Augsburg v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 31 October 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 5
On target
1 – 1
Shots in box
6 – 3
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-1.02 – +0.41
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Augsburg win
15.8%
Draw
20.7%
Borussia Dortmund win
63.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLLWLWWWW last 10
scored 20
from 22.3 xG
conceded 10
from 12.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.98–2.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.10–1.64 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 54% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Augsburg 1.02 xGBorussia Dortmund 0.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Augsburg attacking right
Borussia Dortmund attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19' |
 Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Elvis Rexhbecaj |
| 34' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 36' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 42' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pascal Groß |
| 54' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Brandt | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carney Chukwuemeka |
| 56' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Carney Chukwuemeka | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Julian Brandt |
| 58' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 65' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elias Saad |
| 70' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.17 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Elias Saad |
| 75' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 75' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Augsburg |
Noahkai Banks | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ismaël Gharbi |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Rexhbecaj MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Noahkai Banks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Fabian Rieder MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.55 | 0.62 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice ML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Robin Fellhauer DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Mert Kömür FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anton Kade Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Elias Saad Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Ismaël Gharbi Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Phillip Tietz Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Samuel Essende Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Julian Brandt FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ramy Bensebaini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pascal Groß MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Anselmino DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Maximilian Beier DML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Yan Couto DMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka FWR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Felix Nmecha MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Daniel Svensson Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jobe Bellingham Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcel Sabitzer Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Ryerson Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Karim Adeyemi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |