Auxerre v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 August 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 15
On target
7 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 11
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.57 – 0.46
Goals − xG
-0.76 – +1.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Auxerre win
50.2%
Draw
29.3%
Angers win
20.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWLLLWWLW last 10
scored 18
from 14.1 xG
conceded 19
from 19.7 xG
Angers are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDDLWLDWLL last 10
scored 12
from 15.4 xG
conceded 20
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.44–0.83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.04 | 1-1 12% | 46% | 50% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Auxerre 1.76 xGAngers 1.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Auxerre attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Angers |
Branco van den Boomen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 5' |
 Auxerre |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 7' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Sy |
| 15' |
Auxerre |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Auxerre |
Clément Akpa | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romain Faivre |
| 28' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlens Arcus |
| 34' |
Auxerre |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Romain Faivre |
| 36' |
Auxerre |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 38' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Angers |
Amine El Ouazzani | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 41' |
Auxerre |
Romain Faivre | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 41' |
Auxerre |
Sinaly Diomande | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Auxerre |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Auxerre |
Romain Faivre | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Naouirou Ahamada |
| 49' |
Angers |
Anthony Bermont | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 51' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Remy Labeau Lascary |
| 52' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Bermont |
| 53' |
Angers |
Ousmane Camara | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Branco van den Boomen |
| 54' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Naouirou Ahamada |
| 56' |
Angers |
Jim Allevinah | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Yassin Belkhdim |
| 58' |
Angers |
Anthony Bermont | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jim Allevinah |
| 66' |
Auxerre |
Lamine Sy | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Naouirou Ahamada |
| 69' |
Angers |
Djibirin Harouna | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Amine El Ouazzani |
| 75' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Djibirin Harouna |
| 77' |
Angers |
Amine El Ouazzani | 0.42 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Ousmane Camara |
| 79' |
Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Naouirou Ahamada |
| 82' |
Angers |
Djibirin Harouna | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Prosper Peter |
| 82' |
Auxerre |
Theo Bair | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Sy |
| 83' |
Angers |
Prosper Peter | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 84' |
Auxerre |
Lamfia Dioubaté | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Naouirou Ahamada |
| 86' |
Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aristide Zossou |
Players
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine El Ouazzani FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Yassin Belkhdim DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.33 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| Branco van den Boomen DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.21 |
| Anthony Lopes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Joseph Kalulu DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Carlens Arcus DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.36 |
| Amine Sbaï AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.11 | 0.41 |
| Anthony Bermont AML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.08 | 0.75 |
| Jim Allevinah AMR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.57 | 0.02 |
| Prosper Peter Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Djibirin Harouna Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| Mamadou Simbakoli Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Louãr Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bané Diatta Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clément Akpa DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.38 | 0.66 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Lamine Sy DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.26 |
| Mamadou Diop GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Naouirou Ahamada MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.51 |
| Arthur Piedfort MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Danny Namaso FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Romain Faivre FWR | 75 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.43 | 0.20 |
| Elikya Legros DC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Remy Labeau Lascary FWL | 65 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.82 | 0.08 | 0.90 |
| Fredrik Oppegård Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Aristide Zossou Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Theo Bair Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Josué Casimir Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lamfia Dioubaté Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |