Auxerre v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 9
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 4
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.68 – 0.15
Goals − xG
+0.94 – -0.88
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Auxerre win
37.1%
Draw
27.9%
Brest win
35.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Brest are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLLDDD last 10
scored 13
from 15.9 xG
conceded 23
from 18.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.14–1.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.35–1.20 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Auxerre 2.06 xGBrest 0.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Auxerre attacking right
Brest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Auxerre |
Lamine Sy | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 8' |
 Brest |
Daouda Guindo | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 23' |
Auxerre |
Bryan Okoh | 0.17 | From Corner | — | Goal | Romain Faivre |
| 27' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Auxerre |
Bryan Okoh | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 39' |
Brest |
Michel Diaz | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Kenny Lala |
| 45' |
Brest |
Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Auxerre |
Bryan Okoh | 0.48 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Romain Faivre |
| 69' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Gideon Mensah |
| 73' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mama Baldé |
| 77' |
Auxerre |
Lamine Sy | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josué Casimir |
| 78' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Magnetti |
| 79' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Okoh |
| 85' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 88' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hamidou Makalou |
| 92' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Clément Akpa |
| 95' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Josué Casimir |
| 96' |
Brest |
Pathé Mboup | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Brest |
Remy Labeau Lascary | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hamidou Makalou |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remy Labeau Lascary FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Michel Diaz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| Romain Del Castillo AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.56 |
| Grégoire Coudert GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Hugo Magnetti DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| Soumaila Coulibaly DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daouda Guindo DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe AML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lucas Tousart AMC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Pathé Mboup Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mama Baldé Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Hamidou Makalou Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Bradley Locko Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Raphaël Le Guen Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.18 | 0.00 | 1.19 |
| Bryan Okoh DC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Lamine Sy DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| Elisha Owusu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danny Namaso AMC | 89 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 89 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Théo De Percin Sub | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Romain Faivre MR | 69 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.00 |
| Josué Casimir Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.74 |
| Fredrik Oppegård ML | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Naouirou Ahamada Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clément Akpa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |