Auxerre v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 13
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 8
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 0.25
Goals − xG
-1.03 – -1.36
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Auxerre win
29.8%
Draw
27.2%
Strasbourg win
43.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 5.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWLDWWLWW last 10
scored 23
from 17.3 xG
conceded 21
from 20.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.02–1.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.17–1.41 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Auxerre 1.03 xGStrasbourg 1.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Auxerre attacking right
Strasbourg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Strasbourg |
Ben Chilwell | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
Strasbourg |
Ben Chilwell | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martial Godo |
| 13' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
 Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Auxerre |
Marvin Senaya | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 21' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 33' |
Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 39' |
Strasbourg |
Guemissongui Ouattara | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | David Datro Fofana |
| 45' |
Strasbourg |
David Datro Fofana | 0.22 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 47' |
Auxerre |
Fredrik Oppegård | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Guemissongui Ouattara |
| 49' |
Strasbourg |
David Datro Fofana | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 67' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 69' |
Strasbourg |
Sebastian Nanasi | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 69' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 81' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kévin Danois |
| 83' |
Auxerre |
Naouirou Ahamada | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elisha Owusu |
| 84' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 89' |
Auxerre |
Fredrik Oppegård | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Danny Namaso |
Players
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Namaso FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.60 | 0.03 | 0.58 |
| Fredrik Oppegård ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.44 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elisha Owusu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Bryan Okoh DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Josué Casimir MR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Marvin Senaya DR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Naouirou Ahamada Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lamine Sy Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Enciso AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.42 |
| Andrew Omobamidele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ismaël Doukouré DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Samir El Mourabet DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.33 |
| Ben Chilwell DL | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Martial Godo AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.29 |
| David Datro Fofana FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.03 | 0.24 |
| Gessime Yassine AMR | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Joaquín Panichelli Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Sebastian Nanasi Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Valentín Barco Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.62 |
| Maxi Oyedele Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |