Auxerre v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 December 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 9
On target
8 – 5
Shots in box
13 – 4
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
2.55 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.05 – +3.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Auxerre win
26.7%
Draw
23.7%
Lille win
49.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.02–1.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.07–1.67 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 53% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Auxerre 3.05 xGLille 0.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Auxerre attacking right
Lille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 8' |
Lille |
Osame Sahraoui | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Olivier Giroud |
| 15' |
 Auxerre |
Sinaly Diomande | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 22' |
Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 32' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 43' |
Lille |
Ethan Mbappé | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lamine Sy |
| 46' |
Auxerre |
Lamine Sy | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sinaly Diomande |
| 49' |
Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 54' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.58 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Auxerre |
Sinaly Diomande | 0.92 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danny Namaso |
| 54' |
Auxerre |
Sékou Mara | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 56' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Goal | Kévin Danois |
| 58' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sékou Mara |
| 65' |
Lille |
Chancel Mbemba | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 71' |
Lille |
Nabil Bentaleb | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Lille |
Nabil Bentaleb | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Lille |
Nabil Bentaleb | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 79' |
Lille |
Soriba Diaoune | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 82' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 84' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Goal | Romain Perraud |
| 96' |
Auxerre |
Assane Diousse | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gideon Mensah |
| 96' |
Auxerre |
Sékou Mara | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Assane Diousse |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nabil Bentaleb DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Benjamin André DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Aissa Mandi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ethan Mbappé AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Olivier Giroud FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 76 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Thomas Meunier DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Osame Sahraoui AML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Chancel Mbemba Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felix Correia Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tiago Santos Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Soriba Diaoune Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko FWL | 90 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.97 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.97 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Danny Namaso FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.68 | 1.10 | 0.35 |
| Lamine Sy DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Oussama El Azzouzi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Fredrik Oppegård DL | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Josué Casimir FWR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Clément Akpa DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Rudy Matondo MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sékou Mara Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Assane Diousse Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Gideon Mensah Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Lasso Coulibaly Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |