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Auxerre v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG

2–1
0.77 – 0.30 xG
Shots
11 – 9
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
3 – 3
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.23
Goals − xG
+1.23 – +0.70
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.20.40.60.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Pathé Mboup 22' — goalCameron Archer 46' — goal
Auxerre 0.77 xGBrest 0.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Pathé Mboup 11' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Kamory Doumbia 13' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Joris Chotard 16' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Pathé Mboup 22' — Goal (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Pathé Mboup 31' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Raphaël Le Guen 31' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Arthur Piedfort 35' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Joris Chotard 41' — Shot On Post (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Cameron Archer 46' — Goal (0.40 xG, Open Play)Naouirou Ahamada 49' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Cameron Archer 52' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lamine Sy 55' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Danny Namaso 57' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Gautier Lloris 62' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Danny Namaso 78' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Naouirou Ahamada 80' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Naouirou Ahamada 80' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Raphaël Le Guen 82' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Lamine Sy 92' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Pierre Ekwah 92' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)
Auxerre attacking right Brest attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
11' Brest Pathé Mboup 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ludovic Ajorque
13' Brest Kamory Doumbia 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Kenny Lala
16' Brest Joris Chotard 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Pathé Mboup
22' Brest Pathé Mboup 0.04 Set Piece Right Foot Goal Joris Chotard
31' Brest Pathé Mboup 0.05 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot Raphaël Le Guen
31' Brest Raphaël Le Guen 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Joris Chotard
35' Auxerre Arthur Piedfort 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
41' Brest Joris Chotard 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Shot On Post —
46' Auxerre Cameron Archer 0.40 Open Play Left Foot Goal Danny Namaso
49' Auxerre Naouirou Ahamada 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Kévin Danois
52' Auxerre Cameron Archer 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Kévin Danois
55' Auxerre Lamine Sy 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot —
57' Auxerre Danny Namaso 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Romain Faivre
62' Brest Gautier Lloris 0.02 From Corner — Saved Shot Joris Chotard
78' Auxerre Danny Namaso 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Cameron Archer
80' Auxerre Naouirou Ahamada 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Romain Faivre
80' Auxerre Naouirou Ahamada 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Fredrik Oppegård
82' Brest Raphaël Le Guen 0.00 Open Play Right Foot Own Goal —
92' Auxerre Lamine Sy 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kévin Danois
92' Auxerre Pierre Ekwah 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Romain Faivre

Players

Brest

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Kamory Doumbia AMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.03
Raphaël Le Guen DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.05 0.03
Kenny Lala DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Hugo Magnetti DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Egil Selvik GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Bradley Locko DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Joris Chotard DMC 87 0 1 2 3 0.12 0.07 0.02
Ludovic Ajorque FW 87 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
Pathé Mboup AML 79 1 0 3 1 0.14 0.06 0.06
Gautier Lloris DC 79 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Giovani Versini AMR 69 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Mama Baldé Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lucas Tousart Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Djylian N'Guessan Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Joseph Nonge Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mathis Lainé Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Auxerre

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Cameron Archer FW 90 1 0 2 1 0.43 0.07 0.50
Lamine Sy DMR 90 0 0 2 0 0.15 0.00 0.18
Clément Akpa DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.53
Axel Tuanzebe DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.44
Mamadou Diop GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Christ Makosso DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Kévin Danois MC 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.18 0.63
Danny Namaso FWR 88 0 1 2 1 0.10 0.40 0.52
Fredrik Oppegård DML 87 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.52
Arthur Piedfort MC 47 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.00
Remy Labeau Lascary FWL 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Naouirou Ahamada Sub 43 0 0 3 0 0.06 0.00 0.11
Romain Faivre Sub 43 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.07 0.47
Rayan Mandengue Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pierre Ekwah Sub 2 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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