Atlético Nacional v Once Caldas — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · COL-Primera A · 2627

COL-Primera A results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Atlético Nacional

20:30 UTC

Once Caldas

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 27 Oct, 10:57 · 298h before kick-off

Atlético Nacional win

60.6%

model 62.9%

Draw

21.6%

model 21.0%

Once Caldas win

17.8%

model 16.0%

612218

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (270 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.9%
1-1 9.7%
2-0 9.6%
1-0 8.0%
3-1 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	62.5%	Under 2.5	37.5%
BTTS yes	57.9%	BTTS no	42.1%
Atlético Nacional 1+	88.8%	Atlético Nacional 2+	64.3%
Once Caldas 1+	64.4%	Once Caldas 2+	27.6%

Expected goals 2.19 – 1.03. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

85/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Over 3 (void on exactly 3)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 27%

53.7% fair odds 1.86

strong signal · 700 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Atlético Nacional carry the stronger rating, 1704 Elo against 1567.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Atlético Nacional have an estimated 60.6% win probability, against 21.6% for the draw and 17.8% for Once Caldas. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.19 for Atlético Nacional and 1.03 for Once Caldas.

Why Atlético Nacional

Atlético Nacional carry the stronger rating, 1704 Elo against 1567. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.6%. Draws run at 29% in this competition.

Why Once Caldas can win

Nothing in the data singles out Once Caldas.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Atlético Nacional, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Once Caldas, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Atlético Nacional: 60% possession, 16.8 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Once Caldas: 55% possession, 17.6 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Atlético Nacional are the model's most likely outcome at 60.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.9%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	632116	2.19–1.03	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	642114	2.13–0.92	2-0 11%	59%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to win	64.3%	58.3%	45.8%	1.27×	1.72
Draw	21.2%	24.5%	29.5%	0.83×	4.09
Once Caldas to win	14.5%	13.5%	24.8%	0.54×	7.42

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional & not both score	34.3%	29.6%	27.1%	1.09×	3.38
Atlético Nacional & both teams score	30.1%	29.6%	18.8%	1.57×	3.38
Draw & both teams score	15.7%	18.0%	18.8%	0.95×	5.57
Once Caldas & both teams score	8.1%	8.3%	11.5%	0.73×	12.00
Once Caldas & not both score	6.4%	8.3%	13.4%	0.62×	12.01
Draw & not both score	5.5%	8.3%	10.8%	0.77×	12.01

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional & over 1.5	55.0%	54.8%	33.8%	1.62×	1.83
Atlético Nacional & over 2.5	44.3%	40.3%	25.5%	1.58×	2.48
Atlético Nacional & under 3.5	37.5%	34.9%	35.7%	0.98×	2.87
Atlético Nacional & over 3.5	26.8%	26.1%	10.2%	2.54×	3.84
Atlético Nacional & under 2.5	20.0%	21.6%	20.5%	1.05×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	15.7%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.5%	18.0%	23.7%	0.76×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.5%	18.0%	23.7%	0.76×	5.56
Once Caldas & over 1.5	10.9%	12.8%	16.5%	0.78×	7.79
Once Caldas & under 3.5	10.5%	12.8%	19.9%	0.64×	7.79
Atlético Nacional & under 1.5	9.3%	7.9%	12.2%	0.65×	12.63
Once Caldas & over 2.5	8.9%	7.9%	12.9%	0.61×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.9%	6.0%	1.33×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.9%	6.0%	1.33×	12.63
Once Caldas & under 2.5	5.6%	7.9%	12.1%	0.66×	12.63
Once Caldas & over 3.5	4.0%	4.8%	5.0%	0.96×	20.82
Once Caldas & under 1.5	3.6%	4.8%	8.4%	0.57×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (1UP)	76.1%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Once Caldas (1UP)	32.8%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (2UP)	64.3%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Once Caldas (2UP)	14.5%	14.1%	—	—	7.08

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to win 2nd half	52.2%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
2nd half drawn	31.1%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
Once Caldas to win 2nd half	16.7%	17.8%	—	—	5.62

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.3%	87.2%	—	—	1.15
Once Caldas under 0.5 in 2nd half	57.5%	54.4%	—	—	1.84
Once Caldas over 0.5 in 2nd half	42.5%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
Once Caldas over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.7%	12.8%	—	—	7.83

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.3%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Atlético Nacional under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.42
Atlético Nacional over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Atlético Nacional under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.7%	25.7%	—	—	3.89

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (+0.5)	85.5%	88.5%	75.2%	1.18×	1.13
Once Caldas (+2.5)	78.4%	78.5%	91.8%	0.85×	1.27
Atlético Nacional (-0.5)	64.3%	63.0%	45.8%	1.37×	1.59
Once Caldas (+1.5)	58.7%	57.1%	79.6%	0.72×	1.75
Atlético Nacional (-1.5)	41.3%	42.9%	20.4%	2.11×	2.33
Once Caldas (+0.5)	35.7%	37.0%	54.2%	0.68×	2.70
Atlético Nacional (-2.5)	21.6%	21.5%	8.2%	2.63×	4.65
Once Caldas (-0.5)	14.5%	11.5%	24.8%	0.47×	8.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas to concede	88.1%	86.3%	75.9%	1.14×	1.16
Once Caldas clean sheet	11.9%	13.7%	24.1%	0.57×	7.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas to concede in 1st half	60.0%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Once Caldas clean sheet in 1st half	40.0%	43.4%	—	—	2.30

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas to concede in 2nd half	70.3%	71.1%	—	—	1.41
Once Caldas clean sheet in 2nd half	29.7%	28.9%	—	—	3.46

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas under 6.5 corners	87.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Once Caldas under 5.5 corners	79.1%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Once Caldas under 4.5 corners	67.1%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Once Caldas over 2.5 corners	66.4%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Once Caldas under 3.5 corners	51.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Once Caldas over 3.5 corners	48.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Once Caldas under 2.5 corners	33.6%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Once Caldas over 4.5 corners	32.9%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Once Caldas over 5.5 corners	20.9%	23.9%	—	—	4.18
Once Caldas over 6.5 corners	12.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas under 3.5 goals	98.5%	97.5%	98.1%	0.99×	1.03
Once Caldas under 2.5 goals	93.3%	92.4%	92.9%	0.99×	1.08
Once Caldas under 1.5 goals	76.4%	76.2%	74.2%	1.03×	1.31
Once Caldas over 0.5 goals	60.3%	63.2%	62.2%	1.02×	1.58
Once Caldas under 0.5 goals	39.7%	36.8%	37.8%	0.97×	2.72
Once Caldas over 1.5 goals	23.6%	23.8%	25.8%	0.92×	4.21
Once Caldas over 2.5 goals	6.7%	7.6%	7.1%	1.08×	13.08
Once Caldas over 3.5 goals	1.5%	2.5%	1.9%	1.29×	39.89

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas under 1.5 in 1st half	94.7%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Once Caldas under 0.5 in 1st half	69.1%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Once Caldas over 0.5 in 1st half	30.9%	29.6%	—	—	3.38
Once Caldas over 1.5 in 1st half	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.69

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas scores equally in both	48.3%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
Once Caldas scores more in 2nd half	32.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Once Caldas scores more in 1st half	19.5%	18.2%	—	—	5.50

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (away no bet)	75.2%	73.4%	60.8%	1.21×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	24.8%	26.6%	39.2%	0.68×	3.76

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas even goals	57.9%	56.9%	57.6%	0.99×	1.76
Once Caldas odd goals	42.1%	43.1%	42.4%	1.02×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.6%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.4%	16.9%	—	—	5.90

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.5%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.5%	32.5%	—	—	3.08

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	64.8%	60.1%	—	—	1.66
Atlético Nacional to score 2+ in a row	55.5%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row	29.7%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Atlético Nacional to score 3+ in a row	27.0%	24.9%	—	—	4.01
Once Caldas to score 2+ in a row	15.3%	16.1%	—	—	6.21
Once Caldas to score 3+ in a row	3.0%	2.6%	—	—	39.14

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional corners (+3.5)	94.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Atlético Nacional corners (+2.5)	90.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Atlético Nacional corners (+1.5)	85.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Atlético Nacional corners (-1.5)	60.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Once Caldas corners (+3.5)	59.5%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Atlético Nacional corners (-2.5)	50.3%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Once Caldas corners (+2.5)	49.7%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Atlético Nacional corners (-3.5)	40.5%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Once Caldas corners (+1.5)	39.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Once Caldas corners (-1.5)	14.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Once Caldas corners (-2.5)	9.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Once Caldas corners (-3.5)	5.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	37.0%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
12+ corners	34.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	28.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	72.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	72.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.1%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	63.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.3%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.7%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	37.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 11.5 corners	34.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	27.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	27.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	10.7%	11.5%	8.4%	1.36×	8.72
1-1	10.0%	11.5%	13.0%	0.88×	8.72
1-0	9.3%	7.4%	12.2%	0.61×	13.51
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	10.9%	0.68×	13.51
3-0	7.6%	7.4%	4.6%	1.62×	13.51
3-1	7.0%	7.4%	3.5%	2.14×	13.51
Any other score	6.7%	7.4%	2.4%	3.14×	13.51
0-0	5.5%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.51
0-1	3.6%	1.7%	8.4%	0.20×	58.30
0-2	2.0%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.31
0-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.55×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	3.10×	58.32
1-2	4.3%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.30
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.4%	1.24×	58.31
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.32
2-2	4.6%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.29
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.9%	0.88×	58.31
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	12.38×	58.32
3-2	3.2%	1.7%	2.4%	0.73×	58.30
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.06×	58.31
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.19×	58.32
4-0	4.1%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.30
4-1	3.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.30
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	0.7%	2.48×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	3.10×	58.32
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	12.38×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (2nd half DNB)	75.8%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Once Caldas (2nd half DNB)	24.2%	20.6%	—	—	4.85

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional leading at HT (DNB)	76.9%	75.1%	—	—	1.33
Once Caldas leading at HT (DNB)	23.1%	24.9%	—	—	4.02

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional or draw (1X)	85.5%	86.5%	75.2%	1.15×	1.16
Atlético Nacional or Once Caldas (12)	78.8%	75.5%	70.5%	1.07×	1.32
Once Caldas or draw (X2)	35.7%	41.7%	54.2%	0.77×	2.40

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional or draw at HT	85.7%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
Atlético Nacional or Once Caldas at HT	61.9%	60.9%	—	—	1.64
Once Caldas or draw at HT	52.4%	48.5%	—	—	2.06

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional or draw (1UP)	85.5%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Once Caldas or draw (1UP)	35.7%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional or draw in 2nd half	83.3%	82.2%	—	—	1.22
Atlético Nacional or Once Caldas in 2nd half	68.9%	66.0%	—	—	1.51
Once Caldas or draw in 2nd half	47.8%	48.1%	—	—	2.08

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.5%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	43.5%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (DNB)	81.6%	80.3%	64.9%	1.24×	1.25
Once Caldas (DNB)	18.4%	19.7%	35.1%	0.56×	5.09

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to score first	66.0%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Once Caldas to score first	28.6%	28.0%	—	—	3.57
No goal scored	5.5%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.9%	51.3%	48.9%	1.05×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.1%	48.7%	51.1%	0.95×	2.05

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.8%	41.6%	36.0%	1.16×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	31.1%	34.6%	43.1%	0.80×	2.89
Not both score & over 2.5	15.0%	21.5%	8.2%	2.63×	4.66
Both score & under 2.5	10.0%	12.4%	13.0%	0.95×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.2%	85.6%	88.6%	0.97×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.8%	14.4%	11.4%	1.27×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.8%	67.4%	—	—	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.2%	32.6%	—	—	3.06

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.7%	60.1%	—	—	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	24.6%	21.3%	—	—	4.69
Both score 1st half only	13.1%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	5.5%	6.7%	—	—	14.83

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.3%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	18.7%	16.6%	—	—	6.03

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.4%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
A half without a goal	39.6%	40.7%	—	—	2.46

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.2%	47.2%	48.1%	0.98×	2.12
4-6 goals	32.9%	30.7%	19.5%	1.57×	3.25
0-1 goals	18.4%	20.2%	31.2%	0.65×	4.94
7+ goals	3.6%	1.8%	1.5%	1.21×	54.20

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas to score exactly 0	39.7%	35.9%	37.8%	0.95×	2.78
Once Caldas to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.9%	36.6%	0.98×	2.78
Once Caldas to score exactly 2	16.9%	19.5%	18.8%	1.04×	5.12
Once Caldas to score 3+	6.7%	8.5%	7.1%	1.21×	11.71

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to score 3+	35.9%	35.5%	15.5%	2.29×	2.81
Atlético Nacional to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.6%	26.2%	1.01×	3.77
Atlético Nacional to score exactly 1	25.3%	26.6%	34.5%	0.77×	3.77
Atlético Nacional to score exactly 0	11.9%	14.3%	24.1%	0.59×	7.00

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional leading at HT	47.6%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
Draw at HT	38.1%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Once Caldas leading at HT	14.3%	11.9%	—	—	8.40

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional -1: 1	41.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Atlético Nacional -1: 2	35.7%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Atlético Nacional -1: X	23.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (0:1)	41.3%	42.6%	20.4%	2.09×	2.35
Once Caldas (0:1)	35.7%	37.3%	54.2%	0.69×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	23.0%	24.2%	25.6%	0.95×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas (0:2)	58.7%	63.3%	79.6%	0.79×	1.58
Atlético Nacional (0:2)	21.6%	20.3%	8.2%	2.48×	4.94
Draw (0:2)	19.7%	15.3%	12.3%	1.24×	6.55

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas (0:3)	78.4%	80.7%	91.8%	0.88×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.2%	9.9%	5.4%	1.83×	10.12
Atlético Nacional (0:3)	9.4%	5.8%	2.9%	2.00×	17.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas (0:4)	90.6%	94.5%	97.1%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.9%	4.6%	1.9%	2.38×	21.66
Atlético Nacional (0:4)	3.5%	1.2%	1.1%	1.11×	81.58

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (1:0)	85.5%	86.1%	75.2%	1.14×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	9.5%	6.9%	17.3%	0.40×	14.46
Once Caldas (1:0)	4.9%	3.3%	7.6%	0.43×	30.37

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional (2:0)	95.1%	96.8%	92.4%	1.05×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.7%	2.3%	5.0%	0.46×	43.70
Once Caldas (2:0)	1.2%	2.3%	2.8%	0.82×	43.85

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.1%	48.6%	—	—	2.06
1st half highest scoring	27.4%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	24.4%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to concede	60.3%	63.6%	62.2%	1.02×	1.57
Atlético Nacional clean sheet	39.7%	36.4%	37.8%	0.96×	2.75

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional clean sheet in 1st half	69.1%	70.8%	—	—	1.41
Atlético Nacional to concede in 1st half	30.9%	29.2%	—	—	3.42

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional clean sheet in 2nd half	57.5%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Atlético Nacional to concede in 2nd half	42.5%	45.2%	—	—	2.21

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional over 2.5 corners	89.5%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Atlético Nacional over 3.5 corners	80.1%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Atlético Nacional over 4.5 corners	68.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Atlético Nacional over 5.5 corners	56.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Atlético Nacional under 6.5 corners	55.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Atlético Nacional over 6.5 corners	44.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Atlético Nacional under 5.5 corners	43.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Atlético Nacional under 4.5 corners	31.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Atlético Nacional under 3.5 corners	19.9%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
Atlético Nacional under 2.5 corners	10.5%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional over 0.5 goals	88.1%	87.3%	75.9%	1.15×	1.15
Atlético Nacional under 3.5 goals	83.3%	82.2%	95.3%	0.86×	1.22
Atlético Nacional under 2.5 goals	64.1%	63.6%	84.5%	0.75×	1.57
Atlético Nacional over 1.5 goals	62.8%	63.6%	41.6%	1.53×	1.57
Atlético Nacional under 1.5 goals	37.2%	36.4%	58.4%	0.62×	2.75
Atlético Nacional over 2.5 goals	35.9%	36.4%	15.5%	2.35×	2.75
Atlético Nacional over 3.5 goals	16.7%	17.8%	4.7%	3.78×	5.62
Atlético Nacional under 0.5 goals	11.9%	12.7%	24.1%	0.53×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional under 1.5 in 1st half	76.7%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
Atlético Nacional over 0.5 in 1st half	60.0%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Atlético Nacional under 0.5 in 1st half	40.0%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Atlético Nacional over 1.5 in 1st half	23.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional scores more in 2nd half	42.9%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
Atlético Nacional scores equally in both	29.3%	27.9%	—	—	3.59
Atlético Nacional scores more in 1st half	27.8%	27.9%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.4%	56.4%	54.3%	1.04×	1.77
Once Caldas (home no bet)	40.6%	43.6%	45.7%	0.95×	2.30

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional even goals	50.7%	50.7%	53.3%	0.95×	1.97
Atlético Nacional odd goals	49.3%	49.3%	46.7%	1.06×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.8%	28.5%	—	—	3.52
HT 1-0	25.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.53
HT 2-0	11.6%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 0-1	10.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.12
HT 1-1	9.5%	6.9%	—	—	14.51
Any other HT score	7.1%	6.9%	—	—	14.55
HT 2-1	4.3%	2.4%	—	—	42.14
HT 0-2	1.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.30
HT 1-2	1.7%	2.4%	—	—	42.31
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.37

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional at HT / Atlético Nacional at FT	41.8%	40.7%	—	—	2.46
Draw at HT / Atlético Nacional at FT	19.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Once Caldas at HT / Once Caldas at FT	7.3%	6.1%	—	—	16.49
Draw at HT / Once Caldas at FT	5.9%	6.1%	—	—	16.52
Atlético Nacional at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Once Caldas at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Once Caldas at HT / Atlético Nacional at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
Atlético Nacional at HT / Once Caldas at FT	1.3%	3.4%	—	—	28.99

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to score last	66.1%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Once Caldas to score last	28.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.65
No goal scored	5.5%	7.5%	—	—	13.32

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.5%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Atlético Nacional to lead by 1 at any time	76.1%	77.9%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	56.6%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Atlético Nacional to lead by 2 at any time	47.9%	44.3%	—	—	2.26
Once Caldas to lead by 1 at any time	32.8%	29.7%	—	—	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	26.7%	25.3%	—	—	3.96
Atlético Nacional to lead by 3 at any time	24.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Once Caldas to lead by 2 at any time	9.0%	6.7%	—	—	14.97
Once Caldas to lead by 3 at any time	2.0%	1.6%	—	—	63.30

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional most corners	70.0%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Once Caldas most corners	21.5%	25.9%	—	—	3.87
Corners level	8.5%	8.3%	—	—	11.99

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.6%	87.4%	85.7%	1.02×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.0%	78.7%	67.5%	1.17×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.2%	78.7%	80.1%	0.98×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.7%	72.3%	65.4%	1.11×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.3%	63.3%	59.7%	1.06×	1.58
1-3 goals	58.1%	59.1%	68.4%	0.86×	1.69
3-6 goals	55.3%	59.1%	42.7%	1.39×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.0%	48.5%	40.6%	1.19×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.2%	48.4%	48.1%	1.01×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.5%	39.2%	34.9%	1.12×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.7%	39.2%	45.3%	0.86×	2.55
4-6 goals	32.9%	35.2%	19.5%	1.80×	2.84
4-5 goals	27.5%	30.2%	17.5%	1.73×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.8%	18.8%	7.9%	2.38×	5.31
7+ goals	3.6%	2.6%	1.5%	1.68×	39.11

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional never behind	61.8%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Once Caldas never behind	18.4%	18.4%	—	—	5.43

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.4%	50.9%	50.4%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.6%	49.1%	49.6%	0.99×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.1%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.9%	48.2%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	89.2%	1.03×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.1%	92.3%	96.4%	0.96×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.6%	82.3%	68.8%	1.20×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	80.6%	82.3%	90.7%	0.91×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	63.5%	61.7%	79.1%	0.78×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	58.9%	58.6%	44.0%	1.33×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	41.1%	41.4%	56.0%	0.74×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	36.5%	38.3%	20.9%	1.83×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	19.4%	17.7%	9.3%	1.91×	5.65
Under 1.5 goals	18.4%	17.7%	31.2%	0.57×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.9%	7.7%	3.6%	2.15×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	10.8%	0.72×	12.94

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.2%	97.2%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.0%	92.4%	96.2%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.6%	75.9%	89.5%	0.85×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.2%	75.9%	58.6%	1.30×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	53.0%	51.9%	72.8%	0.71×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.0%	48.1%	27.2%	1.77×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.8%	24.1%	41.4%	0.58×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.4%	24.1%	10.5%	2.30×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.0%	7.6%	3.8%	1.99×	13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.8%	2.8%	1.6%	1.81×	35.58

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.0%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.2%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.8%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.09

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.7%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.9%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.1%	22.2%	—	—	4.50
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.3%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas not to score in both halves	86.9%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Atlético Nacional not to score in both halves	57.8%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Atlético Nacional to score in both halves	42.2%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Once Caldas to score in both halves	13.1%	14.4%	—	—	6.93

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.9%	53.8%	48.9%	1.10×	1.86
Only Atlético Nacional scores	34.3%	33.3%	27.1%	1.23×	3.00
Only Once Caldas scores	6.4%	7.1%	13.4%	0.53×	14.01
Neither team scores	5.5%	7.1%	10.8%	0.66×	14.02

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.8%	22.6%	24.9%	0.91×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.3%	0.97×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.1%	17.5%	11.8%	1.48×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	12.9%	12.1%	20.5%	0.59×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	10.4%	12.1%	5.8%	2.08×	8.26
6 or more goals	8.9%	7.6%	3.6%	2.11×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	5.5%	7.6%	10.8%	0.70×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.3%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
No goals in 1st half	27.8%	28.6%	—	—	3.49
2 goals in 1st half	23.0%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	14.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.17

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.0%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	29.7%	29.2%	—	—	3.43
No goals in 2nd half	17.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.96

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas not to win both halves	97.6%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Atlético Nacional not to win both halves	74.9%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Atlético Nacional to win both halves	25.1%	25.9%	—	—	3.87
Once Caldas to win both halves	2.4%	2.8%	—	—	36.23

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional to win either half	74.8%	73.2%	—	—	1.37
Once Caldas to win neither half	71.5%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Once Caldas to win either half	28.5%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
Atlético Nacional to win neither half	25.2%	26.8%	—	—	3.73

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Once Caldas not to win to nil	93.6%	92.1%	86.6%	1.06×	1.09
Atlético Nacional not to win to nil	65.7%	69.7%	72.9%	0.96×	1.44
Atlético Nacional to win to nil	34.3%	30.3%	27.1%	1.12×	3.30
Once Caldas to win to nil	6.4%	7.9%	13.4%	0.59×	12.67

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Atlético Nacional by 1	23.0%	24.1%	25.6%	0.94×	4.15
Atlético Nacional by 3+	21.6%	24.1%	8.2%	2.95×	4.15
Draw	21.2%	24.1%	29.5%	0.82×	4.15
Atlético Nacional by 2	19.7%	17.1%	12.3%	1.38×	5.86
Once Caldas by 1	9.5%	7.2%	17.3%	0.42×	13.90
Once Caldas by 2	3.7%	2.7%	5.0%	0.54×	36.86
Once Caldas by 3+	1.2%	2.7%	2.8%	0.98×	36.93