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Atlético Tucumán v Argentinos Juniors — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Atlético Tucumán win
27.4%
model 26.9%
Draw
29.4%
model 30.8%
Argentinos Juniors win
43.2%
model 42.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-1 14.2%
  2. 1-1 13.8%
  3. 0-0 13.0%
  4. 1-0 10.5%
  5. 0-2 8.8%

Goals

Over 2.534.6% Under 2.565.4%
BTTS yes41.7% BTTS no58.3%
Atlético Tucumán 1+59.1% Atlético Tucumán 2+22.5%
Argentinos Juniors 1+69.6% Argentinos Juniors 2+33.4%

Expected goals 0.89 – 1.19. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
24/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Argentinos Juniors or draw (X2)
Double chance · usually 58%
72.7% fair odds 1.38
strong signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Atlético Tucumán not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.3% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 829 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Argentinos Juniors carry the stronger rating, 1647 Elo against 1455.

Risk factors

  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0026 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Argentinos Juniors have an estimated 43.2% win probability, against 29.4% for the draw and 27.4% for Atlético Tucumán. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.89 for Atlético Tucumán and 1.19 for Argentinos Juniors.

Why Atlético Tucumán

Nothing in the data singles out Atlético Tucumán.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.4%. A combined 2.08 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Argentinos Juniors can win

Argentinos Juniors carry the stronger rating, 1647 Elo against 1455.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Atlético Tucumán, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Argentinos Juniors, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Atlético Tucumán: 45% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Argentinos Juniors: 63% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Argentinos Juniors are the model's most likely outcome at 43.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 14.2%. Confidence 24/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.89–1.19 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.76–1.06 0-0 17% 27% 35%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors to win 41.4% 42.9% 27.6% 1.56× 2.33
Draw 33.3% 30.4% 30.7% 0.99× 3.29
Atlético Tucumán to win 25.3% 27.9% 41.8% 0.67× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors & not both score 29.9% 25.2% 17.1% 1.47× 3.97
Atlético Tucumán & not both score 17.9% 18.0% 27.7% 0.65× 5.56
Draw & not both score 16.8% 18.0% 14.8% 1.21× 5.57
Draw & both teams score 16.5% 18.0% 16.0% 1.13× 5.57
Argentinos Juniors & both teams score 11.5% 13.3% 10.6% 1.25× 7.54
Atlético Tucumán & both teams score 7.4% 8.3% 14.3% 0.58× 12.00
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors & under 3.5 35.7% 34.9% 23.5% 1.48× 2.87
Draw & under 2.5 30.5% 30.7% 28.2% 1.09× 3.25
Draw & under 3.5 30.5% 30.7% 28.2% 1.09× 3.25
Argentinos Juniors & under 2.5 25.6% 26.1% 14.6% 1.79× 3.84
Argentinos Juniors & over 1.5 24.8% 21.6% 17.4% 1.24× 4.63
Atlético Tucumán & under 3.5 22.6% 21.6% 34.8% 0.62× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 16.5% 18.0% 16.0% 1.13× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 16.8% 18.0% 14.8% 1.21× 5.56
Argentinos Juniors & under 1.5 16.6% 18.0% 10.3% 1.75× 5.56
Atlético Tucumán & under 2.5 16.5% 18.0% 23.6% 0.76× 5.56
Argentinos Juniors & over 2.5 15.7% 18.0% 13.1% 1.37× 5.56
Atlético Tucumán & over 1.5 13.5% 12.8% 27.8% 0.46× 7.79
Atlético Tucumán & under 1.5 11.8% 12.8% 14.1% 0.91× 7.79
Atlético Tucumán & over 2.5 8.8% 7.9% 18.4% 0.43× 12.63
Argentinos Juniors & over 3.5 5.6% 7.9% 4.2% 1.88× 12.63
Atlético Tucumán & over 3.5 2.7% 4.8% 7.2% 0.67× 20.83
Draw & over 2.5 2.9% 4.8% 2.6% 1.83× 20.82
Draw & over 3.5 2.9% 4.8% 2.6% 1.83× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (1UP) 52.6% 52.4% — — 1.91
Atlético Tucumán (1UP) 37.8% 34.2% — — 2.93
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (2UP) 41.4% 47.0% — — 2.13
Atlético Tucumán (2UP) 25.3% 25.1% — — 3.99
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 44.9% 42.1% — — 2.37
Argentinos Juniors to win 2nd half 34.1% 34.0% — — 2.94
Atlético Tucumán to win 2nd half 21.0% 24.2% — — 4.13
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors under 1.5 in 2nd half 86.7% 87.1% — — 1.15
Argentinos Juniors under 0.5 in 2nd half 53.0% 52.4% — — 1.91
Argentinos Juniors over 0.5 in 2nd half 47.0% 47.6% — — 2.10
Argentinos Juniors over 1.5 in 2nd half 13.3% 12.9% — — 7.74
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán under 1.5 in 2nd half 92.9% 94.4% — — 1.06
Atlético Tucumán under 0.5 in 2nd half 64.8% 63.3% — — 1.58
Atlético Tucumán over 0.5 in 2nd half 35.2% 36.7% — — 2.72
Atlético Tucumán over 1.5 in 2nd half 7.1% 5.6% — — 17.85
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (+2.5) 98.2% 96.3% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
Argentinos Juniors (+1.5) 92.1% 92.1% 82.3% 1.12× 1.09
Argentinos Juniors (+0.5) 74.7% 73.7% 58.2% 1.27× 1.36
Atlético Tucumán (+0.5) 58.7% 57.1% 72.4% 0.79× 1.75
Argentinos Juniors (-0.5) 41.4% 42.9% 27.6% 1.56× 2.33
Atlético Tucumán (-0.5) 25.3% 26.3% 41.8% 0.63× 3.80
Atlético Tucumán (-1.5) 7.9% 7.9% 17.7% 0.45× 12.70
Atlético Tucumán (-2.5) 1.8% 3.7% 5.0% 0.73× 27.23
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors to concede 53.3% 55.8% 68.2% 0.82× 1.79
Argentinos Juniors clean sheet 46.7% 44.2% 31.8% 1.39× 2.27
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors clean sheet in 1st half 72.1% 75.8% — — 1.32
Argentinos Juniors to concede in 1st half 27.9% 24.2% — — 4.13
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors clean sheet in 2nd half 64.8% 61.9% — — 1.61
Argentinos Juniors to concede in 2nd half 35.2% 38.1% — — 2.63
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors under 6.5 corners 84.4% 81.4% — — 1.23
Argentinos Juniors under 5.5 corners 74.4% 71.6% — — 1.40
Argentinos Juniors over 2.5 corners 73.4% 71.6% — — 1.40
Argentinos Juniors under 4.5 corners 60.7% 61.7% — — 1.62
Argentinos Juniors over 3.5 corners 56.0% 57.2% — — 1.75
Argentinos Juniors under 3.5 corners 44.0% 42.8% — — 2.34
Argentinos Juniors over 4.5 corners 39.3% 38.3% — — 2.61
Argentinos Juniors under 2.5 corners 26.6% 28.4% — — 3.53
Argentinos Juniors over 5.5 corners 25.6% 28.4% — — 3.53
Argentinos Juniors over 6.5 corners 15.6% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors under 3.5 goals 97.7% 97.5% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Argentinos Juniors under 2.5 goals 90.9% 92.3% 93.4% 0.99× 1.08
Argentinos Juniors under 1.5 goals 71.5% 71.8% 78.2% 0.92× 1.39
Argentinos Juniors over 0.5 goals 65.3% 68.0% 57.6% 1.18× 1.47
Argentinos Juniors under 0.5 goals 34.8% 32.0% 42.4% 0.75× 3.12
Argentinos Juniors over 1.5 goals 28.5% 28.2% 21.8% 1.29× 3.55
Argentinos Juniors over 2.5 goals 9.1% 7.7% 6.6% 1.16× 13.05
Argentinos Juniors over 3.5 goals 2.3% 2.5% 1.1% 2.20× 39.85
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors under 1.5 in 1st half 93.2% 94.0% — — 1.06
Argentinos Juniors under 0.5 in 1st half 65.5% 70.1% — — 1.43
Argentinos Juniors over 0.5 in 1st half 34.5% 29.9% — — 3.35
Argentinos Juniors over 1.5 in 1st half 6.8% 6.0% — — 16.55
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors scores equally in both 44.7% 43.8% — — 2.29
Argentinos Juniors scores more in 2nd half 34.6% 33.3% — — 3.00
Argentinos Juniors scores more in 1st half 20.7% 21.7% — — 4.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 56.9% 57.3% 42.3% 1.36× 1.74
Atlético Tucumán (away no bet) 43.1% 42.7% 57.7% 0.74× 2.34
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors even goals 56.0% 56.9% 58.4% 0.97× 1.76
Argentinos Juniors odd goals 44.0% 43.1% 41.6% 1.04× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 95.0% 92.2% — — 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 5.0% 7.8% — — 12.85
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 58.5% 60.5% — — 1.65
Not both halves under 1.5 41.5% 39.5% — — 2.53
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 36.2% 36.4% — — 2.75
Argentinos Juniors to score 2+ in a row 24.2% 19.6% — — 5.11
Atlético Tucumán to score 2+ in a row 13.9% 12.2% — — 8.20
Either team to score 3+ in a row 9.4% 5.5% — — 18.03
Argentinos Juniors to score 3+ in a row 6.7% 5.5% — — 18.24
Atlético Tucumán to score 3+ in a row 2.7% 2.5% — — 39.30
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán corners (+3.5) 86.1% 84.5% — — 1.18
Argentinos Juniors corners (+3.5) 85.2% 84.5% — — 1.18
Atlético Tucumán corners (+2.5) 78.4% 74.8% — — 1.34
Argentinos Juniors corners (+2.5) 77.3% 74.8% — — 1.34
Atlético Tucumán corners (+1.5) 68.6% 65.9% — — 1.52
Argentinos Juniors corners (+1.5) 67.2% 65.9% — — 1.52
Atlético Tucumán corners (-1.5) 32.8% 34.1% — — 2.93
Argentinos Juniors corners (-1.5) 31.4% 34.1% — — 2.93
Atlético Tucumán corners (-2.5) 22.7% 25.2% — — 3.97
Argentinos Juniors corners (-2.5) 21.6% 25.2% — — 3.97
Atlético Tucumán corners (-3.5) 14.8% 15.5% — — 6.45
Argentinos Juniors corners (-3.5) 13.9% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 55.3% 46.5% — — 2.15
9-11 corners 27.6% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 17.1% 22.5% — — 4.44
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 88.5% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 82.9% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 10.5 corners 75.5% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 9.5 corners 66.2% 67.8% — — 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 56.6% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 8.5 corners 55.3% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 44.7% 42.1% — — 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 43.4% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 33.8% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 10.5 corners 24.5% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 11.5 corners 17.1% 19.3% — — 5.17
Over 12.5 corners 11.5% 16.9% — — 5.92
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-0 16.8% 13.8% 14.8% 0.93× 7.23
0-1 16.6% 13.8% 10.3% 1.35× 7.23
1-1 13.6% 11.5% 13.5% 0.85× 8.71
1-0 11.8% 11.5% 14.1% 0.81× 8.71
0-2 9.1% 7.4% 4.4% 1.66× 13.51
1-2 6.9% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.51
2-1 5.0% 1.7% 8.7% 0.20× 58.29
0-3 3.2% 1.7% 2.1% 0.84× 58.30
0-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% 3.01× 58.31
1-3 2.4% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.31
1-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
2-0 4.7% 1.7% 9.6% 0.18× 58.29
2-2 2.6% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.30
2-3 0.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.31
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 15.04× 58.32
3-0 1.2% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.31
3-1 1.3% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.31
3-2 0.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.32
3-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 15.04× 58.32
4-0 0.2% 1.7% 1.1% 1.50× 58.32
4-1 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.15× 58.32
4-2 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
4-3 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.52× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.52× 58.32
Any other score 0.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.32
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (2nd half DNB) 62.0% 62.9% — — 1.59
Atlético Tucumán (2nd half DNB) 38.0% 37.1% — — 2.70
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors leading at HT (DNB) 57.6% 55.6% — — 1.80
Atlético Tucumán leading at HT (DNB) 42.4% 44.4% — — 2.25
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors or draw (X2) 74.7% 72.1% 58.2% 1.24× 1.39
Atlético Tucumán or Argentinos Juniors (12) 66.7% 69.6% 69.3% 1.00× 1.44
Atlético Tucumán or draw (1X) 58.7% 57.1% 72.4% 0.79× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors or draw at HT 80.6% 84.0% — — 1.19
Atlético Tucumán or draw at HT 73.6% 74.5% — — 1.34
Atlético Tucumán or Argentinos Juniors at HT 45.8% 51.1% — — 1.96
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors or draw (1UP) 74.7% 79.8% — — 1.25
Atlético Tucumán or draw (1UP) 58.7% 63.1% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors or draw in 2nd half 79.0% 75.8% — — 1.32
Atlético Tucumán or draw in 2nd half 65.9% 66.0% — — 1.52
Atlético Tucumán or Argentinos Juniors in 2nd half 55.1% 57.9% — — 1.73
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 74.2% 71.8% — — 1.39
Neither half drawn 25.8% 28.2% — — 3.54
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (DNB) 62.0% 62.7% 39.7% 1.58× 1.60
Atlético Tucumán (DNB) 38.0% 37.3% 60.3% 0.62× 2.68
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors to score first 48.4% 45.9% — — 2.18
Atlético Tucumán to score first 34.8% 28.0% — — 3.58
No goal scored 16.8% 17.4% — — 5.75
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 64.6% 56.7% 59.4% 0.95× 1.77
Both teams to score 35.4% 43.3% 40.6% 1.07× 2.31
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 58.9% 47.5% 52.8% 0.90× 2.11
Both score & over 2.5 21.7% 27.9% 27.3% 1.02× 3.59
Both score & under 2.5 13.6% 12.4% 13.5% 0.92× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 5.7% 8.3% 6.7% 1.23× 12.08
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 94.9% 89.0% 94.1% 0.95× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 5.1% 11.0% 5.9% 1.85× 9.12
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 83.3% 74.0% — — 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 16.7% 26.0% — — 3.84
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 75.1% 73.3% — — 1.36
Both score 2nd half only 15.1% 14.9% — — 6.73
Both score 1st half only 8.1% 6.8% — — 14.70
Both score in both halves 1.6% 4.8% — — 20.86
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 90.3% 90.5% — — 1.11
Both teams to score by HT 9.7% 9.5% — — 10.54
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 65.1% 65.2% — — 1.53
A goal in each half 34.9% 34.8% — — 2.88
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 goals 45.2% 47.2% 39.0% 1.21× 2.12
2-3 goals 43.7% 42.2% 47.3% 0.89× 2.37
4-6 goals 10.9% 16.9% 13.5% 1.26× 5.91
7+ goals 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 4.02× 54.54
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.9% 35.9% 1.00× 2.78
Argentinos Juniors to score exactly 0 34.8% 33.8% 42.4% 0.80× 2.96
Argentinos Juniors to score exactly 2 19.4% 19.5% 15.3% 1.28× 5.12
Argentinos Juniors to score 3+ 9.1% 8.6% 6.6% 1.29× 11.69
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán to score exactly 0 46.7% 37.5% 31.8% 1.18× 2.67
Atlético Tucumán to score exactly 1 35.6% 35.5% 36.5% 0.97× 2.81
Atlético Tucumán to score exactly 2 13.5% 14.3% 21.8% 0.66× 6.99
Atlético Tucumán to score 3+ 4.2% 6.2% 10.1% 0.61× 16.15
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 54.2% 48.9% — — 2.04
Argentinos Juniors leading at HT 26.4% 25.5% — — 3.93
Atlético Tucumán leading at HT 19.4% 16.0% — — 6.23
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors -1: 1 58.7% 56.8% — — 1.76
Argentinos Juniors -1: X 24.5% 23.5% — — 4.25
Argentinos Juniors -1: 2 16.9% 17.5% — — 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (0:1) 74.7% 71.1% 58.2% 1.22× 1.41
Draw (0:1) 17.4% 17.8% 24.3% 0.73× 5.62
Atlético Tucumán (0:1) 7.9% 9.2% 17.7% 0.52× 10.83
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (0:2) 92.1% 90.7% 82.3% 1.10× 1.10
Draw (0:2) 6.1% 7.7% 12.8% 0.60× 13.07
Atlético Tucumán (0:2) 1.8% 3.7% 5.0% 0.74× 26.80
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (0:3) 98.2% 96.6% 95.0% 1.02× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 1.5% 2.4% 3.4% 0.69× 42.08
Atlético Tucumán (0:3) 0.3% 2.4% 1.7% 1.39× 42.13
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (0:4) 99.7% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Atlético Tucumán (0:4) 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 2.14× 81.96
Draw (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 1.3% 0.97× 81.94
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán (1:0) 58.7% 58.4% 72.4% 0.81× 1.71
Draw (1:0) 24.5% 21.7% 18.6% 1.17× 4.61
Argentinos Juniors (1:0) 16.9% 17.1% 9.1% 1.87× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán (2:0) 83.1% 84.6% 90.9% 0.93× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 11.8% 10.3% 6.3% 1.64× 9.72
Argentinos Juniors (2:0) 5.1% 6.4% 3.0% 2.15× 15.68
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 42.1% 45.1% — — 2.22
Halves equal 33.0% 32.4% — — 3.08
1st half highest scoring 25.0% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán to concede 65.3% 66.6% 57.6% 1.16× 1.50
Atlético Tucumán clean sheet 34.8% 33.4% 42.4% 0.79× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán clean sheet in 1st half 65.5% 70.5% — — 1.42
Atlético Tucumán to concede in 1st half 34.5% 29.5% — — 3.39
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán clean sheet in 2nd half 53.0% 52.5% — — 1.90
Atlético Tucumán to concede in 2nd half 47.0% 47.5% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán under 6.5 corners 83.7% 81.0% — — 1.24
Atlético Tucumán over 2.5 corners 74.2% 71.9% — — 1.39
Atlético Tucumán under 5.5 corners 73.5% 71.9% — — 1.39
Atlético Tucumán under 4.5 corners 59.7% 57.5% — — 1.74
Atlético Tucumán over 3.5 corners 57.0% 57.5% — — 1.74
Atlético Tucumán under 3.5 corners 43.0% 42.5% — — 2.35
Atlético Tucumán over 4.5 corners 40.3% 42.5% — — 2.35
Atlético Tucumán over 5.5 corners 26.5% 28.1% — — 3.56
Atlético Tucumán under 2.5 corners 25.8% 28.1% — — 3.56
Atlético Tucumán over 6.5 corners 16.4% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán under 3.5 goals 99.2% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Atlético Tucumán under 2.5 goals 95.8% 96.4% 89.9% 1.07× 1.04
Atlético Tucumán under 1.5 goals 82.3% 82.2% 68.2% 1.21× 1.22
Atlético Tucumán over 0.5 goals 53.3% 53.2% 68.2% 0.78× 1.88
Atlético Tucumán under 0.5 goals 46.7% 46.8% 31.8% 1.47× 2.14
Atlético Tucumán over 1.5 goals 17.7% 17.8% 31.8% 0.56× 5.62
Atlético Tucumán over 2.5 goals 4.2% 3.6% 10.1% 0.36× 27.50
Atlético Tucumán over 3.5 goals 0.8% 3.6% 2.9% 1.27× 27.65
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán under 1.5 in 1st half 95.7% 96.7% — — 1.03
Atlético Tucumán under 0.5 in 1st half 72.1% 79.2% — — 1.26
Atlético Tucumán over 0.5 in 1st half 27.9% 20.8% — — 4.82
Atlético Tucumán over 1.5 in 1st half 4.3% 3.3% — — 30.43
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán scores equally in both 53.6% 59.2% — — 1.69
Atlético Tucumán scores more in 2nd half 27.1% 27.9% — — 3.59
Atlético Tucumán scores more in 1st half 19.3% 15.6% — — 6.42
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (home no bet) 55.4% 56.3% 47.4% 1.19× 1.78
Draw (home no bet) 44.6% 43.7% 52.6% 0.83× 2.29
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán even goals 60.9% 56.0% 55.6% 1.01× 1.79
Atlético Tucumán odd goals 39.1% 44.0% 44.4% 0.99× 2.27
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 47.3% 47.6% — — 2.10
HT 0-1 19.9% 18.6% — — 5.37
HT 1-0 15.4% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-1 6.6% 6.9% — — 14.56
HT 0-2 4.2% 2.4% — — 42.15
HT 2-0 2.5% 2.4% — — 42.26
HT 1-2 1.4% 2.4% — — 42.33
Any other HT score 1.4% 2.4% — — 42.33
HT 2-1 1.1% 2.4% — — 42.35
HT 2-2 0.2% 2.4% — — 42.41
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 24.9% 21.7% — — 4.61
Argentinos Juniors at HT / Argentinos Juniors at FT 21.5% 21.6% — — 4.63
Draw at HT / Argentinos Juniors at FT 18.2% 16.8% — — 5.96
Atlético Tucumán at HT / Atlético Tucumán at FT 13.3% 12.7% — — 7.89
Draw at HT / Atlético Tucumán at FT 11.1% 12.7% — — 7.90
Atlético Tucumán at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.5% — — 28.87
Argentinos Juniors at HT / Draw at FT 3.9% 3.5% — — 28.89
Atlético Tucumán at HT / Argentinos Juniors at FT 1.6% 3.5% — — 28.98
Argentinos Juniors at HT / Atlético Tucumán at FT 0.9% 3.4% — — 29.00
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors to score last 48.4% 46.4% — — 2.16
Atlético Tucumán to score last 34.8% 32.6% — — 3.07
No goal scored 16.8% 13.4% — — 7.46
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 83.2% 87.8% — — 1.14
Argentinos Juniors to lead by 1 at any time 52.6% 50.6% — — 1.98
Atlético Tucumán to lead by 1 at any time 37.8% 34.8% — — 2.87
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 30.8% 29.7% — — 3.37
Argentinos Juniors to lead by 2 at any time 20.3% 19.5% — — 5.13
Atlético Tucumán to lead by 2 at any time 10.5% 10.6% — — 9.47
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 8.2% 6.7% — — 15.01
Argentinos Juniors to lead by 3 at any time 6.0% 6.6% — — 15.11
Atlético Tucumán to lead by 3 at any time 2.2% 1.6% — — 63.09
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán most corners 44.6% 43.6% — — 2.30
Argentinos Juniors most corners 43.1% 43.5% — — 2.30
Corners level 12.4% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 82.1% 83.4% 84.3% 0.99× 1.20
1-4 goals 79.4% 78.7% 79.9% 0.98× 1.27
1-3 goals 72.0% 72.3% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
1-2 goals 55.8% 59.1% 51.4% 1.15× 1.69
2-6 goals 54.6% 53.2% 60.7% 0.88× 1.88
2-5 goals 53.8% 53.2% 60.1% 0.88× 1.88
2-4 goals 51.1% 53.1% 55.8% 0.95× 1.88
2-3 goals 43.7% 43.6% 47.3% 0.92× 2.29
3-6 goals 27.1% 30.2% 33.5% 0.90× 3.31
3-5 goals 26.3% 30.2% 33.0% 0.92× 3.31
3-4 goals 23.6% 24.5% 28.6% 0.85× 4.09
4-6 goals 10.9% 14.8% 13.5% 1.10× 6.76
4-5 goals 10.1% 14.8% 12.9% 1.15× 6.76
5-6 goals 3.5% 2.6% 5.0% 0.51× 39.11
7+ goals 0.3% 2.5% 0.5% 5.58× 39.26
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors never behind 45.4% 56.6% — — 1.77
Atlético Tucumán never behind 30.6% 36.2% — — 2.76
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.5% 50.9% 48.9% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.5% 49.1% 51.1% 0.96× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 61.4% 59.0% — — 1.70
Odd goals in 1st half 38.6% 41.0% — — 2.44
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 56.3% 59.4% — — 1.68
Odd goals in 2nd half 43.7% 40.6% — — 2.47
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.9% 95.4% 99.0% 0.96× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 96.2% 95.4% 94.6% 1.01× 1.05
Under 3.5 goals 88.8% 87.6% 86.2% 1.02× 1.14
Over 0.5 goals 83.2% 82.3% 85.2% 0.97× 1.22
Under 2.5 goals 72.6% 72.5% 66.1% 1.10× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 54.8% 52.5% 61.0% 0.86× 1.90
Under 1.5 goals 45.2% 47.5% 39.0% 1.22× 2.11
Over 2.5 goals 27.4% 27.5% 33.9% 0.81× 3.63
Under 0.5 goals 16.8% 17.7% 14.8% 1.19× 5.65
Over 3.5 goals 11.2% 12.4% 13.8% 0.90× 8.07
Over 4.5 goals 3.8% 4.6% 5.4% 0.86× 21.81
Over 5.5 goals 1.1% 4.6% 1.0% 4.46× 21.86
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.7% 97.2% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.9% 97.2% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 95.9% 97.2% 94.1% 1.03× 1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 86.7% 86.7% 82.7% 1.05× 1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 62.2% 61.9% 53.5% 1.16× 1.62
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 37.8% 38.1% 46.5% 0.82× 2.63
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 13.3% 13.3% 17.3% 0.77× 7.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 4.1% 2.8% 5.9% 0.48× 35.58
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 1.1% 2.8% 1.1% 2.61× 35.66
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.3% 2.8% 0.5% 6.11× 35.69
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 95.9% 96.7% — — 1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half 82.6% 85.7% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half 52.7% 53.2% — — 1.88
Under 0.5 in 1st half 47.3% 46.8% — — 2.14
Over 1.5 in 1st half 17.4% 14.3% — — 6.99
Over 2.5 in 1st half 4.1% 3.3% — — 30.24
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 90.7% 90.0% — — 1.11
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 70.9% 77.6% — — 1.29
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 65.4% 68.4% — — 1.46
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 34.6% 31.6% — — 3.16
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 29.1% 22.4% — — 4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 9.3% 10.0% — — 9.98
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán not to score in both halves 90.2% 90.0% — — 1.11
Argentinos Juniors not to score in both halves 83.8% 84.4% — — 1.19
Argentinos Juniors to score in both halves 16.2% 15.6% — — 6.40
Atlético Tucumán to score in both halves 9.8% 10.0% — — 10.04
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 35.4% 39.9% 40.6% 0.98× 2.51
Only Argentinos Juniors scores 29.9% 26.1% 17.1% 1.53× 3.83
Only Atlético Tucumán scores 17.9% 16.0% 27.7% 0.58× 6.23
Neither team scores 16.8% 16.0% 14.8% 1.08× 6.24
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 28.3% 24.9% 24.3% 1.02× 4.02
Exactly 2 goals 27.4% 24.9% 27.3% 0.91× 4.02
Exactly 0 goals 16.8% 17.5% 14.8% 1.18× 5.73
Exactly 3 goals 16.3% 17.5% 20.2% 0.86× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 7.4% 7.6% 8.6% 0.89× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 2.7% 4.5% 4.4% 1.01× 22.36
6 or more goals 1.1% 4.5% 1.0% 4.35× 22.38
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 47.3% 47.6% — — 2.10
1 goal in 1st half 35.2% 37.2% — — 2.69
2 goals in 1st half 13.4% 10.9% — — 9.19
3+ goals in 1st half 4.1% 3.3% — — 30.24
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 36.3% 39.7% — — 2.52
No goals in 2nd half 34.6% 33.9% — — 2.95
2+ goals in 2nd half 29.1% 29.2% — — 3.43
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán not to win both halves 95.9% 97.2% — — 1.03
Argentinos Juniors not to win both halves 90.9% 94.1% — — 1.06
Argentinos Juniors to win both halves 9.1% 5.9% — — 17.00
Atlético Tucumán to win both halves 4.1% 2.8% — — 35.54
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán to win neither half 63.8% 65.0% — — 1.54
Argentinos Juniors to win either half 51.4% 54.3% — — 1.84
Argentinos Juniors to win neither half 48.6% 45.7% — — 2.19
Atlético Tucumán to win either half 36.2% 35.0% — — 2.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán not to win to nil 82.1% 83.1% 72.3% 1.15× 1.20
Argentinos Juniors not to win to nil 70.1% 75.3% 82.9% 0.91× 1.33
Argentinos Juniors to win to nil 29.9% 24.7% 17.1% 1.45× 4.04
Atlético Tucumán to win to nil 17.9% 16.9% 27.7% 0.61× 5.91
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 33.3% 27.7% 30.7% 0.90× 3.61
Argentinos Juniors by 1 24.5% 24.1% 18.6% 1.30× 4.15
Atlético Tucumán by 1 17.4% 17.0% 24.3% 0.70× 5.87
Argentinos Juniors by 2 11.8% 11.8% 6.3% 1.87× 8.51
Atlético Tucumán by 2 6.1% 7.2% 12.8% 0.56× 13.92
Argentinos Juniors by 3+ 5.1% 7.2% 3.0% 2.42× 13.92
Atlético Tucumán by 3+ 1.8% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.92
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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