Augsburg v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 12
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 11
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.50 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.13 – +1.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Augsburg win
21.7%
Draw
29.3%
Mainz 05 win
49.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDLWLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 23.4 xG
conceded 12
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.88–1.45 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.19–1.42 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Augsburg 0.87 xGMainz 05 2.57 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Augsburg attacking right
Mainz 05 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Mainz 05 |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andreas Hanche-Olsen |
| 6' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
 Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mert Kömür |
| 12' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Han-Noah Massengo |
| 13' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 16' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 19' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Han-Noah Massengo |
| 20' |
Augsburg |
Chrislain Matsima | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Augsburg |
Chrislain Matsima | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Han-Noah Massengo |
| 25' |
Mainz 05 |
Dominik Kohr | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 27' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 29' |
Mainz 05 |
Armindo Sieb | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elias Saad |
| 46' |
Mainz 05 |
Armindo Sieb | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kaishu Sano |
| 50' |
Mainz 05 |
Arnaud Nordin | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nadiem Amiri |
| 54' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.15 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kaishu Sano |
| 62' |
Augsburg |
Keven Schlotterbeck | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Fabian Rieder |
| 62' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw |
| 64' |
Mainz 05 |
Kaishu Sano | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Paul Nebel |
| 68' |
Mainz 05 |
Armindo Sieb | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Andreas Hanche-Olsen |
| 71' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Samuel Essende |
| 76' |
Mainz 05 |
Armindo Sieb | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 82' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chrislain Matsima |
| 82' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 84' |
Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 88' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kristijan Jakic |
| 89' |
Augsburg |
Keven Schlotterbeck | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 90' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Phillip Tietz |
| 92' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mert Kömür |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Rieder AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| Mert Kömür MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj DML | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Elias Saad AMC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Samuel Essende Sub | 39 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Kristijan Jakic Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| Robin Fellhauer Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Phillip Tietz Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Nebel AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.70 | 0.07 | 0.70 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.67 | 0.83 |
| Robin Zentner GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| Anthony Caci DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.68 |
| Armindo Sieb FW | 86 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.20 | 0.00 | 1.31 |
| Philipp Mwene DML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Andreas Hanche-Olsen DC | 86 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| Arnaud Nordin AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 58 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Stefan Bell Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Maxim Leitsch Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nelson Weiper Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Silvan Widmer Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikolas Veratschnig Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |