Auxerre v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 September 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 14
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
4 – 12
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.30 – 0.40
Goals − xG
+0.10 – +0.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Auxerre win
23.5%
Draw
24.9%
Monaco win
51.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.14–1.78 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.04–2.35 | 1-2 10% | 66% | 58% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Auxerre 0.90 xGMonaco 1.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Auxerre attacking right
Monaco attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 7' |
 Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 9' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 11' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 20' |
Auxerre |
Sékou Mara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 21' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Fredrik Oppegård |
| 25' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 26' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 33' |
Auxerre |
Elisha Owusu | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sékou Mara |
| 35' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vanderson |
| 35' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 46' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Folarin Balogun |
| 56' |
Monaco |
Folarin Balogun | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kassoum Ouattara |
| 64' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 69' |
Monaco |
Caio Henrique | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.25 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Elisha Owusu |
| 72' |
Monaco |
Mohammed Salisu | 0.00 | From Corner | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 75' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Lamine Camara |
| 86' |
Monaco |
Paris Brunner | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | George Ilenikhena |
| 88' |
Monaco |
George Ilenikhena | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Goal | Vanderson |
| 90' |
Auxerre |
Ibrahim Osman | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Danny Namaso |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Takumi Minamino ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Vanderson DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| Denis Zakaria MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Maghnes Akliouche MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.56 |
| Mohammed Salisu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Philipp Köhn GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mika Biereth FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.08 | 0.64 |
| Aladji Bamba MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Folarin Balogun FW | 65 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| Kassoum Ouattara DL | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Caio Henrique Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| Paris Brunner Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| George Ilenikhena Sub | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Lamine Camara Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Namaso ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.36 | 0.45 |
| Elisha Owusu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.25 | 0.02 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| Telli Siwe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Théo De Percin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marvin Senaya DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Fredrik Oppegård DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Gideon Mensah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lassine Sinayoko MR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Josué Casimir DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Sékou Mara FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Lasso Coulibaly Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rudy Matondo Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibrahim Osman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |