Augsburg v FC Cologne — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 27 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 10
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 9
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.32
Goals − xG
+0.44 – -0.50
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Augsburg win
38.5%
Draw
28.7%
FC Cologne win
32.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Augsburg are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWDLDLD last 10
scored 23
from 22.8 xG
conceded 19
from 22.3 xG
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.8 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLWLDLWLD last 10
scored 12
from 16.8 xG
conceded 21
from 17.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.35–1.23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.61–1.47 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Augsburg 1.56 xGFC Cologne 0.50 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Augsburg attacking right
FC Cologne attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mert Kömür |
| 6' |
Augsburg |
Noahkai Banks | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 7' |
 FC Cologne |
Cenk Özkacar | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 9' |
Augsburg |
Noahkai Banks | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 9' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
FC Cologne |
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gian-Luca Waldschmidt |
| 35' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 36' |
FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eric Martel |
| 37' |
FC Cologne |
Eric Martel | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Jakub Kaminski |
| 41' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Noahkai Banks |
| 41' |
Augsburg |
Robin Fellhauer | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 43' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 54' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.70 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Noahkai Banks |
| 58' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 63' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cédric Zesiger |
| 64' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 75' |
FC Cologne |
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Fellhauer |
| 80' |
Augsburg |
Keven Schlotterbeck | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anton Kade |
| 88' |
FC Cologne |
Felipe Chávez | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 93' |
FC Cologne |
Cenk Özkacar | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Youssoupha Niang |
| 94' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.19 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Gregoritsch |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Noahkai Banks DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.76 | 0.84 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabian Rieder DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.79 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Mert Kömür AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Robin Fellhauer DMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Rodrigo Ribeiro FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Kristijan Jakic MC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Yannik Keitel Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Michael Gregoritsch Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| Marius Wolf Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anton Kade Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kristoffer Lund DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jakub Kaminski DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| Rav van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ragnar Ache FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tom Krauß MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Jahmai Simpson-Pusey DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| Marius Bülter AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Eric Martel MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Said El Mala Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssoupha Niang Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Felipe Chávez Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Fynn Schenten Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |