawn	40.0%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (DNB)	79.2%	74.8%	67.1%	1.11×	1.34
Vasco da Gama (DNB)	20.8%	25.2%	32.9%	0.77×	3.97

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to score first	63.5%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Vasco da Gama to score first	29.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
No goal scored	7.2%	7.5%	—	—	13.42

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.5%	51.3%	51.7%	0.99×	1.95
Not both teams to score	49.5%	48.7%	48.3%	1.01×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	39.2%	38.4%	38.3%	1.00×	2.60
Not both score & under 2.5	36.3%	38.4%	38.9%	0.99×	2.60
Not both score & over 2.5	13.2%	12.4%	9.5%	1.30×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	11.3%	12.4%	13.7%	0.91×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.6%	85.6%	87.1%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.4%	14.4%	12.9%	1.12×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.7%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.3%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.5%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Both score 2nd half only	22.9%	21.3%	—	—	4.69
Both score 1st half only	12.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.32
Both score in both halves	4.4%	5.0%	—	—	20.14

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.4%	83.3%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	16.6%	16.7%	—	—	5.99

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	44.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.2%	47.2%	49.7%	0.95×	2.12
4-6 goals	27.8%	26.6%	24.3%	1.10×	3.76
0-1 goals	22.7%	22.9%	25.7%	0.89×	4.37
7+ goals	2.3%	1.8%	0.6%	2.90×	54.27

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 0	41.6%	37.3%	34.6%	1.08×	2.68
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.9%	37.5%	0.96×	2.78
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 2	16.0%	19.6%	19.0%	1.03×	5.11
Vasco da Gama to score 3+	5.9%	8.5%	9.2%	0.93×	11.72

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to score 3+	29.5%	26.6%	18.6%	1.43×	3.77
Atlético-MG to score exactly 1	28.5%	26.6%	34.3%	0.77×	3.77
Atlético-MG to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	27.1%	0.98×	3.77
Atlético-MG to score exactly 0	15.0%	18.7%	20.3%	0.92×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG leading at HT	44.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Draw at HT	41.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Vasco da Gama leading at HT	14.8%	12.4%	—	—	8.04

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG -1: 2	39.6%	37.4%	—	—	2.67
Atlético-MG -1: 1	36.5%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Atlético-MG -1: X	23.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:1)	39.6%	37.4%	51.1%	0.73×	2.68
Atlético-MG (0:1)	36.5%	37.3%	23.2%	1.61×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	23.9%	24.2%	25.9%	0.94×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:2)	63.5%	67.1%	76.8%	0.87×	1.49
Draw (0:2)	18.9%	15.3%	14.1%	1.08×	6.54
Atlético-MG (0:2)	17.6%	15.3%	9.2%	1.66×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:3)	82.4%	85.3%	90.8%	0.94×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	10.6%	9.9%	6.7%	1.49×	10.08
Atlético-MG (0:3)	7.0%	5.8%	2.7%	2.15×	17.22

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:4)	93.0%	94.5%	97.3%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.6%	1.2%	1.7%	0.70×	81.59
Atlético-MG (0:4)	2.3%	1.2%	1.1%	1.10×	81.84

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (1:0)	84.1%	81.4%	76.0%	1.07×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.5%	12.7%	14.6%	0.87×	7.88
Vasco da Gama (1:0)	5.3%	6.9%	9.5%	0.72×	14.53

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG (2:0)	94.7%	94.0%	90.5%	1.04×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.0%	2.3%	6.2%	0.37×	43.58
Vasco da Gama (2:0)	1.3%	2.3%	3.5%	0.65×	43.75

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.8%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	26.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to concede	58.4%	60.7%	65.4%	0.93×	1.65
Atlético-MG clean sheet	41.6%	39.3%	34.6%	1.14×	2.54

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG clean sheet in 1st half	70.4%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Atlético-MG to concede in 1st half	29.6%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG clean sheet in 2nd half	59.1%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Atlético-MG to concede in 2nd half	40.9%	44.9%	—	—	2.23

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG under 6.5 corners	91.8%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Atlético-MG under 5.5 corners	85.5%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Atlético-MG under 4.5 corners	75.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Atlético-MG under 3.5 corners	61.1%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Atlético-MG over 2.5 corners	57.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Atlético-MG under 2.5 corners	42.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Atlético-MG over 3.5 corners	38.9%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Atlético-MG over 4.5 corners	24.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Atlético-MG over 5.5 corners	14.5%	13.8%	—	—	7.26
Atlético-MG over 6.5 corners	8.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG under 3.5 goals	87.6%	87.3%	94.3%	0.93×	1.15
Atlético-MG over 0.5 goals	85.0%	82.2%	79.7%	1.03×	1.22
Atlético-MG under 2.5 goals	70.5%	74.2%	81.4%	0.91×	1.35
Atlético-MG over 1.5 goals	56.5%	58.6%	45.6%	1.29×	1.71
Atlético-MG under 1.5 goals	43.5%	41.4%	54.4%	0.76×	2.42
Atlético-MG over 2.5 goals	29.5%	25.8%	18.6%	1.39×	3.88
Atlético-MG under 0.5 goals	15.0%	17.8%	20.3%	0.88×	5.63
Atlético-MG over 3.5 goals	12.4%	12.7%	5.7%	2.23×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG under 1.5 in 1st half	80.3%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Atlético-MG over 0.5 in 1st half	55.7%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Atlético-MG under 0.5 in 1st half	44.3%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
Atlético-MG over 1.5 in 1st half	19.7%	16.2%	—	—	6.18

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG scores more in 2nd half	41.3%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Atlético-MG scores equally in both	31.5%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
Atlético-MG scores more in 1st half	27.2%	27.7%	—	—	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.9%	56.5%	53.3%	1.06×	1.77
Vasco da Gama (home no bet)	40.1%	43.5%	46.7%	0.93×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG even goals	51.1%	50.7%	51.6%	0.98×	1.97
Atlético-MG odd goals	48.9%	49.3%	48.4%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.3%	33.1%	—	—	3.02
HT 1-0	25.2%	28.2%	—	—	3.55
HT 0-1	10.8%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 2-0	10.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.13
HT 1-1	9.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.45
Any other HT score	5.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.50
HT 2-1	3.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.06
HT 0-2	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.17
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.19
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.4%	—	—	42.26

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG at HT / Atlético-MG at FT	38.2%	41.5%	—	—	2.41
Draw at HT / Atlético-MG at FT	19.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Vasco da Gama at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	7.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.59
Draw at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	6.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.63
Atlético-MG at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.62
Vasco da Gama at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.64
Vasco da Gama at HT / Atlético-MG at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.69
Atlético-MG at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	1.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to score last	63.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.60
Vasco da Gama to score last	29.2%	27.8%	—	—	3.60
No goal scored	7.2%	7.5%	—	—	13.42

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.8%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Atlético-MG to lead by 1 at any time	72.4%	74.2%	—	—	1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.5%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Atlético-MG to lead by 2 at any time	42.6%	39.1%	—	—	2.55
Vasco da Gama to lead by 1 at any time	33.2%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Atlético-MG to lead by 3 at any time	20.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Vasco da Gama to lead by 2 at any time	9.1%	6.7%	—	—	14.84
Vasco da Gama to lead by 3 at any time	2.0%	1.6%	—	—	62.73

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG most corners	45.4%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Vasco da Gama most corners	40.5%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	14.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.5%	87.4%	88.7%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	78.0%	78.7%	81.7%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.0%	78.7%	73.8%	1.07×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.1%	72.4%	69.7%	1.04×	1.38
1-3 goals	62.6%	63.3%	68.7%	0.92×	1.58
2-4 goals	62.6%	63.3%	62.7%	1.01×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.0%	53.2%	47.1%	1.13×	1.88
2-3 goals	47.2%	48.5%	49.7%	0.98×	2.06
3-5 goals	46.1%	48.5%	43.0%	1.13×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.4%	43.6%	45.9%	0.95×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.6%	39.2%	36.0%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	27.8%	30.2%	24.3%	1.24×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.9%	24.5%	20.2%	1.22×	4.08
5-6 goals	12.5%	14.8%	11.3%	1.31×	6.75
7+ goals	2.3%	2.6%	0.6%	4.03×	39.12

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG never behind	59.6%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Vasco da Gama never behind	20.4%	24.4%	—	—	4.10

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.9%	50.9%	49.2%	1.03×	1.96
Even number of goals	52.1%	49.1%	50.8%	0.97×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	44.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.7%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.3%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	93.8%	92.3%	95.2%	0.97×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.8%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.2%	87.6%	88.3%	0.99×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	77.3%	77.3%	74.3%	1.04×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.8%	66.3%	75.2%	0.88×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	52.4%	52.5%	47.6%	1.10×	1.90
Under 2.5 goals	47.6%	47.5%	52.4%	0.91×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	30.2%	33.7%	24.8%	1.36×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	22.7%	22.7%	25.7%	0.88×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	14.8%	12.4%	11.7%	1.06×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	7.2%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	6.2%	7.7%	4.8%	1.62×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.6%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.2%	92.4%	94.9%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.5%	81.1%	86.5%	0.94×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	69.8%	67.5%	64.9%	1.04×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	61.2%	61.9%	67.9%	0.91×	1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	38.8%	38.1%	32.1%	1.19×	2.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	30.2%	32.5%	35.1%	0.93×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.5%	18.9%	13.5%	1.40×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.8%	7.6%	5.1%	1.48×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.4%	2.8%	0.7%	4.24×	35.59

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.7%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.7%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.4%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.6%	31.4%	—	—	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.3%	31.4%	—	—	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.3%	10.8%	—	—	9.27

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.6%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.2%	79.2%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.0%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.0%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.8%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.4%	20.8%	—	—	4.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to score in both halves	87.9%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Atlético-MG not to score in both halves	63.2%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Atlético-MG to score in both halves	36.8%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Vasco da Gama to score in both halves	12.1%	14.4%	—	—	6.94

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.5%	53.8%	51.7%	1.04×	1.86
Only Atlético-MG scores	34.4%	33.3%	28.1%	1.19×	3.00
Only Vasco da Gama scores	7.8%	7.1%	13.8%	0.52×	14.04
Neither team scores	7.2%	7.1%	6.7%	1.07×	14.04

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.0%	22.6%	26.8%	0.84×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	15.5%	17.5%	19.2%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	15.4%	17.5%	13.2%	1.32×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	8.5%	7.6%	7.1%	1.07×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	7.2%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.14
6 or more goals	6.2%	7.6%	4.8%	1.60×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.0%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
No goals in 1st half	31.3%	35.8%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	21.3%	21.4%	—	—	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	11.3%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.0%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	31.6%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	20.4%	22.9%	—	—	4.38

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to win both halves	97.3%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Atlético-MG not to win both halves	78.3%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Atlético-MG to win both halves	21.7%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Vasco da Gama to win both halves	2.7%	2.8%	—	—	35.71

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG to win either half	71.1%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Vasco da Gama to win neither half	70.4%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Vasco da Gama to win either half	29.6%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Atlético-MG to win neither half	28.9%	27.1%	—	—	3.69

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to win to nil	92.2%	92.1%	86.2%	1.07×	1.09
Atlético-MG not to win to nil	65.6%	69.6%	71.9%	0.97×	1.44
Atlético-MG to win to nil	34.4%	30.4%	28.1%	1.08×	3.29
Vasco da Gama to win to nil	7.8%	7.9%	13.8%	0.57×	12.65

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético-MG by 1	23.9%	24.1%	25.9%	0.93×	4.15
Draw	23.7%	24.1%	27.3%	0.88×	4.15
Atlético-MG by 2	18.9%	17.1%	14.1%	1.21×	5.87
Atlético-MG by 3+	17.6%	17.0%	9.2%	1.85×	5.87
Vasco da Gama by 1	10.5%	11.8%	14.6%	0.80×	8.51
Vasco da Gama by 2	4.0%	2.7%	6.2%	0.44×	36.78
Vasco da Gama by 3+	1.3%	2.7%	3.5%	0.78×	36.86