Augsburg v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 10 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 13
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
12 – 10
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.91 – 0.50
Goals − xG
-0.68 – +0.57
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Augsburg win
22.6%
Draw
24.2%
Hoffenheim win
53.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.19–1.91 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.71 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Augsburg 2.68 xGHoffenheim 1.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Augsburg attacking right
Hoffenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Fellhauer |
| 7' |
 Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oliver Baumann |
| 10' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Robin Fellhauer |
| 13' |
Augsburg |
Michael Gregoritsch | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw |
| 16' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.13 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 31' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 34' |
Hoffenheim |
Robin Hranác | 0.27 | From Corner | — | Goal | Vladimir Coufal |
| 34' |
Hoffenheim |
Vladimir Coufal | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 35' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 41' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fisnik Asllani |
| 43' |
Augsburg |
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 45' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 45' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.56 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Grischa Prömel |
| 46' |
Augsburg |
Michael Gregoritsch | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Marius Wolf |
| 47' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fisnik Asllani |
| 59' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 61' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 64' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Albian Hajdari |
| 65' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 68' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 68' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anton Kade |
| 74' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 84' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.76 | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — | |
| 86' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Hoffenheim |
Leon Avdullahu | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Muhammed Damar |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.05 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Anton Kade AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 1.00 |
| Fabian Rieder MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.24 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Arthur Chaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Robin Fellhauer MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.53 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| Michael Gregoritsch FW | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC | 66 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Rodrigo Ribeiro Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Kristijan Jakic Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mert Kömür Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismaël Gharbi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Lemperle FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Robin Hranác DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Grischa Prömel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.56 | 0.73 |
| Bazoumana Touré ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Ozan Kabak DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Fisnik Asllani FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| Leon Avdullahu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Vladimir Coufal MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.37 | 0.68 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Andrej Kramaric AMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Bernardo Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexander Prass Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Akpoguma Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Muhammed Damar Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |