Auxerre v Paris FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 7 November 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Auxerre

14:00 UTC

Paris FC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 363h before kick-off

Auxerre win

29.4%

model 30.6%

Draw

27.3%

model 25.0%

Paris FC win

43.3%

model 44.4%

292743

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.8%
0-1 9.6%
1-2 9.1%
1-0 7.7%
0-2 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.6%	Under 2.5	47.4%
BTTS yes	55.8%	BTTS no	44.2%
Auxerre 1+	71.0%	Auxerre 2+	35.1%
Paris FC 1+	78.6%	Paris FC 2+	45.6%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.54. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

97/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Paris FC clean sheet in 2nd half

Away clean sheet 2HT · usually 38%

54.8% fair odds 1.83

strong signal · 722 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Auxerre not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 76%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Paris FC carry the stronger rating, 1650 Elo against 1509.
Paris FC have created 2.02 xG a match over their last five while Auxerre have allowed 1.97.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Paris FC average 1.88 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Paris FC have an estimated 43.3% win probability, against 29.4% for Auxerre and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.24 for Auxerre and 1.54 for Paris FC.

Why Auxerre

Auxerre have created 1.41 xG a match over their last five while Paris FC have allowed 0.99. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. At home Auxerre average 1.53 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Paris FC can win

Paris FC carry the stronger rating, 1650 Elo against 1509. Paris FC have created 2.02 xG a match over their last five while Auxerre have allowed 1.97. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Paris FC average 1.88 xG a match.

Key players

Auxerre's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Cameron Archer (0.54), Lassine Sinayoko (0.49), Danny Namaso (0.37). Paris FC's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Lassine Sinayoko (0.60), Ilan Kebbal (0.32), Marshall Munetsi (0.32).

Availability

1 of Auxerre's top three contributors did not start their last match. Auxerre changed goalkeeper for their last match. 36% of Auxerre's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Paris FC's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Auxerre: 42% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.16 xG a match from set pieces. Paris FC: 52% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.27 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Paris FC are the model's most likely outcome at 43.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 97/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WWWLLLWWLW last 10 scored 18 from 14.1 xG conceded 19 from 19.7 xG

Paris FC have scored 19 from 20.2 expected and conceded 10 from 9.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WLWDWWDWLW last 10 scored 19 from 20.2 xG conceded 10 from 9.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	312544	1.24–1.54	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	322741	1.13–1.32	1-1 13%	44%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC to win	42.2%	42.9%	31.4%	1.37×	2.33
Auxerre to win	33.2%	30.4%	46.2%	0.66×	3.29
Draw	24.6%	24.5%	22.6%	1.08×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC & both teams score	21.9%	21.8%	15.9%	1.37×	4.59
Paris FC & not both score	20.4%	21.8%	15.6%	1.39×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	19.1%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Auxerre & both teams score	17.6%	18.0%	22.7%	0.79×	5.56
Auxerre & not both score	15.6%	18.0%	23.6%	0.76×	5.57
Draw & not both score	5.4%	8.3%	6.3%	1.31×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC & over 1.5	33.8%	30.8%	25.4%	1.21×	3.25
Paris FC & over 2.5	27.2%	26.1%	19.9%	1.31×	3.84
Paris FC & under 3.5	27.4%	26.1%	20.4%	1.28×	3.84
Auxerre & over 1.5	25.8%	26.1%	36.1%	0.72×	3.84
Auxerre & under 3.5	22.4%	21.6%	29.5%	0.73×	4.63
Auxerre & over 2.5	20.8%	21.6%	28.8%	0.75×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	19.1%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.9%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.9%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.56
Paris FC & under 2.5	15.1%	18.0%	11.7%	1.54×	5.56
Paris FC & over 3.5	14.8%	12.8%	11.2%	1.15×	7.79
Auxerre & under 2.5	12.4%	12.8%	17.6%	0.73×	7.79
Auxerre & over 3.5	10.8%	12.8%	16.8%	0.76×	7.79
Auxerre & under 1.5	7.4%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Paris FC & under 1.5	8.5%	7.9%	6.2%	1.28×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC (1UP)	59.2%	58.2%	48.9%	1.19×	1.72
Auxerre (1UP)	51.5%	52.5%	59.1%	0.89×	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC (2UP)	42.2%	47.1%	33.7%	1.40×	2.12
Auxerre (2UP)	33.2%	30.5%	48.2%	0.63×	3.28

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC to win 2nd half	35.9%	36.0%	27.0%	1.33×	2.78
2nd half drawn	33.9%	34.4%	31.3%	1.10×	2.91
Auxerre to win 2nd half	30.2%	34.3%	41.9%	0.82×	2.92

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC under 1.5 in 2nd half	77.0%	78.9%	82.2%	0.96×	1.27
Paris FC over 0.5 in 2nd half	59.6%	54.7%	50.3%	1.09×	1.83
Paris FC under 0.5 in 2nd half	40.4%	45.3%	49.7%	0.91×	2.21
Paris FC over 1.5 in 2nd half	23.0%	21.1%	17.8%	1.18×	4.74

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre under 1.5 in 2nd half	80.8%	82.4%	75.5%	1.09×	1.21
Auxerre over 0.5 in 2nd half	55.2%	57.8%	62.1%	0.93×	1.73
Auxerre under 0.5 in 2nd half	44.8%	42.2%	37.9%	1.11×	2.37
Auxerre over 1.5 in 2nd half	19.2%	17.6%	24.5%	0.72×	5.68

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC (+2.5)	94.8%	92.1%	90.1%	1.02×	1.09
Paris FC (+1.5)	85.2%	88.4%	75.5%	1.17×	1.13
Paris FC (+0.5)	66.8%	68.7%	53.8%	1.28×	1.46
Auxerre (+0.5)	57.8%	57.0%	68.6%	0.83×	1.75
Paris FC (-0.5)	42.2%	43.0%	31.4%	1.37×	2.33
Auxerre (-0.5)	33.2%	31.3%	46.2%	0.68×	3.19
Auxerre (-1.5)	14.8%	11.6%	24.5%	0.47×	8.66
Auxerre (-2.5)	5.2%	7.9%	9.9%	0.80×	12.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC to concede	74.2%	76.7%	78.2%	0.98×	1.30
Paris FC clean sheet	25.8%	23.3%	21.8%	1.07×	4.30

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC clean sheet in 1st half	57.6%	57.0%	51.8%	1.10×	1.75
Paris FC to concede in 1st half	42.4%	43.0%	48.2%	0.89×	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC to concede in 2nd half	55.2%	57.1%	62.1%	0.92×	1.75
Paris FC clean sheet in 2nd half	44.8%	42.9%	37.9%	1.13×	2.33

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC over 2.5 corners	79.6%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Paris FC under 6.5 corners	72.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Paris FC over 3.5 corners	65.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Paris FC under 5.5 corners	61.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Paris FC over 4.5 corners	51.4%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Paris FC under 4.5 corners	48.6%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Paris FC over 5.5 corners	38.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Paris FC under 3.5 corners	34.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Paris FC over 6.5 corners	27.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Paris FC under 2.5 corners	20.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC under 3.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	93.7%	0.99×	1.08
Paris FC under 2.5 goals	79.4%	76.3%	84.5%	0.90×	1.31
Paris FC over 0.5 goals	78.9%	76.3%	70.2%	1.09×	1.31
Paris FC under 1.5 goals	53.9%	53.5%	63.1%	0.85×	1.87
Paris FC over 1.5 goals	46.1%	46.5%	36.9%	1.26×	2.15
Paris FC under 0.5 goals	21.1%	23.7%	29.8%	0.80×	4.21
Paris FC over 2.5 goals	20.6%	23.7%	15.5%	1.53×	4.22
Paris FC over 3.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	6.3%	1.21×	13.06

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC under 1.5 in 1st half	86.1%	89.1%	87.8%	1.02×	1.12
Paris FC under 0.5 in 1st half	52.1%	55.6%	58.0%	0.96×	1.80
Paris FC over 0.5 in 1st half	47.9%	44.4%	42.0%	1.06×	2.25
Paris FC over 1.5 in 1st half	13.9%	10.9%	12.2%	0.89×	9.17

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC scores more in 2nd half	39.6%	37.4%	34.5%	1.08×	2.67
Paris FC scores equally in both	35.5%	37.3%	41.0%	0.91×	2.68
Paris FC scores more in 1st half	24.9%	22.2%	24.6%	0.90×	4.51

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre (away no bet)	57.5%	57.4%	67.2%	0.85×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	42.5%	42.6%	32.8%	1.30×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC even goals	52.2%	52.6%	55.8%	0.94×	1.90
Paris FC odd goals	47.8%	47.4%	44.2%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.8%	82.9%	82.6%	1.00×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.2%	17.1%	17.4%	0.98×	5.86

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.5%	68.4%	65.9%	1.04×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.5%	31.6%	34.1%	0.93×	3.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.9%	55.3%	60.6%	0.91×	1.81
Paris FC to score 2+ in a row	36.8%	36.6%	28.1%	1.30×	2.73
Auxerre to score 2+ in a row	29.7%	25.2%	38.6%	0.65×	3.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.4%	19.6%	22.3%	0.88×	5.10
Paris FC to score 3+ in a row	12.9%	12.1%	9.2%	1.32×	8.30
Auxerre to score 3+ in a row	8.9%	5.6%	13.7%	0.41×	17.84

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre corners (+3.5)	82.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Paris FC corners (+3.5)	77.9%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Auxerre corners (+2.5)	75.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Paris FC corners (+2.5)	70.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Auxerre corners (+1.5)	67.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Paris FC corners (+1.5)	61.4%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Auxerre corners (-1.5)	38.6%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Paris FC corners (-1.5)	32.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Auxerre corners (-2.5)	29.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Paris FC corners (-2.5)	24.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Auxerre corners (-3.5)	22.1%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Paris FC corners (-3.5)	17.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.94

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	36.4%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	35.9%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
9-11 corners	27.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	73.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	71.3%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	64.1%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	63.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	54.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	54.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	45.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	45.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 11.5 corners	36.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	35.9%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	28.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	26.7%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.5%	11.5%	9.9%	1.16×	8.72
0-1	8.5%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.51
1-2	8.9%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.51
0-2	6.6%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.51
1-0	7.4%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
2-1	7.8%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
0-0	5.4%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.51
2-2	6.0%	7.4%	5.2%	1.43×	13.51
2-0	5.0%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.29
0-3	3.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.30
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
1-3	4.6%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.29
1-4	1.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
2-3	3.1%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.30
2-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.31
3-0	2.3%	1.7%	3.5%	0.48×	58.31
3-1	3.5%	1.7%	6.0%	0.28×	58.30
3-2	2.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.30
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.32
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.31
4-1	1.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
4-2	0.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.4%	3.88×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.81×	58.32
Any other score	3.4%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC (2nd half DNB)	54.4%	53.0%	39.2%	1.35×	1.89
Auxerre (2nd half DNB)	45.6%	47.0%	60.8%	0.77×	2.13

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC leading at HT (DNB)	55.4%	56.9%	45.8%	1.24×	1.76
Auxerre leading at HT (DNB)	44.6%	43.1%	54.2%	0.80×	2.32

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre or Paris FC (12)	75.4%	75.5%	77.4%	0.98×	1.32
Paris FC or draw (X2)	66.8%	69.6%	53.8%	1.29×	1.44
Auxerre or draw (1X)	57.8%	57.1%	68.6%	0.83×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC or draw at HT	74.1%	75.0%	66.5%	1.13×	1.33
Auxerre or draw at HT	67.8%	67.1%	71.7%	0.94×	1.49
Auxerre or Paris FC at HT	58.2%	57.2%	61.7%	0.93×	1.75

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC or draw (1UP)	66.8%	76.2%	61.6%	1.24×	1.31
Auxerre or draw (1UP)	57.8%	63.1%	73.1%	0.86×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC or draw in 2nd half	69.8%	65.7%	58.1%	1.13×	1.52
Auxerre or Paris FC in 2nd half	66.1%	65.6%	68.7%	0.96×	1.52
Auxerre or draw in 2nd half	64.1%	64.0%	73.0%	0.88×	1.56

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.5%	61.5%	56.9%	1.08×	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.5%	38.5%	43.1%	0.89×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC (DNB)	56.0%	58.0%	40.5%	1.43×	1.72
Auxerre (DNB)	44.0%	42.0%	59.5%	0.71×	2.38

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC to score first	50.6%	53.2%	43.4%	1.23×	1.88
Auxerre to score first	44.0%	41.8%	50.4%	0.83×	2.39
No goal scored	5.4%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.53

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.6%	55.0%	54.7%	1.01×	1.82
Not both teams to score	41.4%	45.0%	45.3%	0.99×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.1%	44.3%	45.0%	0.99×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	32.9%	34.5%	35.3%	0.98×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	11.5%	12.4%	9.9%	1.25×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	8.6%	8.3%	10.2%	0.81×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.9%	82.6%	84.5%	0.98×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	18.1%	17.4%	15.5%	1.12×	5.74

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.1%	67.4%	69.5%	0.97×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.9%	32.6%	30.5%	1.07×	3.07

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.5%	54.8%	57.2%	0.96×	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	26.2%	27.1%	24.2%	1.12×	3.69
Both score 1st half only	13.6%	10.8%	12.4%	0.87×	9.29
Both score in both halves	6.7%	6.8%	6.5%	1.05×	14.73

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.7%	81.1%	81.3%	1.00×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.3%	18.9%	18.7%	1.01×	5.29

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.3%	57.3%	59.7%	0.96×	1.75
A half without a goal	42.7%	42.7%	40.3%	1.06×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.4%	47.2%	43.4%	1.09×	2.12
4-6 goals	30.4%	30.7%	30.8%	1.00×	3.26
0-1 goals	21.3%	22.9%	22.4%	1.02×	4.37
7+ goals	2.9%	1.8%	3.7%	0.50×	54.21

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC to score exactly 1	32.8%	33.8%	33.5%	1.01×	2.96
Paris FC to score exactly 2	25.6%	27.4%	21.5%	1.27×	3.66
Paris FC to score exactly 0	21.1%	22.3%	29.8%	0.75×	4.49
Paris FC to score 3+	20.6%	22.3%	15.5%	1.44×	4.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre to score exactly 1	35.0%	32.6%	31.9%	1.02×	3.07
Auxerre to score exactly 0	25.8%	26.5%	21.8%	1.22×	3.77
Auxerre to score exactly 2	23.7%	23.3%	24.0%	0.97×	4.29
Auxerre to score 3+	15.6%	18.8%	22.6%	0.83×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.8%	42.8%	38.3%	1.12×	2.33
Paris FC leading at HT	32.2%	32.9%	28.3%	1.16×	3.04
Auxerre leading at HT	25.9%	25.0%	33.5%	0.75×	3.99

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC -1: 1	57.8%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Paris FC -1: X	21.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Paris FC -1: 2	21.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC (0:1)	66.8%	65.2%	53.8%	1.21×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	18.4%	17.8%	21.8%	0.82×	5.61
Auxerre (0:1)	14.8%	13.7%	24.5%	0.56×	7.28

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC (0:2)	85.2%	87.1%	75.5%	1.15×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.6%	7.7%	14.7%	0.52×	13.02
Auxerre (0:2)	5.2%	7.7%	9.9%	0.77×	13.06

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC (0:3)	94.8%	92.7%	90.1%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	5.9%	0.40×	42.05
Auxerre (0:3)	1.5%	2.4%	4.1%	0.57×	42.14

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC (0:4)	98.5%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	2.8%	0.44×	81.98
Auxerre (0:4)	0.4%	1.2%	1.5%	0.83×	82.06

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre (1:0)	57.8%	58.3%	68.6%	0.85×	1.71
Draw (1:0)	21.2%	21.7%	14.7%	1.47×	4.61
Paris FC (1:0)	21.1%	21.7%	16.8%	1.29×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre (2:0)	78.9%	80.5%	83.2%	0.97×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.6%	10.3%	9.9%	1.04×	9.72
Paris FC (2:0)	8.4%	6.4%	7.1%	0.90×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.2%	48.8%	48.2%	1.01×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	27.0%	26.2%	26.0%	1.01×	3.81
Halves equal	23.9%	24.5%	26.0%	0.94×	4.09

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre to concede	78.9%	76.1%	70.2%	1.08×	1.31
Auxerre clean sheet	21.1%	23.9%	29.8%	0.80×	4.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre clean sheet in 1st half	52.1%	55.6%	58.0%	0.96×	1.80
Auxerre to concede in 1st half	47.9%	44.4%	42.0%	1.06×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre to concede in 2nd half	59.6%	55.1%	50.3%	1.10×	1.82
Auxerre clean sheet in 2nd half	40.4%	44.9%	49.7%	0.90×	2.23

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre over 2.5 corners	82.5%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Auxerre over 3.5 corners	69.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Auxerre under 6.5 corners	68.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Auxerre under 5.5 corners	57.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Auxerre over 4.5 corners	56.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Auxerre under 4.5 corners	44.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Auxerre over 5.5 corners	42.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Auxerre over 6.5 corners	31.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Auxerre under 3.5 corners	30.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Auxerre under 2.5 corners	17.5%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre under 3.5 goals	95.1%	96.4%	91.6%	1.05×	1.04
Auxerre under 2.5 goals	84.4%	82.2%	77.4%	1.06×	1.22
Auxerre over 0.5 goals	74.2%	74.3%	78.2%	0.95×	1.35
Auxerre under 1.5 goals	60.8%	63.6%	53.5%	1.19×	1.57
Auxerre over 1.5 goals	39.2%	36.4%	46.5%	0.78×	2.75
Auxerre under 0.5 goals	25.8%	25.7%	21.8%	1.18×	3.89
Auxerre over 2.5 goals	15.6%	17.8%	22.6%	0.79×	5.62
Auxerre over 3.5 goals	4.9%	3.6%	8.4%	0.43×	27.45

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre under 1.5 in 1st half	89.4%	90.3%	87.2%	1.04×	1.11
Auxerre under 0.5 in 1st half	57.6%	56.8%	51.8%	1.10×	1.76
Auxerre over 0.5 in 1st half	42.4%	43.2%	48.2%	0.90×	2.31
Auxerre over 1.5 in 1st half	10.6%	9.7%	12.8%	0.75×	10.35

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre scores equally in both	38.6%	37.8%	36.6%	1.03×	2.65
Auxerre scores more in 2nd half	38.3%	37.7%	40.9%	0.92×	2.65
Auxerre scores more in 1st half	23.1%	21.3%	22.7%	0.94×	4.70

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC (home no bet)	63.2%	60.0%	58.2%	1.03×	1.67
Draw (home no bet)	36.8%	40.0%	41.8%	0.96×	2.50

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre even goals	53.3%	50.7%	51.8%	0.98×	1.97
Auxerre odd goals	46.7%	49.3%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.0%	33.0%	28.5%	1.16×	3.03
HT 0-1	19.6%	18.7%	16.8%	1.11×	5.36
HT 1-0	16.6%	18.6%	21.5%	0.86×	5.37
HT 1-1	10.8%	11.0%	9.4%	1.16×	9.13
HT 0-2	6.4%	6.9%	5.2%	1.34×	14.49
HT 2-0	4.6%	2.4%	6.8%	0.35×	42.00
Any other HT score	4.7%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	41.99
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	42.07
HT 2-1	3.0%	2.4%	3.2%	0.73×	42.10
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	0.7%	3.21×	42.23

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC at HT / Paris FC at FT	24.5%	21.7%	18.9%	1.15×	4.61
Auxerre at HT / Auxerre at FT	18.2%	16.8%	27.7%	0.60×	5.97
Draw at HT / Paris FC at FT	15.0%	16.7%	10.9%	1.53×	5.98
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.2%	12.7%	12.7%	1.00×	7.89
Draw at HT / Auxerre at FT	12.6%	12.7%	15.0%	0.84×	7.90
Paris FC at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	6.0%	0.99×	16.67
Auxerre at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	4.1%	1.45×	16.68
Auxerre at HT / Paris FC at FT	2.7%	3.5%	1.9%	1.82×	28.69
Paris FC at HT / Auxerre at FT	2.4%	3.5%	3.7%	0.94×	28.70

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC to score last	50.6%	52.0%	40.9%	1.27×	1.92
Auxerre to score last	44.0%	40.1%	52.9%	0.76×	2.49
No goal scored	5.4%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.53

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.6%	92.7%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Paris FC to lead by 1 at any time	59.2%	54.9%	48.9%	1.12×	1.82
Auxerre to lead by 1 at any time	51.5%	50.8%	59.1%	0.86×	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	48.9%	44.6%	51.6%	0.86×	2.24
Paris FC to lead by 2 at any time	28.0%	25.5%	21.7%	1.18×	3.92
Auxerre to lead by 2 at any time	21.2%	19.6%	30.0%	0.65×	5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.8%	14.9%	19.8%	0.75×	6.69
Paris FC to lead by 3 at any time	10.7%	10.4%	8.3%	1.26×	9.59
Auxerre to lead by 3 at any time	7.1%	6.7%	11.7%	0.57×	14.93

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre most corners	48.4%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Paris FC most corners	41.7%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	9.9%	8.4%	—	—	11.96

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.0%	87.4%	85.3%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.6%	78.7%	76.8%	1.02×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.8%	78.7%	74.0%	1.06×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.2%	72.4%	69.2%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	60.8%	1.04×	1.58
1-3 goals	61.3%	63.3%	59.4%	1.07×	1.58
3-6 goals	52.7%	53.2%	51.5%	1.03×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.1%	48.5%	46.6%	1.04×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.4%	48.5%	43.4%	1.12×	2.06
1-2 goals	38.9%	39.2%	38.8%	1.01×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.7%	39.2%	38.2%	1.03×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.4%	35.2%	30.8%	1.14×	2.84
4-5 goals	25.8%	30.2%	26.0%	1.16×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.1%	14.8%	13.4%	1.10×	6.75
7+ goals	2.9%	2.6%	3.7%	0.69×	39.09

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC never behind	43.0%	48.5%	40.9%	1.19×	2.06
Auxerre never behind	35.3%	43.9%	51.1%	0.86×	2.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	47.8%	1.07×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	52.2%	0.94×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.5%	51.6%	51.5%	1.00×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.5%	48.4%	48.5%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.6%	51.9%	50.1%	1.04×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.4%	48.1%	49.9%	0.96×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.6%	92.3%	93.7%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.5%	92.3%	91.4%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.0%	82.3%	83.0%	0.99×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	78.7%	77.3%	77.6%	1.00×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	66.7%	66.3%	65.6%	1.01×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	55.7%	58.6%	55.0%	1.07×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	44.3%	41.4%	45.0%	0.92×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	33.3%	33.7%	34.4%	0.98×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	21.3%	22.7%	22.4%	1.01×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	17.0%	17.7%	17.0%	1.04×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	7.5%	7.7%	8.6%	0.90×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	5.4%	7.7%	6.3%	1.22×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.9%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.7%	92.4%	90.7%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.7%	75.9%	79.5%	0.96×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	72.3%	72.4%	71.0%	1.02×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.1%	55.8%	56.7%	0.98×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.9%	44.2%	43.3%	1.02×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.7%	27.6%	29.0%	0.95×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.3%	24.1%	20.5%	1.17×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.3%	7.6%	9.3%	0.81×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.1%	2.8%	3.9%	0.73×	35.57

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.9%	89.2%	87.5%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.0%	68.6%	71.5%	0.96×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	66.1%	68.5%	66.5%	1.03×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	33.9%	31.5%	33.5%	0.94×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.0%	31.4%	28.5%	1.10×	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.1%	10.8%	12.5%	0.86×	9.25

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	83.2%	81.9%	1.02×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	75.5%	79.1%	75.4%	1.05×	1.27
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	50.9%	52.9%	49.9%	1.06×	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	49.1%	47.1%	50.1%	0.94×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	24.5%	20.9%	24.6%	0.85×	4.78
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	16.8%	18.1%	0.93×	5.96

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre not to score in both halves	76.6%	78.5%	67.8%	1.16×	1.27
Paris FC not to score in both halves	71.5%	73.8%	77.9%	0.95×	1.35
Paris FC to score in both halves	28.5%	26.2%	22.1%	1.18×	3.82
Auxerre to score in both halves	23.4%	21.5%	32.2%	0.67×	4.64

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	58.6%	58.7%	54.7%	1.07×	1.71
Only Paris FC scores	20.4%	22.2%	15.6%	1.42×	4.50
Only Auxerre scores	15.6%	16.0%	23.6%	0.68×	6.25
Neither team scores	5.4%	7.1%	6.3%	1.12×	14.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.1%	22.6%	22.7%	0.99×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	20.8%	1.09×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.3%	17.5%	17.6%	0.99×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.8%	17.5%	16.2%	1.08×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.5%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.13
6 or more goals	7.5%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	5.4%	7.6%	6.3%	1.20×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.1%	37.3%	38.2%	0.98×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	30.0%	35.7%	28.5%	1.26×	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	21.7%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	12.1%	10.7%	12.5%	0.86×	9.32

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	50.9%	51.1%	49.9%	1.02×	1.96
1 goal in 2nd half	31.0%	33.8%	32.2%	1.05×	2.96
No goals in 2nd half	18.1%	16.5%	18.1%	0.91×	6.07

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre not to win both halves	92.2%	94.1%	83.6%	1.13×	1.06
Paris FC not to win both halves	88.4%	88.0%	90.7%	0.97×	1.14
Paris FC to win both halves	11.6%	12.0%	9.3%	1.29×	8.33
Auxerre to win both halves	7.8%	5.9%	16.4%	0.36×	16.96

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris FC to win either half	56.6%	59.1%	46.0%	1.28×	1.69
Auxerre to win neither half	51.7%	54.2%	41.0%	1.32×	1.84
Auxerre to win either half	48.3%	45.8%	59.0%	0.78×	2.19
Paris FC to win neither half	43.4%	40.9%	54.0%	0.76×	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Auxerre not to win to nil	84.4%	83.1%	76.4%	1.09×	1.20
Paris FC not to win to nil	79.6%	78.2%	84.4%	0.93×	1.28
Paris FC to win to nil	20.4%	21.8%	15.6%	1.40×	4.58
Auxerre to win to nil	15.6%	16.9%	23.6%	0.72×	5.92

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.6%	24.1%	22.6%	1.07×	4.15
Paris FC by 1	21.2%	24.1%	14.7%	1.63×	4.15
Auxerre by 1	18.4%	17.0%	21.8%	0.78×	5.87
Paris FC by 2	12.6%	11.8%	9.9%	1.19×	8.51
Auxerre by 2	9.6%	7.2%	14.7%	0.49×	13.90
Paris FC by 3+	8.4%	7.2%	7.1%	1.02×	13.90
Auxerre by 3+	5.2%	7.2%	9.9%	0.73×	13.92