Augsburg v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 13
On target
7 – 8
Shots in box
7 – 11
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.31
Set-piece xG
0.64 – 0.42
Goals − xG
+0.34 – +0.94
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Augsburg win
24.5%
Draw
25.7%
VfB Stuttgart win
49.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.17–1.74 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.48–1.85 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 65% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Augsburg 1.66 xGVfB Stuttgart 4.06 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Augsburg attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 6' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nikolas Nartey | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Chris Führich |
| 7' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Julian Chabot | 0.39 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Chris Führich |
| 11' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.68 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 15' |
 Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Fellhauer |
| 18' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 28' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nikolas Nartey |
| 30' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Nikolas Nartey | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 34' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Robin Fellhauer |
| 35' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 46' |
Augsburg |
Han-Noah Massengo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 54' |
Augsburg |
Cédric Zesiger | 0.34 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Michael Gregoritsch |
| 56' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Robin Fellhauer |
| 56' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 57' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 57' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 62' |
Augsburg |
Michael Gregoritsch | 0.25 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 66' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Tiago Tomás | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 68' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Maximilian Mittelstädt |
| 70' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 70' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cédric Zesiger |
| 73' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Deniz Undav |
| 90' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cédric Zesiger |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Fabian Rieder AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Robin Fellhauer DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Rodrigo Ribeiro FW | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj MC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Noahkai Banks DC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anton Kade Sub | 39 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Michael Gregoritsch Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| Arthur Chaves Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Kristijan Jakic Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Uchenna Ogundu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deniz Undav FW | 90 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1.35 | 0.60 | 2.88 |
| Nikolas Nartey AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.41 | 1.80 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 1.01 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| Tiago Tomás AMR | 86 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Lorenz Assignon DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Chris Führich AML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.75 | 1.33 |
| Chema Andres DMC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
| Ramon Hendriks Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Atakan Karazor Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ermedin Demirovic Sub | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Joshua Vagnoman Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeremy Arévalo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |