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Audax Italiano v Coquimbo Unido — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627

CHI-Primera Division results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Audax Italiano win
38.4%
model 38.0%
Draw
23.2%
model 23.8%
Coquimbo Unido win
38.4%
model 38.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-1 13.6%
  2. 1-0 13.6%
  3. 1-1 11.0%
  4. 1-2 7.7%
  5. 2-1 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.541.0% Under 2.559.0%
BTTS yes44.9% BTTS no55.1%
Audax Italiano 1+68.6% Audax Italiano 2+32.3%
Coquimbo Unido 1+68.7% Coquimbo Unido 2+32.4%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.16. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
83/100
Data quality
75/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
1-2 goals
Multi goal · usually 42%
52.2% fair odds 1.91
strong signal · 1994 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Under 2.5 in 2nd half
Over/Under 2HT
82.0% fair odds 1.22
moderate signal · 1583 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger rating, 1619 Elo against 1473.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Coquimbo Unido have an estimated 38.4% win probability, against 38.4% for Audax Italiano and 23.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.16 for Audax Italiano and 1.16 for Coquimbo Unido.

Why Audax Italiano

Nothing in the data singles out Audax Italiano.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.2%. A combined 2.32 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.16 to 1.16. Draws run at 21% in this competition.

Why Coquimbo Unido can win

Coquimbo Unido carry the stronger rating, 1619 Elo against 1473.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Audax Italiano, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Coquimbo Unido, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Audax Italiano: 47% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 10.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Coquimbo Unido: 47% possession, 10.8 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Coquimbo Unido are the model's most likely outcome at 38.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 13.6%. Confidence 83/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.16–1.16 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.07–1.26 0-1 14% 41% 45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido to win 42.7% 42.9% 30.0% 1.43× 2.33
Audax Italiano to win 33.7% 30.4% 49.0% 0.62× 3.29
Draw 23.6% 24.5% 21.2% 1.15× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido & not both score 26.7% 25.2% 16.8% 1.50× 3.97
Audax Italiano & not both score 20.9% 21.8% 26.8% 0.81× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 16.1% 18.0% 16.6% 1.08× 5.57
Coquimbo Unido & both teams score 16.0% 18.0% 13.4% 1.34× 5.57
Audax Italiano & both teams score 12.8% 13.3% 22.4% 0.59× 7.54
Draw & not both score 7.5% 8.3% 4.9% 1.71× 12.00
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido & under 3.5 33.6% 30.8% 23.4% 1.31× 3.25
Coquimbo Unido & over 1.5 28.3% 26.1% 20.0% 1.30× 3.84
Audax Italiano & under 3.5 27.3% 26.1% 34.1% 0.76× 3.84
Coquimbo Unido & under 2.5 22.1% 21.6% 13.7% 1.58× 4.63
Audax Italiano & over 1.5 21.1% 21.6% 36.1% 0.60× 4.63
Coquimbo Unido & over 2.5 20.6% 21.6% 16.6% 1.30× 4.63
Audax Italiano & under 2.5 18.3% 18.0% 20.0% 0.90× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 18.4% 18.0% 13.9% 1.30× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.4% 18.0% 13.9% 1.30× 5.56
Audax Italiano & over 2.5 15.5% 18.0% 29.3% 0.62× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.1% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.56
Coquimbo Unido & under 1.5 14.4% 12.8% 10.2% 1.25× 7.79
Audax Italiano & under 1.5 12.7% 12.8% 13.2% 0.97× 7.79
Coquimbo Unido & over 3.5 9.1% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 7.5% 7.9% 4.9% 1.62× 12.63
Audax Italiano & over 3.5 6.4% 7.9% 15.1% 0.52× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 5.1% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 5.1% 7.9% 7.6% 1.05× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido (1UP) 55.9% 57.8% — — 1.73
Audax Italiano (1UP) 47.9% 43.9% — — 2.28
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido (2UP) 42.7% 47.1% — — 2.12
Audax Italiano (2UP) 33.7% 30.4% — — 3.29
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 37.2% 36.4% — — 2.75
Coquimbo Unido to win 2nd half 35.7% 36.4% — — 2.75
Audax Italiano to win 2nd half 27.1% 26.1% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido under 1.5 in 2nd half 82.5% 84.1% — — 1.19
Coquimbo Unido over 0.5 in 2nd half 52.9% 52.4% — — 1.91
Coquimbo Unido under 0.5 in 2nd half 47.1% 47.6% — — 2.10
Coquimbo Unido over 1.5 in 2nd half 17.5% 15.9% — — 6.30
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano under 1.5 in 2nd half 87.4% 88.8% — — 1.13
Audax Italiano under 0.5 in 2nd half 54.2% 55.1% — — 1.82
Audax Italiano over 0.5 in 2nd half 45.8% 44.9% — — 2.23
Audax Italiano over 1.5 in 2nd half 12.6% 11.2% — — 8.92
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido (+2.5) 96.3% 96.3% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Coquimbo Unido (+1.5) 87.8% 88.5% 76.8% 1.15× 1.13
Coquimbo Unido (+0.5) 66.3% 68.7% 51.0% 1.35× 1.46
Audax Italiano (+0.5) 57.3% 57.0% 70.0% 0.81× 1.75
Coquimbo Unido (-0.5) 42.7% 43.0% 30.0% 1.43× 2.33
Audax Italiano (-0.5) 33.7% 31.3% 49.0% 0.64× 3.19
Audax Italiano (-1.5) 12.2% 11.5% 23.2% 0.50× 8.67
Audax Italiano (-2.5) 3.7% 3.7% 10.5% 0.35× 27.10
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido to concede 65.8% 72.3% 78.5% 0.92× 1.38
Coquimbo Unido clean sheet 34.2% 27.7% 21.5% 1.29× 3.60
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido clean sheet in 1st half 63.0% 64.6% — — 1.55
Coquimbo Unido to concede in 1st half 37.0% 35.4% — — 2.82
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido clean sheet in 2nd half 54.2% 54.6% — — 1.83
Coquimbo Unido to concede in 2nd half 45.8% 45.4% — — 2.20
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido over 2.5 corners 84.0% 81.4% — — 1.23
Coquimbo Unido over 3.5 corners 71.0% 71.6% — — 1.40
Coquimbo Unido under 6.5 corners 69.9% 67.6% — — 1.48
Coquimbo Unido under 5.5 corners 57.7% 57.2% — — 1.75
Coquimbo Unido over 4.5 corners 56.4% 57.2% — — 1.75
Coquimbo Unido under 4.5 corners 43.6% 42.8% — — 2.34
Coquimbo Unido over 5.5 corners 42.3% 42.8% — — 2.34
Coquimbo Unido over 6.5 corners 30.1% 32.4% — — 3.09
Coquimbo Unido under 3.5 corners 29.0% 28.4% — — 3.52
Coquimbo Unido under 2.5 corners 16.0% 18.6% — — 5.38
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido under 3.5 goals 96.1% 97.5% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
Coquimbo Unido under 2.5 goals 86.7% 87.8% 88.3% 0.99× 1.14
Coquimbo Unido over 0.5 goals 71.5% 71.8% 68.5% 1.05× 1.39
Coquimbo Unido under 1.5 goals 64.3% 63.2% 68.5% 0.92× 1.58
Coquimbo Unido over 1.5 goals 35.8% 36.8% 31.5% 1.17× 2.72
Coquimbo Unido under 0.5 goals 28.5% 28.2% 31.5% 0.90× 3.55
Coquimbo Unido over 2.5 goals 13.3% 12.2% 11.7% 1.04× 8.20
Coquimbo Unido over 3.5 goals 3.9% 2.5% 2.9% 0.86× 39.77
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido under 1.5 in 1st half 90.9% 93.9% — — 1.07
Coquimbo Unido under 0.5 in 1st half 60.5% 63.1% — — 1.59
Coquimbo Unido over 0.5 in 1st half 39.5% 36.9% — — 2.71
Coquimbo Unido over 1.5 in 1st half 9.1% 6.1% — — 16.33
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido scores equally in both 40.3% 43.6% — — 2.29
Coquimbo Unido scores more in 2nd half 37.7% 37.4% — — 2.68
Coquimbo Unido scores more in 1st half 22.0% 21.8% — — 4.59
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano (away no bet) 58.8% 57.4% 69.8% 0.82× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 41.2% 42.6% 30.2% 1.41× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido even goals 54.1% 52.6% 53.7% 0.98× 1.90
Coquimbo Unido odd goals 45.9% 47.4% 46.3% 1.02× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 90.1% 91.1% — — 1.10
Both halves over 1.5 goals 9.9% 8.9% — — 11.27
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 53.6% 51.1% — — 1.96
Both halves under 1.5 goals 46.4% 48.9% — — 2.05
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 47.5% 46.2% — — 2.17
Coquimbo Unido to score 2+ in a row 29.1% 25.0% — — 4.00
Audax Italiano to score 2+ in a row 22.5% 19.5% — — 5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row 14.5% 12.2% — — 8.19
Coquimbo Unido to score 3+ in a row 8.9% 5.5% — — 18.07
Audax Italiano to score 3+ in a row 5.8% 5.5% — — 18.31
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido corners (+3.5) 89.6% 84.5% — — 1.18
Coquimbo Unido corners (+2.5) 83.8% 79.8% — — 1.25
Coquimbo Unido corners (+1.5) 76.1% 74.8% — — 1.34
Audax Italiano corners (+3.5) 75.0% 70.8% — — 1.41
Audax Italiano corners (+2.5) 65.8% 65.9% — — 1.52
Audax Italiano corners (+1.5) 55.2% 57.1% — — 1.75
Coquimbo Unido corners (-1.5) 44.8% 42.9% — — 2.33
Coquimbo Unido corners (-2.5) 34.2% 34.1% — — 2.93
Coquimbo Unido corners (-3.5) 25.0% 29.2% — — 3.42
Audax Italiano corners (-1.5) 23.9% 25.2% — — 3.97
Audax Italiano corners (-2.5) 16.2% 20.2% — — 4.95
Audax Italiano corners (-3.5) 10.4% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 42.9% 38.3% — — 2.61
9-11 corners 29.5% 31.2% — — 3.20
12+ corners 27.6% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 79.8% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 11.5 corners 72.4% 72.5% — — 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 67.8% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 63.6% 63.3% — — 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 57.1% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 53.6% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 46.4% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 42.9% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 36.4% 36.7% — — 2.72
Under 7.5 corners 32.2% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 11.5 corners 27.6% 27.5% — — 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 20.2% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 14.4% 11.5% 10.2% 1.12× 8.71
1-0 12.7% 11.5% 13.2% 0.87× 8.71
1-1 10.9% 11.5% 9.3% 1.24× 8.72
0-0 7.5% 7.4% 4.9% 1.52× 13.51
0-2 7.7% 7.4% 3.7% 2.02× 13.51
1-2 8.2% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.51
2-1 7.0% 7.4% 10.7% 0.69× 13.51
2-0 5.6% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.51
0-3 3.2% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.30
0-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
1-3 3.5% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.30
1-4 1.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.34× 58.31
2-2 4.4% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.29
2-3 1.9% 1.7% 2.2% 0.78× 58.31
2-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
3-0 2.0% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.31
3-1 2.5% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.31
3-2 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.31
3-3 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.32
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-0 0.5% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.32
4-1 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.32
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.32
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.03× 58.32
Any other score 1.4% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.31
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido (2nd half DNB) 56.9% 59.4% — — 1.68
Audax Italiano (2nd half DNB) 43.1% 40.6% — — 2.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido leading at HT (DNB) 52.6% 56.1% — — 1.78
Audax Italiano leading at HT (DNB) 47.4% 43.9% — — 2.28
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano or Coquimbo Unido (12) 76.4% 75.5% 78.8% 0.96× 1.32
Coquimbo Unido or draw (X2) 66.3% 69.6% 51.0% 1.37× 1.44
Audax Italiano or draw (1X) 57.3% 57.1% 70.0% 0.82× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido or draw at HT 74.8% 74.6% — — 1.34
Audax Italiano or draw at HT 72.0% 74.5% — — 1.34
Audax Italiano or Coquimbo Unido at HT 53.2% 48.6% — — 2.06
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido or draw (1UP) 66.3% 76.3% — — 1.31
Audax Italiano or draw (1UP) 57.3% 63.0% — — 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido or draw in 2nd half 72.9% 73.9% — — 1.35
Audax Italiano or draw in 2nd half 64.3% 63.6% — — 1.57
Audax Italiano or Coquimbo Unido in 2nd half 62.8% 63.6% — — 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 68.9% 68.4% — — 1.46
Neither half drawn 31.1% 31.6% — — 3.16
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido (DNB) 55.9% 58.1% 38.0% 1.53× 1.72
Audax Italiano (DNB) 44.1% 41.9% 62.0% 0.68× 2.38
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido to score first 49.9% 46.0% — — 2.18
Audax Italiano to score first 42.6% 41.7% — — 2.40
No goal scored 7.5% 7.6% — — 13.20
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 55.1% 55.0% 48.0% 1.14× 1.82
Both teams to score 44.9% 45.0% 52.0% 0.87× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 47.9% 44.3% 38.0% 1.16× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 33.9% 34.6% 42.9% 0.81× 2.89
Both score & under 2.5 10.9% 12.4% 9.3% 1.33× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 7.2% 8.3% 10.2% 0.81× 12.07
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.6% 85.6% 84.6% 1.01× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.4% 14.4% 15.4% 0.93× 6.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 76.5% 75.0% — — 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 23.5% 25.0% — — 4.01
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 65.9% 63.2% — — 1.58
Both score 2nd half only 19.9% 15.1% — — 6.62
Both score 1st half only 10.7% 10.7% — — 9.34
Both score in both halves 3.5% 4.9% — — 20.44
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.8% 84.7% — — 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 14.2% 15.3% — — 6.54
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 55.0% 56.9% — — 1.76
A goal in each half 45.0% 43.1% — — 2.32
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.7% 42.2% 43.4% 0.97× 2.37
0-1 goals 34.6% 30.8% 27.8% 1.11× 3.25
4-6 goals 19.7% 20.3% 26.8% 0.75× 4.94
7+ goals 1.0% 1.8% 2.4% 0.75× 54.46
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido to score exactly 1 35.8% 35.9% 37.3% 0.96× 2.79
Coquimbo Unido to score exactly 0 28.5% 27.5% 31.5% 0.87× 3.64
Coquimbo Unido to score exactly 2 22.5% 22.3% 20.0% 1.11× 4.49
Coquimbo Unido to score 3+ 13.3% 12.9% 11.7% 1.10× 7.76
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.5% 31.7% 1.12× 2.81
Audax Italiano to score exactly 0 34.2% 32.6% 21.5% 1.52× 3.07
Audax Italiano to score exactly 2 19.7% 18.8% 26.3% 0.71× 5.32
Audax Italiano to score 3+ 9.4% 10.4% 21.0% 0.49× 9.65
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 46.8% 51.4% — — 1.95
Coquimbo Unido leading at HT 28.0% 25.5% — — 3.92
Audax Italiano leading at HT 25.2% 25.4% — — 3.93
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido -1: 1 57.3% 56.8% — — 1.76
Coquimbo Unido -1: X 24.8% 23.5% — — 4.25
Coquimbo Unido -1: 2 17.9% 17.5% — — 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido (0:1) 66.3% 65.2% 51.0% 1.28× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 21.5% 24.2% 26.1% 0.93× 4.13
Audax Italiano (0:1) 12.2% 13.7% 23.2% 0.59× 7.30
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido (0:2) 87.8% 87.1% 76.8% 1.13× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 8.6% 7.7% 12.9% 0.59× 13.05
Audax Italiano (0:2) 3.7% 3.7% 10.5% 0.36× 26.69
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido (0:3) 96.3% 96.6% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 2.8% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.02
Audax Italiano (0:3) 0.9% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.10
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido (0:4) 99.1% 98.1% 94.6% 1.04× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 4.1% 0.29× 81.89
Audax Italiano (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 1.5% 0.83× 81.95
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano (1:0) 57.3% 58.3% 70.0% 0.83× 1.72
Draw (1:0) 24.8% 21.7% 20.0% 1.09× 4.61
Coquimbo Unido (1:0) 17.9% 17.1% 10.2% 1.67× 5.85
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano (2:0) 82.1% 84.6% 89.8% 0.94× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 11.8% 10.3% 6.3% 1.62× 9.72
Coquimbo Unido (2:0) 6.2% 6.4% 4.1% 1.54× 15.67
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.9% 48.6% — — 2.06
1st half highest scoring 27.9% 26.2% — — 3.81
Halves equal 24.2% 24.5% — — 4.08
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano to concede 71.5% 73.0% 68.5% 1.06× 1.37
Audax Italiano clean sheet 28.5% 27.0% 31.5% 0.86× 3.70
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano clean sheet in 1st half 60.5% 63.0% — — 1.59
Audax Italiano to concede in 1st half 39.5% 37.0% — — 2.70
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano to concede in 2nd half 52.9% 52.5% — — 1.90
Audax Italiano clean sheet in 2nd half 47.1% 47.5% — — 2.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano under 6.5 corners 83.4% 81.0% — — 1.24
Audax Italiano under 5.5 corners 73.4% 71.9% — — 1.39
Audax Italiano over 2.5 corners 73.4% 71.9% — — 1.39
Audax Italiano under 4.5 corners 59.9% 57.5% — — 1.74
Audax Italiano over 3.5 corners 56.4% 57.5% — — 1.74
Audax Italiano under 3.5 corners 43.6% 42.5% — — 2.35
Audax Italiano over 4.5 corners 40.1% 42.5% — — 2.35
Audax Italiano over 5.5 corners 26.6% 28.1% — — 3.56
Audax Italiano under 2.5 corners 26.6% 28.1% — — 3.56
Audax Italiano over 6.5 corners 16.6% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano under 3.5 goals 97.6% 96.4% 91.0% 1.06× 1.04
Audax Italiano under 2.5 goals 90.6% 92.2% 79.0% 1.17× 1.09
Audax Italiano under 1.5 goals 70.9% 74.2% 52.9% 1.40× 1.35
Audax Italiano over 0.5 goals 65.8% 67.9% 78.5% 0.86× 1.47
Audax Italiano under 0.5 goals 34.2% 32.1% 21.5% 1.49× 3.12
Audax Italiano over 1.5 goals 29.1% 25.8% 47.1% 0.55× 3.88
Audax Italiano over 2.5 goals 9.4% 7.8% 21.0% 0.37× 12.82
Audax Italiano over 3.5 goals 2.4% 3.6% 9.0% 0.40× 27.58
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano under 1.5 in 1st half 92.1% 94.7% — — 1.06
Audax Italiano under 0.5 in 1st half 63.0% 64.4% — — 1.55
Audax Italiano over 0.5 in 1st half 37.0% 35.6% — — 2.81
Audax Italiano over 1.5 in 1st half 7.9% 5.3% — — 18.97
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano scores equally in both 44.6% 41.8% — — 2.39
Audax Italiano scores more in 2nd half 32.7% 33.2% — — 3.01
Audax Italiano scores more in 1st half 22.8% 21.0% — — 4.76
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido (home no bet) 64.4% 60.1% 58.6% 1.03× 1.67
Draw (home no bet) 35.6% 39.9% 41.4% 0.96× 2.50
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano even goals 55.8% 55.3% 54.4% 1.02× 1.81
Audax Italiano odd goals 44.2% 44.7% 45.6% 0.98× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 37.8% 38.7% — — 2.59
HT 0-1 19.5% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 1-0 18.0% 18.6% — — 5.38
HT 1-1 8.5% 6.9% — — 14.53
HT 0-2 4.8% 2.4% — — 42.11
HT 2-0 4.1% 2.4% — — 42.16
Any other HT score 2.6% 2.4% — — 42.25
HT 1-2 2.2% 2.4% — — 42.28
HT 2-1 2.0% 2.4% — — 42.29
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.4% — — 42.39
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido at HT / Coquimbo Unido at FT 22.5% 21.6% — — 4.63
Audax Italiano at HT / Audax Italiano at FT 18.4% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Coquimbo Unido at FT 17.9% 16.8% — — 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.1% 16.7% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Audax Italiano at FT 13.8% 12.7% — — 7.89
Audax Italiano at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% — — 28.87
Coquimbo Unido at HT / Draw at FT 4.0% 3.5% — — 28.89
Audax Italiano at HT / Coquimbo Unido at FT 2.3% 3.5% — — 28.95
Coquimbo Unido at HT / Audax Italiano at FT 1.5% 3.5% — — 28.98
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido to score last 49.8% 46.5% — — 2.15
Audax Italiano to score last 42.7% 40.0% — — 2.50
No goal scored 7.5% 7.6% — — 13.20
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.5% 92.5% — — 1.08
Coquimbo Unido to lead by 1 at any time 55.9% 54.8% — — 1.82
Audax Italiano to lead by 1 at any time 47.9% 44.3% — — 2.26
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 39.6% 34.9% — — 2.87
Coquimbo Unido to lead by 2 at any time 22.9% 19.5% — — 5.12
Audax Italiano to lead by 2 at any time 16.7% 14.8% — — 6.75
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 12.3% 10.6% — — 9.44
Coquimbo Unido to lead by 3 at any time 7.6% 6.7% — — 15.03
Audax Italiano to lead by 3 at any time 4.7% 1.6% — — 60.75
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido most corners 55.9% 55.6% — — 1.80
Audax Italiano most corners 33.4% 34.4% — — 2.91
Corners level 10.7% 10.4% — — 9.59
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 89.3% 87.4% 87.3% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 83.8% 83.4% 81.2% 1.03× 1.20
1-3 goals 71.8% 72.3% 66.3% 1.09× 1.38
2-6 goals 64.4% 63.3% 70.0% 0.90× 1.58
2-5 goals 62.2% 63.3% 64.4% 0.98× 1.58
2-4 goals 56.7% 59.1% 58.3% 1.01× 1.69
1-2 goals 51.3% 53.1% 42.4% 1.25× 1.88
2-3 goals 44.7% 43.6% 43.4% 1.00× 2.29
3-6 goals 40.2% 43.6% 50.7% 0.86× 2.29
3-5 goals 38.0% 39.2% 45.1% 0.87× 2.55
3-4 goals 32.4% 35.2% 39.0% 0.90× 2.84
4-6 goals 19.7% 18.8% 26.8% 0.70× 5.31
4-5 goals 17.5% 18.8% 21.2% 0.89× 5.31
5-6 goals 7.7% 8.9% 12.0% 0.74× 11.26
7+ goals 1.0% 2.5% 2.4% 1.05× 39.23
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido never behind 44.5% 48.9% — — 2.05
Audax Italiano never behind 36.6% 44.2% — — 2.26
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 46.1% 50.9% 44.9% 1.13× 1.97
Odd number of goals 53.9% 49.1% 55.1% 0.89× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.5% 57.8% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 43.5% 42.2% — — 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.7% 52.0% — — 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.3% 48.0% — — 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.8% 95.4% 92.0% 1.04× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 92.5% 92.3% 95.1% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 91.3% 92.3% 85.9% 1.07× 1.08
Under 3.5 goals 79.3% 77.3% 71.0% 1.09× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 65.4% 66.3% 72.2% 0.92× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 58.8% 58.6% 47.1% 1.25× 1.71
Over 2.5 goals 41.2% 41.4% 52.9% 0.78× 2.42
Under 1.5 goals 34.6% 33.7% 27.8% 1.21× 2.97
Over 3.5 goals 20.7% 22.7% 29.0% 0.78× 4.41
Over 4.5 goals 8.7% 7.7% 14.1% 0.55× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 7.5% 7.7% 4.9% 1.58× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 3.2% 4.6% 8.0% 0.57× 21.82
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.0% 97.2% 97.4% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.7% 97.2% 91.4% 1.06× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 90.1% 92.4% 83.4% 1.11× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 74.0% 72.4% 61.9% 1.17× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 54.3% 51.9% 65.6% 0.79× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 45.7% 48.1% 34.4% 1.40× 2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 26.0% 27.6% 38.1% 0.72× 3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 9.9% 7.6% 16.6% 0.46× 13.17
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.3% 2.8% 8.6% 0.33× 35.60
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.0% 2.8% 2.6% 1.09× 35.66
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.6% 92.8% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 75.3% 78.0% — — 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 62.2% 63.2% — — 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 37.8% 36.8% — — 2.72
Over 1.5 in 1st half 24.7% 22.0% — — 4.54
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.4% 7.2% — — 13.92
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 84.2% 83.0% — — 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 75.2% 79.5% — — 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 61.1% 61.4% — — 1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 38.9% 38.6% — — 2.59
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 24.8% 20.5% — — 4.88
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 15.8% 17.0% — — 5.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano not to score in both halves 83.1% 84.3% — — 1.19
Coquimbo Unido not to score in both halves 79.1% 78.5% — — 1.27
Coquimbo Unido to score in both halves 20.9% 21.5% — — 4.65
Audax Italiano to score in both halves 16.9% 15.7% — — 6.38
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 44.9% 46.6% 52.0% 0.90× 2.15
Only Coquimbo Unido scores 26.7% 26.1% 16.8% 1.55× 3.84
Only Audax Italiano scores 20.9% 22.2% 26.8% 0.83× 4.50
Neither team scores 7.5% 7.1% 4.9% 1.46× 14.00
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 27.1% 24.9% 23.2% 1.07× 4.02
Exactly 2 goals 24.2% 22.6% 19.5% 1.16× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 20.5% 22.6% 24.1% 0.93× 4.43
Exactly 4 goals 11.9% 12.1% 15.1% 0.80× 8.26
Exactly 0 goals 7.5% 7.6% 4.9% 1.56× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 5.6% 7.6% 6.3% 1.20× 13.14
6 or more goals 3.2% 4.5% 8.0% 0.56× 22.35
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 37.8% 37.3% — — 2.68
1 goal in 1st half 37.5% 37.3% — — 2.68
2 goals in 1st half 17.3% 15.7% — — 6.38
3+ goals in 1st half 7.4% 7.2% — — 13.92
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 38.9% 40.0% — — 2.50
1 goal in 2nd half 36.4% 39.7% — — 2.52
No goals in 2nd half 24.8% 23.0% — — 4.35
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano not to win both halves 93.5% 94.2% — — 1.06
Coquimbo Unido not to win both halves 90.3% 94.1% — — 1.06
Coquimbo Unido to win both halves 9.7% 5.9% — — 16.96
Audax Italiano to win both halves 6.5% 5.8% — — 17.18
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano to win neither half 54.2% 54.4% — — 1.84
Coquimbo Unido to win either half 54.1% 54.4% — — 1.84
Coquimbo Unido to win neither half 45.9% 45.6% — — 2.19
Audax Italiano to win either half 45.8% 45.6% — — 2.19
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Audax Italiano not to win to nil 79.1% 78.1% 73.2% 1.07× 1.28
Coquimbo Unido not to win to nil 73.3% 75.3% 83.2% 0.91× 1.33
Coquimbo Unido to win to nil 26.7% 24.7% 16.8% 1.47× 4.05
Audax Italiano to win to nil 20.9% 21.9% 26.8% 0.81× 4.58
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Coquimbo Unido by 1 24.8% 24.1% 20.0% 1.21× 4.15
Draw 23.6% 24.1% 21.2% 1.14× 4.15
Audax Italiano by 1 21.5% 24.1% 26.1% 0.92× 4.15
Coquimbo Unido by 2 11.8% 11.8% 6.3% 1.85× 8.51
Audax Italiano by 2 8.6% 7.2% 12.9% 0.56× 13.90
Coquimbo Unido by 3+ 6.2% 7.2% 4.1% 1.73× 13.92
Audax Italiano by 3+ 3.7% 2.7% 10.5% 0.26× 36.86
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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