Augsburg v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 4 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 19
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
6 – 14
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.29 – 0.71
Goals − xG
+0.43 – +1.07
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Augsburg win
11.5%
Draw
22.1%
Bayern Munich win
66.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWDWWWD last 10
scored 34
from 32.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.86–2.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Augsburg 0.57 xGBayern Munich 1.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Augsburg attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 18' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jamal Musiala |
| 23' |
 Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fredrik Jensen |
| 25' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harry Kane |
| 28' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 29' |
Augsburg |
Dimitris Giannoulis | 0.29 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw |
| 32' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | João Palhinha |
| 33' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 38' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 41' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leroy Sané |
| 41' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 46' |
Augsburg |
Fredrik Jensen | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw |
| 47' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Bayern Munich |
João Palhinha | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 50' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fredrik Jensen |
| 51' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Leroy Sané |
| 59' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.49 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 64' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thomas Müller |
| 65' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 66' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 68' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 75' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 84' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 86' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 89' |
Augsburg |
Mërgim Berisha | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 92' |
Augsburg |
Chrislain Matsima | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kristijan Jakic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.04 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Frank Onyeka MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Samuel Essende FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Fredrik Jensen AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Phillip Tietz Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mërgim Berisha Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mert Kömür Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.09 | 0.45 |
| Leroy Sané AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.68 | 0.18 | 0.93 |
| João Palhinha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.50 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Josip Stanisic DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.88 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.54 |
| Jonas Urbig GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 69 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.49 | 0.27 |
| Jamal Musiala AMC | 56 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.41 |
| Thomas Müller Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.23 |
| Serge Gnabry Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| Gabriel Vidovic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raphael Guerreiro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |