Augsburg v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 May 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 5
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 3
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
0.19 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.58 – +0.78
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Augsburg win
42.4%
Draw
30.6%
Union Berlin win
27.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Augsburg are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWDLDLD last 10
scored 23
from 22.8 xG
conceded 19
from 22.3 xG
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.24–0.93 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Augsburg 1.58 xGUnion Berlin 1.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Augsburg attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 6' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 9' |
 Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tim Skarke |
| 31' |
Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Mert Kömür |
| 33' |
Augsburg |
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mert Kömür |
| 40' |
Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Chrislain Matsima |
| 41' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Cédric Zesiger |
| 42' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Phillip Tietz |
| 45' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 51' |
Augsburg |
Cédric Zesiger | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kristijan Jakic |
| 56' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kristijan Jakic |
| 58' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chrislain Matsima |
| 61' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Phillip Tietz |
| 67' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrej Ilic |
| 68' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.97 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 71' |
Augsburg |
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Phillip Tietz |
| 77' |
Augsburg |
Cédric Zesiger | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 77' |
Augsburg |
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 82' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristijan Jakic |
| 82' |
Augsburg |
Steve Mounie | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Union Berlin |
László Bénes | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Augsburg |
Fredrik Jensen | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Steve Mounie |
| 93' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rani Khedira |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Tietz FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.46 | 0.14 | 0.61 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Kristijan Jakic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.21 | 0.56 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.36 | 0.86 |
| Frank Onyeka MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mert Kömür AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.13 | 0.04 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Arne Maier Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robert Gumny Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Steve Mounie Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Fredrik Jensen Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Janik Haberer DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Rothe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Alexander Schwolow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benedict Hollerbach FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Tim Skarke AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| David Preu AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josip Juranovic DML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Andras Schafer MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrej Ilic Sub | 28 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.10 | 0.08 | 1.17 |
| Lucas Tousart Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Christopher Trimmel Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marin Ljubicic Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| László Bénes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.14 |