Augsburg v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 October 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 15
On target
2 – 8
Shots in box
5 – 10
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.59
Goals − xG
-0.64 – +3.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Augsburg win
30.6%
Draw
26.4%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
43.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.23–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.19–1.67 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 57% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Augsburg 0.64 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 2.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Augsburg attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Augsburg |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elias Saad |
| 7' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elias Saad |
| 7' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elias Saad |
| 9' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rômulo |
| 13' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Elias Saad |
| 15' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rômulo |
| 17' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 17' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Assan Ouédraogo |
| 20' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elias Saad |
| 21' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yan Diomande |
| 30' |
Augsburg |
Elias Saad | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Han-Noah Massengo |
| 32' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elias Saad |
| 36' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kristijan Jakic |
| 37' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yan Diomande |
| 45' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 45' |
Augsburg |
Chrislain Matsima | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Augsburg |
Robin Fellhauer | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elias Saad |
| 52' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Fellhauer |
| 52' |
Augsburg |
Robin Fellhauer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anton Kade |
| 54' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bote Baku |
| 55' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 61' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 63' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Conrad Harder |
| 64' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Castello Lukeba | 0.51 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 73' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
El Chadaille Bitshiabu | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | David Raum |
| 74' |
Augsburg |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anton Kade |
| 81' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Tidiam Gomis | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrija Maksimovic |
| 84' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Tidiam Gomis |
| 92' |
Augsburg |
Ismaël Gharbi | 0.12 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Robin Fellhauer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Kristijan Jakic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Noahkai Banks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Anton Kade DMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Elias Saad FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0.03 | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| Fabian Rieder AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ismaël Gharbi Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Phillip Tietz Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Aiman Dardari Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Wolf Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castello Lukeba DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Antonio Nusa FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.04 | 1.43 |
| Bote Baku DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 1.33 |
| Péter Gulácsi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| David Raum DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.45 |
| Nicolas Seiwald MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.87 |
| Assan Ouédraogo MC | 72 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.55 | 1.24 |
| Willi Orban DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Rômulo FW | 65 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.34 | 1.46 |
| Yan Diomande FWR | 65 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.57 | 1.02 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 65 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Tidiam Gomis Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Conrad Harder Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Xaver Schlager Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Andrija Maksimovic Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |