Auxerre v Montpellier — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 March 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 12
On target
6 – 1
Shots in box
16 – 4
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-1.12 – -0.47
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Auxerre win
50.5%
Draw
27.7%
Montpellier win
21.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Montpellier are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLLLLLDLLL last 10
scored 2
from 6.4 xG
conceded 21
from 19.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.78–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Auxerre 2.12 xGMontpellier 0.47 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Auxerre attacking right
Montpellier attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Montpellier |
Joris Chotard | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Téji Savanier |
| 6' |
Montpellier |
Joris Chotard | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tanguy Coulibaly |
| 8' |
Montpellier |
Othmane Maamma | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
 Auxerre |
Theo Bair | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 23' |
Montpellier |
Joris Chotard | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Tanguy Coulibaly |
| 23' |
Montpellier |
Joris Chotard | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Auxerre |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Elisha Owusu |
| 27' |
Auxerre |
Gaetan Perrin | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hamed Junior Traore |
| 31' |
Montpellier |
Jordan Ferri | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
Montpellier |
Téji Savanier | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tanguy Coulibaly |
| 37' |
Auxerre |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 38' |
Auxerre |
Clément Akpa | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 39' |
Montpellier |
Nicolas Pays | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Téji Savanier |
| 41' |
Auxerre |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fredrik Oppegård |
| 44' |
Auxerre |
Theo Bair | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 45' |
Auxerre |
Fredrik Oppegård | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 45' |
Auxerre |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 46' |
Auxerre |
Theo Bair | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 47' |
Auxerre |
Gaetan Perrin | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Montpellier |
Bamo Meïté | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Téji Savanier |
| 52' |
Auxerre |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ki-Jana Hoever |
| 53' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hamed Junior Traore |
| 59' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Han-Noah Massengo |
| 61' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Ki-Jana Hoever |
| 63' |
Auxerre |
Gaetan Perrin | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hamed Junior Traore |
| 64' |
Montpellier |
Joris Chotard | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Auxerre |
Hamed Junior Traore | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 68' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gaetan Perrin |
| 68' |
Montpellier |
Nicolas Pays | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andy Delort |
| 72' |
Auxerre |
Gaetan Perrin | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 81' |
Auxerre |
Florian Aye | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ki-Jana Hoever |
| 88' |
Montpellier |
Wahbi Khazri | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Auxerre |
Florian Aye | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hamed Junior Traore |
Players
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaetan Perrin AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 1.11 |
| Hamed Junior Traore AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.59 | 1.58 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.23 | 1.38 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jubal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Gabriel Osho DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Ki-Jana Hoever DMR | 88 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 1.07 |
| Clément Akpa DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Fredrik Oppegård DML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.39 |
| Theo Bair FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Elisha Owusu MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Lassine Sinayoko Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 1.31 |
| Han-Noah Massengo Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.45 |
| Florian Aye Sub | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.95 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Gideon Mensah Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Paul Joly Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
Montpellier
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Téji Savanier AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Modibo Sagnan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Tanguy Coulibaly AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| Issiaga Sylla DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Falaye Sacko DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Benjamin Lecomte GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jordan Ferri DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Joris Chotard DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Bamo Meïté DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nicolas Pays FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Othmane Maamma AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Andy Delort Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Rabby Nzingoula Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Khalil Fayad Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yael Mouanga Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wahbi Khazri Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |