Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Augsburg

09:30

Bayer Leverkusen

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 126h before kick-off

Augsburg win

36.7%

model 36.5%

Draw

20.7%

model 22.2%

Bayer Leverkusen win

42.6%

model 41.3%

372143

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 9.2%
1-2 8.3%
2-1 7.8%
2-2 7.1%
0-1 5.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	68.2%	Under 2.5	31.8%
BTTS yes	68.4%	BTTS no	31.6%
Augsburg 1+	81.7%	Augsburg 2+	50.7%
Bayer Leverkusen 1+	83.7%	Bayer Leverkusen 2+	54.2%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.82. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Over 1.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 41%

63.1% fair odds 1.58

strong signal · 984 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Bayer Leverkusen (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 75%

82.9% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 390 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger rating, 1663 Elo against 1550.
Bayer Leverkusen have created 2.80 xG a match over their last five while Augsburg have allowed 2.01.
Away from home Bayer Leverkusen average 1.56 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Bayer Leverkusen have an estimated 42.6% win probability, against 36.7% for Augsburg and 20.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.70 for Augsburg and 1.82 for Bayer Leverkusen.

Why Augsburg

Augsburg have created 2.38 xG a match over their last five while Bayer Leverkusen have allowed 1.83. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. At home Augsburg average 2.95 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.7%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.70 to 1.82. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Bayer Leverkusen can win

Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger rating, 1663 Elo against 1550. Bayer Leverkusen have created 2.80 xG a match over their last five while Augsburg have allowed 2.01. Away from home Bayer Leverkusen average 1.56 xG a match.

Key players

Augsburg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Michael Gregoritsch (0.43), Anton Kade (0.41), Alexis Claude Maurice (0.28). Bayer Leverkusen's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Patrik Schick (0.70), Álex Grimaldo (0.46), Ibrahim Maza (0.36).

Availability

2 of Augsburg's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Augsburg's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Bayer Leverkusen's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Bayer Leverkusen's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Augsburg: 38% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 20.6 faced, 0.70 xG a match from set pieces. Bayer Leverkusen: 62% possession, 19.4 shots a match, 14.4 faced, 1.00 xG a match from set pieces. Augsburg's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Bayer Leverkusen are the model's most likely outcome at 42.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 9.2%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDDWDWWLWW last 10 scored 21 from 23.8 xG conceded 17 from 20.1 xG

Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DWWLWWLDLW last 10 scored 25 from 28.0 xG conceded 17 from 18.3 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	372241	1.70–1.82	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	312347	1.45–1.84	1-1 10%	64%	64%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to win	42.9%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.32
Augsburg to win	35.8%	36.4%	41.6%	0.87×	2.75
Draw	21.3%	24.4%	24.8%	0.98×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen & both teams score	28.5%	25.2%	18.4%	1.37×	3.97
Augsburg & both teams score	24.2%	21.9%	22.2%	0.99×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	19.0%	17.9%	19.1%	0.94×	5.58
Bayer Leverkusen & not both score	14.3%	13.3%	15.5%	0.86×	7.54
Augsburg & not both score	11.6%	13.3%	19.6%	0.68×	7.55
Draw & not both score	2.3%	4.9%	5.9%	0.83×	20.61

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen & over 1.5	38.3%	34.9%	27.8%	1.25×	2.87
Bayer Leverkusen & over 2.5	33.8%	30.9%	23.6%	1.31×	3.24
Augsburg & over 1.5	31.6%	30.9%	35.4%	0.87×	3.24
Augsburg & over 2.5	27.9%	26.0%	29.4%	0.88×	3.84
Bayer Leverkusen & over 3.5	22.7%	21.7%	14.1%	1.54×	4.62
Bayer Leverkusen & under 3.5	20.1%	21.7%	19.8%	1.09×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
Augsburg & over 3.5	18.3%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Augsburg & under 3.5	17.5%	18.0%	21.5%	0.84×	5.56
Draw & over 2.5	10.8%	12.9%	9.5%	1.36×	7.77
Draw & under 2.5	10.5%	12.9%	15.5%	0.83×	7.77
Draw & over 3.5	10.8%	12.9%	9.5%	1.36×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	10.5%	12.9%	15.5%	0.83×	7.77
Bayer Leverkusen & under 2.5	9.1%	7.9%	10.3%	0.77×	12.69
Augsburg & under 2.5	7.9%	7.9%	12.3%	0.64×	12.70
Bayer Leverkusen & under 1.5	4.6%	4.8%	6.0%	0.79×	20.93
Augsburg & under 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	6.3%	0.75×	20.93
Draw & under 1.5	2.3%	4.8%	5.9%	0.82×	20.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (1UP)	63.2%	63.1%	52.9%	1.19×	1.58
Augsburg (1UP)	57.4%	58.1%	59.6%	0.98×	1.72

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (2UP)	42.9%	47.7%	36.6%	1.30×	2.10
Augsburg (2UP)	35.8%	37.0%	45.0%	0.82×	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to win 2nd half	34.0%	34.5%	29.6%	1.17×	2.90
2nd half drawn	33.5%	34.5%	33.4%	1.03×	2.90
Augsburg to win 2nd half	32.4%	34.5%	37.1%	0.93×	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (+2.5)	92.2%	92.1%	88.3%	1.04×	1.09
Bayer Leverkusen (+1.5)	81.6%	82.4%	75.3%	1.09×	1.21
Bayer Leverkusen (+0.5)	64.2%	62.9%	58.4%	1.08×	1.59
Augsburg (+0.5)	57.1%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.75
Bayer Leverkusen (-0.5)	42.9%	43.0%	33.7%	1.28×	2.33
Augsburg (-0.5)	35.8%	37.1%	41.6%	0.89×	2.70
Augsburg (-1.5)	18.4%	17.6%	24.7%	0.71×	5.68
Augsburg (-2.5)	7.8%	7.9%	11.7%	0.68×	12.63

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to concede	83.3%	81.3%	78.8%	1.03×	1.23
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet	16.7%	18.7%	21.2%	0.88×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to concede in 1st half	60.7%	64.8%	51.8%	1.25×	1.54
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet in 1st half	39.3%	35.2%	48.2%	0.73×	2.84

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen over 2.5 corners	89.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Bayer Leverkusen over 3.5 corners	79.2%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Bayer Leverkusen over 4.5 corners	67.1%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Bayer Leverkusen under 6.5 corners	57.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Bayer Leverkusen over 5.5 corners	54.3%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Bayer Leverkusen under 5.5 corners	45.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Bayer Leverkusen over 6.5 corners	42.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Bayer Leverkusen under 4.5 corners	32.9%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Bayer Leverkusen under 3.5 corners	20.9%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Bayer Leverkusen under 2.5 corners	10.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen under 3.5 goals	86.2%	87.9%	92.6%	0.95×	1.14
Bayer Leverkusen over 0.5 goals	86.1%	87.9%	74.7%	1.18×	1.14
Bayer Leverkusen under 2.5 goals	68.5%	68.0%	79.0%	0.86×	1.47
Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 goals	58.6%	59.5%	42.9%	1.39×	1.68
Bayer Leverkusen under 1.5 goals	41.4%	40.5%	57.1%	0.71×	2.47
Bayer Leverkusen over 2.5 goals	31.5%	32.0%	21.0%	1.52×	3.12
Bayer Leverkusen under 0.5 goals	13.9%	12.1%	25.3%	0.48×	8.25
Bayer Leverkusen over 3.5 goals	13.8%	12.1%	7.4%	1.63×	8.25

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen under 1.5 in 1st half	70.5%	68.5%	85.7%	0.80×	1.46
Bayer Leverkusen over 0.5 in 1st half	66.2%	68.2%	45.6%	1.49×	1.47
Bayer Leverkusen under 0.5 in 1st half	33.8%	31.8%	54.4%	0.58×	3.15
Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 in 1st half	29.5%	31.5%	14.3%	2.21×	3.18

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg (away no bet)	62.6%	62.1%	62.6%	0.99×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	37.4%	37.9%	37.4%	1.01×	2.64

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen even goals	51.0%	52.8%	53.2%	0.99×	1.89
Bayer Leverkusen odd goals	49.0%	47.2%	46.8%	1.01×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	68.8%	72.0%	75.8%	0.95×	1.39
Both halves over 1.5 goals	31.2%	28.0%	24.2%	1.15×	3.58

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	80.8%	77.3%	72.3%	1.07×	1.29
Both halves under 1.5 goals	19.2%	22.7%	27.7%	0.82×	4.41

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	71.9%	71.9%	66.9%	1.08×	1.39
Bayer Leverkusen to score 2+ in a row	45.9%	45.8%	34.7%	1.32×	2.19
Augsburg to score 2+ in a row	40.2%	38.2%	42.3%	0.90×	2.62
Either team to score 3+ in a row	31.5%	28.9%	29.5%	0.98×	3.45
Bayer Leverkusen to score 3+ in a row	18.2%	16.4%	12.8%	1.27×	6.11
Augsburg to score 3+ in a row	14.3%	12.2%	17.6%	0.70×	8.18

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen corners (+3.5)	85.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Bayer Leverkusen corners (+2.5)	79.3%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Augsburg corners (+3.5)	72.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Bayer Leverkusen corners (+1.5)	71.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Augsburg corners (+2.5)	64.7%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Augsburg corners (+1.5)	55.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Bayer Leverkusen corners (-1.5)	44.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Bayer Leverkusen corners (-2.5)	35.3%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Augsburg corners (-1.5)	28.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Bayer Leverkusen corners (-3.5)	27.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Augsburg corners (-2.5)	20.7%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Augsburg corners (-3.5)	14.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	46.8%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	27.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
0-8 corners	26.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	81.9%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Over 8.5 corners	74.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 9.5 corners	65.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	61.9%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 10.5 corners	55.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 11.5 corners	53.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 11.5 corners	46.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 10.5 corners	44.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 12.5 corners	38.1%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 9.5 corners	34.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 8.5 corners	26.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Under 7.5 corners	18.1%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	8.4%	7.4%	5.4%	1.38×	13.48
1-1	8.2%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.48
1-2	8.1%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.48
2-1	7.3%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.48
2-2	7.2%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.48
1-3	5.3%	7.4%	4.6%	1.62×	13.48
2-3	4.8%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.46
0-0	2.3%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	58.48
0-1	4.6%	1.7%	6.0%	0.28×	58.46
0-2	4.5%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.46
0-3	3.0%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.47
0-4	1.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.08×	58.48
1-0	4.2%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.47
1-4	2.6%	1.7%	1.7%	0.98×	58.47
2-0	3.7%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.47
2-4	2.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.48
3-0	2.2%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.48
3-1	4.4%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.46
3-2	4.3%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.46
3-3	2.8%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.47
3-4	1.4%	1.7%	1.4%	1.20×	58.48
4-0	1.0%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.48
4-1	2.0%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.48
4-2	1.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.48
4-3	1.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.80×	58.48
4-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.60×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen leading at HT (DNB)	55.6%	57.6%	44.5%	1.29×	1.74
Augsburg leading at HT (DNB)	44.4%	42.4%	55.5%	0.76×	2.36

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg or Bayer Leverkusen (12)	78.7%	75.6%	75.2%	1.01×	1.32
Bayer Leverkusen or draw (X2)	64.2%	63.6%	58.4%	1.09×	1.57
Augsburg or draw (1X)	57.1%	57.0%	66.3%	0.86×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg or Bayer Leverkusen at HT	69.4%	66.5%	65.8%	1.01×	1.50
Bayer Leverkusen or draw at HT	69.2%	66.5%	63.4%	1.05×	1.50
Augsburg or draw at HT	61.4%	62.1%	70.7%	0.88×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen or draw (1UP)	64.2%	71.8%	65.1%	1.10×	1.39
Augsburg or draw (1UP)	57.4%	62.7%	73.5%	0.85×	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen or draw in 2nd half	67.6%	65.5%	62.9%	1.04×	1.53
Augsburg or Bayer Leverkusen in 2nd half	66.5%	65.5%	66.6%	0.98×	1.53
Augsburg or draw in 2nd half	66.0%	65.5%	70.4%	0.93×	1.53

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.8%	50.0%	53.7%	0.93×	2.00
Neither half drawn	46.2%	50.0%	46.3%	1.08×	2.00

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (DNB)	54.5%	51.0%	44.7%	1.14×	1.96
Augsburg (DNB)	45.5%	49.0%	55.3%	0.89×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to score first	51.2%	53.8%	43.6%	1.23×	1.86
Augsburg to score first	46.5%	45.5%	50.7%	0.90×	2.20
No goal scored	2.3%	4.2%	5.9%	0.72×	23.56

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	71.7%	62.3%	59.3%	1.05×	1.61
Not both teams to score	28.3%	37.7%	40.7%	0.93×	2.65

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	63.5%	50.2%	49.7%	1.01×	1.99
Not both score & under 2.5	19.3%	21.8%	28.2%	0.77×	4.60
Not both score & over 2.5	9.0%	8.4%	12.7%	0.66×	11.95
Both score & under 2.5	8.2%	8.4%	9.8%	0.85×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	68.7%	70.9%	79.7%	0.89×	1.41
Both teams to score 2+	31.3%	29.1%	20.3%	1.44×	3.44

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.1%	67.5%	65.6%	1.03×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.9%	32.5%	34.4%	0.94×	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	39.6%	45.4%	51.7%	0.88×	2.21
Both score 1st half only	26.6%	26.5%	14.1%	1.88×	3.78
Both score 2nd half only	20.3%	20.7%	27.7%	0.75×	4.82
Both score in both halves	13.6%	10.8%	6.8%	1.58×	9.29

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	59.8%	59.8%	79.2%	0.76×	1.67
Both teams to score by HT	40.2%	40.2%	20.8%	1.93×	2.49

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	71.6%	72.7%	66.9%	1.09×	1.38
A half without a goal	28.4%	27.3%	33.1%	0.82×	3.67

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	43.2%	42.1%	39.9%	1.06×	2.38
2-3 goals	37.1%	35.1%	38.8%	0.90×	2.85
0-1 goals	11.1%	16.9%	17.9%	0.95×	5.92
7+ goals	8.7%	7.6%	3.8%	2.00×	13.14

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to score 3+	31.5%	33.8%	21.0%	1.61×	2.96
Bayer Leverkusen to score exactly 1	27.5%	27.4%	32.0%	0.86×	3.65
Bayer Leverkusen to score exactly 2	27.1%	27.4%	22.0%	1.25×	3.65
Bayer Leverkusen to score exactly 0	13.9%	12.8%	25.3%	0.51×	7.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg to score exactly 1	29.9%	26.5%	29.1%	0.91×	3.77
Augsburg to score exactly 2	26.8%	26.5%	22.6%	1.17×	3.77
Augsburg to score 3+	26.7%	26.5%	27.4%	0.97×	3.77
Augsburg to score exactly 0	16.7%	18.9%	21.2%	0.89×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen leading at HT	38.6%	37.9%	29.3%	1.29×	2.64
Augsburg leading at HT	30.8%	33.5%	36.6%	0.92×	2.98
Draw at HT	30.6%	33.5%	34.2%	0.98×	2.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen -1: 1	57.1%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
Bayer Leverkusen -1: 2	23.8%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Bayer Leverkusen -1: X	19.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (0:1)	64.2%	61.5%	58.4%	1.05×	1.63
Augsburg (0:1)	18.4%	17.8%	24.7%	0.72×	5.63
Draw (0:1)	17.4%	17.8%	17.1%	1.04×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (0:2)	81.6%	82.8%	75.3%	1.10×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.6%	11.0%	13.1%	0.83×	9.13
Augsburg (0:2)	7.8%	7.7%	11.7%	0.66×	12.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (0:3)	92.2%	92.6%	88.3%	1.05×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.0%	5.8%	5.1%	1.15×	17.20
Augsburg (0:3)	2.8%	2.4%	6.8%	0.35×	42.14

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (0:4)	97.2%	98.1%	93.2%	1.05×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.9%	1.2%	5.2%	0.23×	83.45
Augsburg (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	1.7%	0.69×	83.58

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg (1:0)	57.1%	58.1%	66.3%	0.88×	1.72
Bayer Leverkusen (1:0)	23.8%	21.8%	17.4%	1.25×	4.59
Draw (1:0)	19.1%	17.0%	16.5%	1.04×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg (2:0)	76.2%	80.3%	82.6%	0.97×	1.25
Draw (2:0)	12.8%	10.4%	10.0%	1.04×	9.63
Bayer Leverkusen (2:0)	11.0%	10.4%	7.6%	1.36×	9.65

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	44.8%	49.9%	26.3%	1.90×	2.00
2nd half highest scoring	34.0%	29.7%	46.9%	0.63×	3.37
Halves equal	21.2%	24.1%	26.9%	0.89×	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg to concede	86.1%	86.0%	74.7%	1.15×	1.16
Augsburg clean sheet	13.9%	14.0%	25.3%	0.55×	7.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg to concede in 1st half	66.2%	68.5%	45.6%	1.50×	1.46
Augsburg clean sheet in 1st half	33.8%	31.5%	54.4%	0.58×	3.17

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg over 2.5 corners	83.2%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Augsburg over 3.5 corners	70.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Augsburg under 6.5 corners	69.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Augsburg under 5.5 corners	58.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Augsburg over 4.5 corners	55.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Augsburg under 4.5 corners	44.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Augsburg over 5.5 corners	42.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Augsburg over 6.5 corners	30.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Augsburg under 3.5 corners	29.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Augsburg under 2.5 corners	16.8%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg under 3.5 goals	89.3%	87.3%	88.6%	0.98×	1.15
Augsburg over 0.5 goals	83.3%	82.1%	78.8%	1.04×	1.22
Augsburg under 2.5 goals	73.3%	74.2%	72.6%	1.02×	1.35
Augsburg over 1.5 goals	53.5%	53.3%	49.8%	1.07×	1.88
Augsburg under 1.5 goals	46.5%	46.7%	50.2%	0.93×	2.14
Augsburg over 2.5 goals	26.7%	25.8%	27.4%	0.94×	3.87
Augsburg under 0.5 goals	16.7%	17.9%	21.2%	0.84×	5.59
Augsburg over 3.5 goals	10.7%	12.7%	11.4%	1.12×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg under 1.5 in 1st half	76.0%	77.0%	80.8%	0.95×	1.30
Augsburg over 0.5 in 1st half	60.7%	64.6%	51.8%	1.25×	1.55
Augsburg under 0.5 in 1st half	39.3%	35.4%	48.2%	0.74×	2.82
Augsburg over 1.5 in 1st half	24.0%	23.0%	19.2%	1.20×	4.35

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen (home no bet)	66.8%	63.9%	57.6%	1.11×	1.57
Draw (home no bet)	33.2%	36.1%	42.4%	0.85×	2.77

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg even goals	51.4%	50.6%	52.5%	0.96×	1.98
Augsburg odd goals	48.6%	49.4%	47.5%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other HT score	15.8%	18.7%	6.7%	2.81×	5.35
HT 0-1	14.4%	10.9%	16.5%	0.66×	9.14
HT 1-1	13.5%	10.9%	9.8%	1.11×	9.14
HT 0-0	13.3%	10.9%	23.3%	0.47×	9.15
HT 1-0	12.4%	10.9%	19.3%	0.57×	9.15
HT 0-2	7.8%	7.1%	7.1%	1.00×	14.04
HT 1-2	7.3%	7.1%	3.5%	2.04×	14.05
HT 2-1	6.3%	7.1%	4.3%	1.66×	14.06
HT 2-0	5.8%	7.1%	9.5%	0.75×	14.07
HT 2-2	3.4%	2.3%	1.3%	1.82×	43.36

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen at HT / Bayer Leverkusen at FT	29.9%	26.9%	20.3%	1.33×	3.71
Augsburg at HT / Augsburg at FT	23.0%	21.8%	28.1%	0.78×	4.58
Draw at HT / Bayer Leverkusen at FT	10.4%	12.7%	10.0%	1.27×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.2%	12.7%	13.9%	0.91×	7.90
Draw at HT / Augsburg at FT	9.9%	6.0%	10.6%	0.57×	16.59
Bayer Leverkusen at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.0%	6.0%	0.99×	16.71
Augsburg at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	5.1%	1.18×	16.73
Bayer Leverkusen at HT / Augsburg at FT	2.9%	3.5%	3.3%	1.04×	28.85
Augsburg at HT / Bayer Leverkusen at FT	2.6%	3.5%	3.8%	0.91×	28.86

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to score last	51.2%	51.9%	44.5%	1.17×	1.93
Augsburg to score last	46.5%	46.7%	49.8%	0.94×	2.14
No goal scored	2.3%	4.2%	5.9%	0.72×	23.56

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	97.7%	95.7%	94.1%	1.02×	1.05
Bayer Leverkusen to lead by 1 at any time	63.2%	61.3%	52.9%	1.16×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	60.0%	61.2%	55.9%	1.09×	1.63
Augsburg to lead by 1 at any time	57.4%	55.1%	59.6%	0.92×	1.82
Bayer Leverkusen to lead by 2 at any time	33.3%	29.4%	23.6%	1.25×	3.40
Augsburg to lead by 2 at any time	27.5%	25.4%	33.1%	0.77×	3.93
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	25.8%	25.4%	25.7%	0.99×	3.94
Bayer Leverkusen to lead by 3 at any time	14.7%	10.5%	10.3%	1.02×	9.50
Augsburg to lead by 3 at any time	11.1%	10.4%	15.5%	0.67×	9.58

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen most corners	53.9%	52.0%	—	—	1.93
Augsburg most corners	36.7%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	9.4%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	80.2%	83.5%	78.5%	1.06×	1.20
1-5 goals	79.8%	78.6%	83.2%	0.94×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.1%	72.4%	71.2%	1.02×	1.38
1-4 goals	65.2%	68.9%	72.3%	0.95×	1.45
3-6 goals	63.8%	63.4%	58.5%	1.08×	1.58
2-4 goals	56.5%	59.2%	60.3%	0.98×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.6%	53.2%	51.3%	1.04×	1.88
1-3 goals	45.8%	48.7%	50.8%	0.96×	2.06
4-6 goals	43.2%	43.6%	39.9%	1.09×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.0%	43.6%	40.3%	1.08×	2.30
2-3 goals	37.1%	39.1%	38.8%	1.01×	2.55
4-5 goals	34.0%	35.4%	32.6%	1.09×	2.83
1-2 goals	25.2%	30.2%	32.1%	0.94×	3.31
5-6 goals	23.8%	24.5%	18.4%	1.33×	4.09
7+ goals	8.7%	8.7%	3.8%	2.30×	11.44

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen never behind	40.3%	48.1%	40.4%	1.19×	2.08
Augsburg never behind	34.5%	35.8%	47.1%	0.76×	2.80

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.8%	44.8%	1.14×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.2%	55.2%	0.89×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	50.9%	51.6%	52.6%	0.98×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	49.1%	48.4%	47.4%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.5%	52.1%	52.9%	0.98×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.5%	47.9%	47.1%	1.02×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	97.7%	95.5%	94.1%	1.01×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	88.9%	87.7%	82.1%	1.07×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	82.1%	82.4%	88.9%	0.93×	1.21
Over 2.5 goals	72.5%	72.5%	62.2%	1.17×	1.38
Under 4.5 goals	67.5%	66.2%	78.0%	0.85×	1.51
Over 3.5 goals	51.9%	52.5%	43.5%	1.21×	1.91
Under 3.5 goals	48.1%	47.5%	56.5%	0.84×	2.10
Over 4.5 goals	32.5%	33.8%	22.0%	1.54×	2.96
Under 2.5 goals	27.5%	27.5%	37.8%	0.73×	3.64
Over 5.5 goals	17.9%	17.6%	11.1%	1.59×	5.68
Under 1.5 goals	11.1%	12.3%	17.9%	0.69×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	2.3%	4.5%	5.9%	0.77×	22.23

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	90.4%	92.4%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	86.8%	86.7%	77.7%	1.12×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	79.1%	75.9%	87.6%	0.87×	1.32
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	65.3%	67.4%	53.5%	1.26×	1.48
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	59.7%	55.5%	72.0%	0.77×	1.80
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	40.3%	44.5%	28.0%	1.59×	2.25
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	34.7%	32.6%	46.5%	0.70×	3.07
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	20.9%	24.1%	12.4%	1.93×	4.16
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	13.2%	13.3%	22.3%	0.59×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	9.6%	7.6%	4.1%	1.84×	13.24

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	86.7%	89.0%	76.7%	1.16×	1.12
Under 2.5 in 1st half	67.2%	69.0%	84.8%	0.81×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	59.9%	62.9%	41.2%	1.53×	1.59
Under 1.5 in 1st half	40.1%	37.1%	58.8%	0.63×	2.69
Over 2.5 in 1st half	32.8%	31.0%	15.2%	2.04×	3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half	13.3%	11.1%	23.3%	0.47×	9.05

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.5%	82.8%	84.3%	0.98×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.5%	77.8%	73.4%	1.06×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.0%	53.2%	55.3%	0.96×	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.0%	46.8%	44.7%	1.05×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.5%	22.2%	26.6%	0.83×	4.50
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.5%	17.2%	15.7%	1.09×	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg not to score in both halves	65.0%	70.3%	64.8%	1.08×	1.42
Bayer Leverkusen not to score in both halves	61.1%	63.3%	72.4%	0.87×	1.58
Bayer Leverkusen to score in both halves	38.9%	36.7%	27.6%	1.33×	2.73
Augsburg to score in both halves	35.0%	29.7%	35.2%	0.84×	3.37

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	71.7%	66.2%	59.3%	1.12×	1.51
Only Bayer Leverkusen scores	14.3%	10.9%	15.5%	0.71×	9.14
Only Augsburg scores	11.6%	10.9%	19.6%	0.56×	9.15
Neither team scores	2.3%	4.6%	5.9%	0.78×	21.89

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	20.6%	22.6%	18.8%	1.20×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	19.4%	17.4%	21.7%	0.80×	5.74
6 or more goals	17.9%	17.4%	11.1%	1.57×	5.74
Exactly 2 goals	16.4%	17.4%	20.1%	0.87×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	14.6%	12.1%	11.1%	1.09×	8.27
Exactly 1 goals	8.7%	7.6%	12.2%	0.63×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	2.3%	4.4%	5.9%	0.75×	22.68

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.0%	51.3%	55.3%	0.93×	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	30.5%	33.4%	29.2%	1.14×	3.00
No goals in 2nd half	17.5%	17.2%	15.7%	1.09×	5.83

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg not to win both halves	90.0%	93.9%	84.2%	1.12×	1.07
Bayer Leverkusen not to win both halves	86.8%	87.9%	90.5%	0.97×	1.14
Bayer Leverkusen to win both halves	13.2%	12.1%	9.5%	1.28×	8.25
Augsburg to win both halves	10.0%	6.1%	15.8%	0.39×	16.34

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Bayer Leverkusen to win either half	59.5%	59.5%	49.4%	1.20×	1.68
Augsburg to win either half	53.2%	55.0%	57.8%	0.95×	1.82
Augsburg to win neither half	46.8%	45.0%	42.2%	1.07×	2.22
Bayer Leverkusen to win neither half	40.5%	40.5%	50.6%	0.80×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Augsburg not to win to nil	88.4%	88.2%	80.4%	1.10×	1.13
Bayer Leverkusen not to win to nil	85.7%	88.2%	84.5%	1.04×	1.13
Bayer Leverkusen to win to nil	14.3%	11.8%	15.5%	0.76×	8.48
Augsburg to win to nil	11.6%	11.8%	19.6%	0.60×	8.50

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	21.3%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.14
Bayer Leverkusen by 1	19.1%	16.9%	16.5%	1.03×	5.91
Augsburg by 1	17.4%	16.9%	17.1%	0.99×	5.91
Bayer Leverkusen by 2	12.8%	11.8%	10.0%	1.18×	8.47
Bayer Leverkusen by 3+	11.0%	11.8%	7.6%	1.55×	8.48
Augsburg by 2	10.6%	11.8%	13.1%	0.90×	8.48
Augsburg by 3+	7.8%	7.3%	11.7%	0.62×	13.78