AZ Alkmaar v NEC Nijmegen — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 December 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

AZ Alkmaar

20:00 UTC

NEC Nijmegen

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 26 Oct, 10:59 · 1,137h before kick-off

AZ Alkmaar win

49.2%

model 47.9%

Draw

23.0%

model 24.3%

NEC Nijmegen win

27.7%

model 27.8%

492328

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.7%
2-1 9.2%
1-2 6.9%
2-2 6.6%
2-0 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	64.9%	Under 2.5	35.1%
BTTS yes	65.9%	BTTS no	34.1%
AZ Alkmaar 1+	85.3%	AZ Alkmaar 2+	57.0%
NEC Nijmegen 1+	76.0%	NEC Nijmegen 2+	41.8%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.43. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

77/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

AZ Alkmaar or draw (1X)

Double chance · usually 70%

72.6% fair odds 1.38

moderate signal · 1941 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

84.1% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 385 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

AZ Alkmaar have an estimated 49.2% win probability, against 27.7% for NEC Nijmegen and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.91 for AZ Alkmaar and 1.43 for NEC Nijmegen.

Why AZ Alkmaar

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why NEC Nijmegen can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for AZ Alkmaar, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for NEC Nijmegen, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

AZ Alkmaar: 59% possession, 20.8 shots a match, 8.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. NEC Nijmegen: 63% possession, 20.8 shots a match, 8.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-26 10:06 · team_stats 2026-10-26 06:08 · availability 2026-10-26 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

AZ Alkmaar are the model's most likely outcome at 49.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.7%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	482428	1.91–1.43	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	432432	1.86–1.60	1-1 10%	67%	68%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to win	43.2%	42.9%	44.4%	0.97×	2.33
NEC Nijmegen to win	32.4%	30.4%	30.1%	1.01×	3.29
Draw	24.3%	24.5%	25.6%	0.96×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar & both teams score	27.2%	25.2%	21.2%	1.19×	3.97
NEC Nijmegen & both teams score	21.0%	21.8%	17.2%	1.27×	4.59
Draw & both teams score	20.1%	21.8%	22.2%	0.98×	4.59
AZ Alkmaar & not both score	16.1%	18.0%	23.4%	0.77×	5.57
NEC Nijmegen & not both score	11.4%	13.3%	13.1%	1.01×	7.54
Draw & not both score	4.2%	4.9%	3.5%	1.39×	20.50

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar & over 1.5	38.4%	34.9%	36.2%	0.96×	2.87
AZ Alkmaar & over 2.5	32.9%	30.8%	28.9%	1.06×	3.25
NEC Nijmegen & over 1.5	28.4%	26.1%	26.2%	1.00×	3.84
NEC Nijmegen & over 2.5	24.4%	21.6%	20.4%	1.06×	4.63
AZ Alkmaar & under 3.5	22.4%	21.6%	27.5%	0.78×	4.63
AZ Alkmaar & over 3.5	20.9%	21.6%	17.0%	1.27×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	20.1%	21.6%	22.2%	0.97×	4.63
NEC Nijmegen & under 3.5	17.7%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.6%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.6%	12.8%	15.1%	0.85×	7.79
NEC Nijmegen & over 3.5	14.8%	12.8%	10.4%	1.24×	7.79
AZ Alkmaar & under 2.5	10.3%	12.8%	15.7%	0.82×	7.79
Draw & over 2.5	9.7%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	9.7%	7.9%	10.7%	0.74×	12.63
NEC Nijmegen & under 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	9.9%	0.80×	12.63
AZ Alkmaar & under 1.5	4.8%	4.8%	8.4%	0.57×	20.81
Draw & under 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	3.5%	1.37×	20.82
NEC Nijmegen & under 1.5	4.0%	4.8%	4.1%	1.17×	20.82

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (1UP)	62.6%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
NEC Nijmegen (1UP)	53.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (2UP)	43.2%	47.1%	—	—	2.12
NEC Nijmegen (2UP)	32.4%	30.3%	—	—	3.30

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to win 2nd half	37.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
NEC Nijmegen to win 2nd half	31.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
2nd half drawn	31.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen under 1.5 in 2nd half	75.1%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
NEC Nijmegen over 0.5 in 2nd half	61.6%	60.3%	—	—	1.66
NEC Nijmegen under 0.5 in 2nd half	38.4%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
NEC Nijmegen over 1.5 in 2nd half	24.9%	20.7%	—	—	4.83

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar under 1.5 in 2nd half	71.4%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
AZ Alkmaar over 0.5 in 2nd half	65.3%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
AZ Alkmaar under 0.5 in 2nd half	34.7%	29.4%	—	—	3.41
AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 in 2nd half	28.6%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (+2.5)	89.2%	88.5%	86.8%	1.02×	1.13
NEC Nijmegen (+1.5)	75.9%	78.5%	74.7%	1.05×	1.27
AZ Alkmaar (+0.5)	67.6%	68.7%	69.9%	0.98×	1.46
NEC Nijmegen (+0.5)	56.8%	57.0%	55.6%	1.03×	1.75
AZ Alkmaar (-0.5)	43.2%	43.0%	44.4%	0.97×	2.33
NEC Nijmegen (-0.5)	32.4%	31.3%	30.1%	1.04×	3.19
AZ Alkmaar (-1.5)	24.1%	21.5%	25.3%	0.85×	4.65
AZ Alkmaar (-2.5)	10.8%	11.5%	13.2%	0.87×	8.68

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to concede	84.4%	81.5%	83.6%	0.98×	1.23
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet	15.6%	18.5%	16.4%	1.13×	5.41

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to concede in 1st half	55.0%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet in 1st half	45.0%	43.6%	—	—	2.29

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to concede in 2nd half	65.3%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet in 2nd half	34.7%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen under 6.5 corners	79.8%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
NEC Nijmegen over 2.5 corners	77.1%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
NEC Nijmegen under 5.5 corners	68.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
NEC Nijmegen over 3.5 corners	61.2%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
NEC Nijmegen under 4.5 corners	54.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
NEC Nijmegen over 4.5 corners	45.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
NEC Nijmegen under 3.5 corners	38.8%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
NEC Nijmegen over 5.5 corners	31.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
NEC Nijmegen under 2.5 corners	22.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.18
NEC Nijmegen over 6.5 corners	20.2%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen under 3.5 goals	92.2%	92.3%	94.4%	0.98×	1.08
NEC Nijmegen over 0.5 goals	79.7%	76.3%	73.2%	1.04×	1.31
NEC Nijmegen under 2.5 goals	78.4%	76.3%	84.9%	0.90×	1.31
NEC Nijmegen under 1.5 goals	52.6%	53.5%	58.1%	0.92×	1.87
NEC Nijmegen over 1.5 goals	47.4%	46.5%	41.9%	1.11×	2.15
NEC Nijmegen over 2.5 goals	21.6%	23.7%	15.1%	1.58×	4.21
NEC Nijmegen under 0.5 goals	20.3%	23.7%	26.8%	0.89×	4.21
NEC Nijmegen over 3.5 goals	7.8%	7.7%	5.6%	1.36×	13.07

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen under 1.5 in 1st half	86.5%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
NEC Nijmegen under 0.5 in 1st half	52.8%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
NEC Nijmegen over 0.5 in 1st half	47.2%	44.2%	—	—	2.26
NEC Nijmegen over 1.5 in 1st half	13.5%	10.8%	—	—	9.26

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen scores more in 2nd half	41.7%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
NEC Nijmegen scores equally in both	34.7%	33.4%	—	—	3.00
NEC Nijmegen scores more in 1st half	23.6%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (away no bet)	64.0%	61.9%	63.5%	0.98×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	36.0%	38.1%	36.5%	1.04×	2.63

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen even goals	52.1%	52.6%	57.4%	0.92×	1.90
NEC Nijmegen odd goals	47.9%	47.4%	42.6%	1.11×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	74.8%	77.5%	—	—	1.29
Both halves over 1.5 goals	25.2%	22.6%	—	—	4.44

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	77.3%	72.2%	—	—	1.39
Both halves under 1.5 goals	22.7%	27.8%	—	—	3.60

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	67.7%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
AZ Alkmaar to score 2+ in a row	44.0%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
NEC Nijmegen to score 2+ in a row	35.3%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.0%	25.0%	—	—	4.01
AZ Alkmaar to score 3+ in a row	17.2%	16.1%	—	—	6.19
NEC Nijmegen to score 3+ in a row	11.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.24

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar corners (+3.5)	90.7%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
AZ Alkmaar corners (+2.5)	85.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
AZ Alkmaar corners (+1.5)	79.1%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
NEC Nijmegen corners (+3.5)	68.3%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
NEC Nijmegen corners (+2.5)	58.9%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
AZ Alkmaar corners (-1.5)	51.2%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
NEC Nijmegen corners (+1.5)	48.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
AZ Alkmaar corners (-2.5)	41.1%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
AZ Alkmaar corners (-3.5)	31.7%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
NEC Nijmegen corners (-1.5)	20.9%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
NEC Nijmegen corners (-2.5)	14.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
NEC Nijmegen corners (-3.5)	9.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	39.4%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	31.4%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	77.7%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	69.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	68.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	60.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	58.8%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	51.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	48.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	41.2%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	39.4%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	31.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 12.5 corners	30.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Under 7.5 corners	22.3%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.4%	11.5%	11.7%	0.98×	8.72
2-1	8.7%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.51
1-2	7.5%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.51
2-2	7.0%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.51
2-0	5.5%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
3-1	5.4%	7.4%	3.7%	2.03×	13.51
Any other score	6.3%	7.4%	6.5%	1.13×	13.51
1-0	4.8%	1.7%	8.4%	0.20×	58.29
0-0	4.2%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.30
0-1	4.0%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.30
0-2	4.0%	1.7%	5.9%	0.29×	58.30
0-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.31
0-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.9%	1.88×	58.31
1-3	4.0%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.30
1-4	1.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
2-3	3.7%	1.7%	2.4%	0.70×	58.30
2-4	1.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.76×	58.31
3-0	3.4%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
3-2	4.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.29
3-3	2.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.31
3-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.31
4-0	1.6%	1.7%	1.8%	0.94×	58.31
4-1	2.5%	1.7%	3.2%	0.54×	58.31
4-2	2.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.41×	58.31
4-3	1.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.82×	58.31
4-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	11.27×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (2nd half DNB)	53.9%	54.6%	—	—	1.83
NEC Nijmegen (2nd half DNB)	46.1%	45.4%	—	—	2.21

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar leading at HT (DNB)	57.7%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
NEC Nijmegen leading at HT (DNB)	42.3%	44.4%	—	—	2.25

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar or NEC Nijmegen (12)	75.7%	75.5%	74.4%	1.01×	1.32
AZ Alkmaar or draw (1X)	67.6%	69.6%	69.9%	1.00×	1.44
NEC Nijmegen or draw (X2)	56.8%	57.1%	55.6%	1.03×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar or draw at HT	73.7%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
NEC Nijmegen or draw at HT	64.1%	61.0%	—	—	1.64
AZ Alkmaar or NEC Nijmegen at HT	62.1%	60.9%	—	—	1.64

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar or draw (1UP)	67.6%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
NEC Nijmegen or draw (1UP)	56.8%	62.9%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar or NEC Nijmegen in 2nd half	68.7%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
AZ Alkmaar or draw in 2nd half	68.3%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
NEC Nijmegen or draw in 2nd half	63.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.2%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
Neither half drawn	43.9%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (DNB)	57.1%	58.1%	59.6%	0.97×	1.72
NEC Nijmegen (DNB)	42.9%	41.9%	40.4%	1.04×	2.39

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to score first	51.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
NEC Nijmegen to score first	44.3%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
No goal scored	4.2%	4.4%	—	—	22.79

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	68.3%	58.4%	60.3%	0.97×	1.71
Not both teams to score	31.7%	41.6%	39.7%	1.05×	2.41

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	57.9%	47.5%	48.7%	0.97×	2.11
Not both score & under 2.5	22.5%	27.9%	28.8%	0.97×	3.59
Both score & under 2.5	10.4%	12.4%	11.7%	1.05×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.1%	8.3%	11.1%	0.75×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	73.7%	80.5%	80.4%	1.00×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	26.3%	19.5%	19.6%	0.99×	5.14

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	59.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	40.6%	34.2%	—	—	2.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	43.7%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Both score 2nd half only	30.2%	28.7%	—	—	3.49
Both score 1st half only	15.7%	14.9%	—	—	6.72
Both score in both halves	10.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	73.9%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	26.1%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	66.6%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
A half without a goal	33.4%	34.6%	—	—	2.89

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.6%	42.2%	46.7%	0.90×	2.37
4-6 goals	39.2%	35.1%	33.8%	1.04×	2.85
0-1 goals	13.0%	16.9%	15.7%	1.08×	5.90
7+ goals	6.2%	7.6%	4.1%	1.85×	13.15

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen to score exactly 1	32.4%	33.8%	31.5%	1.07×	2.96
NEC Nijmegen to score exactly 2	25.8%	27.4%	26.9%	1.02×	3.64
NEC Nijmegen to score 3+	21.6%	22.3%	15.1%	1.48×	4.49
NEC Nijmegen to score exactly 0	20.3%	22.3%	26.8%	0.83×	4.49

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 1	29.0%	26.6%	33.2%	0.80×	3.77
AZ Alkmaar to score 3+	28.5%	26.6%	23.7%	1.12×	3.77
AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.6%	26.9%	0.99×	3.77
AZ Alkmaar to score exactly 0	15.6%	18.8%	16.4%	1.14×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	37.9%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
AZ Alkmaar leading at HT	35.9%	39.0%	—	—	2.56
NEC Nijmegen leading at HT	26.3%	25.5%	—	—	3.93

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar -1: 2	56.8%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
AZ Alkmaar -1: 1	24.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
AZ Alkmaar -1: X	19.1%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (0:1)	56.8%	55.8%	55.6%	1.00×	1.79
AZ Alkmaar (0:1)	24.1%	24.2%	25.3%	0.96×	4.13
Draw (0:1)	19.1%	17.8%	19.3%	0.92×	5.61

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (0:2)	75.9%	79.4%	74.7%	1.06×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.3%	11.0%	12.2%	0.90×	9.10
AZ Alkmaar (0:2)	10.8%	11.0%	13.2%	0.83×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (0:3)	89.2%	90.6%	86.8%	1.04×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	6.8%	5.8%	7.8%	0.75×	17.25
AZ Alkmaar (0:3)	4.1%	2.4%	5.6%	0.42×	41.96

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (0:4)	95.9%	98.1%	94.4%	1.04×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.8%	1.2%	2.6%	0.47×	81.66
AZ Alkmaar (0:4)	1.3%	1.2%	3.2%	0.38×	81.83

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (1:0)	67.6%	70.2%	69.9%	1.00×	1.43
Draw (1:0)	16.3%	17.1%	14.8%	1.16×	5.85
NEC Nijmegen (1:0)	16.2%	17.1%	15.5%	1.10×	5.85

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar (2:0)	83.8%	84.6%	84.5%	1.00×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	9.8%	6.4%	8.8%	0.72×	15.63
NEC Nijmegen (2:0)	6.4%	6.4%	6.8%	0.93×	15.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.2%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.2%	—	—	3.81
Halves equal	23.1%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to concede	79.7%	76.1%	73.2%	1.04×	1.31
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet	20.3%	23.9%	26.8%	0.89×	4.19

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet in 1st half	52.8%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
AZ Alkmaar to concede in 1st half	47.2%	44.2%	—	—	2.26

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to concede in 2nd half	61.6%	59.7%	—	—	1.67
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet in 2nd half	38.4%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 corners	89.7%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
AZ Alkmaar over 3.5 corners	79.8%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
AZ Alkmaar over 4.5 corners	67.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
AZ Alkmaar under 6.5 corners	58.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
AZ Alkmaar over 5.5 corners	54.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
AZ Alkmaar under 5.5 corners	45.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
AZ Alkmaar over 6.5 corners	41.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
AZ Alkmaar under 4.5 corners	32.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
AZ Alkmaar under 3.5 corners	20.2%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
AZ Alkmaar under 2.5 corners	10.3%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar under 3.5 goals	88.2%	87.3%	89.2%	0.98×	1.15
AZ Alkmaar over 0.5 goals	84.4%	82.2%	83.6%	0.98×	1.22
AZ Alkmaar under 2.5 goals	71.5%	74.2%	76.3%	0.97×	1.35
AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 goals	55.4%	58.6%	50.5%	1.16×	1.71
AZ Alkmaar under 1.5 goals	44.6%	41.4%	49.5%	0.84×	2.42
AZ Alkmaar over 2.5 goals	28.5%	25.8%	23.7%	1.09×	3.88
AZ Alkmaar under 0.5 goals	15.6%	17.8%	16.4%	1.08×	5.62
AZ Alkmaar over 3.5 goals	11.8%	12.7%	10.8%	1.18×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar under 1.5 in 1st half	80.9%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
AZ Alkmaar over 0.5 in 1st half	55.0%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
AZ Alkmaar under 0.5 in 1st half	45.0%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
AZ Alkmaar over 1.5 in 1st half	19.1%	15.9%	—	—	6.28

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar scores more in 2nd half	41.1%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
AZ Alkmaar scores equally in both	31.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
AZ Alkmaar scores more in 1st half	27.1%	27.9%	—	—	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen (home no bet)	57.1%	56.4%	54.1%	1.04×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	42.9%	43.6%	45.9%	0.95×	2.29

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar even goals	51.2%	50.7%	51.0%	1.00×	1.97
AZ Alkmaar odd goals	48.8%	49.3%	49.0%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	23.9%	24.4%	—	—	4.10
HT 1-0	18.8%	18.6%	—	—	5.38
HT 0-1	15.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.08
HT 1-1	12.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 2-0	7.6%	6.9%	—	—	14.54
Any other HT score	7.3%	6.9%	—	—	14.55
HT 0-2	4.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.11
HT 2-1	4.8%	2.4%	—	—	42.10
HT 1-2	3.9%	2.4%	—	—	42.17
HT 2-2	1.5%	2.4%	—	—	42.32

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT	26.7%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
NEC Nijmegen at HT / NEC Nijmegen at FT	17.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT	13.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / NEC Nijmegen at FT	11.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
AZ Alkmaar at HT / Draw at FT	6.0%	6.1%	—	—	16.52
NEC Nijmegen at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.54
AZ Alkmaar at HT / NEC Nijmegen at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.92
NEC Nijmegen at HT / AZ Alkmaar at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to score last	51.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
NEC Nijmegen to score last	44.2%	40.1%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	4.2%	4.4%	—	—	22.79

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.8%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
AZ Alkmaar to lead by 1 at any time	62.6%	61.2%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	56.4%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
NEC Nijmegen to lead by 1 at any time	53.7%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
AZ Alkmaar to lead by 2 at any time	32.8%	29.7%	—	—	3.36
NEC Nijmegen to lead by 2 at any time	24.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	23.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
AZ Alkmaar to lead by 3 at any time	14.1%	10.6%	—	—	9.41
NEC Nijmegen to lead by 3 at any time	8.9%	6.7%	—	—	14.97

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar most corners	61.3%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
NEC Nijmegen most corners	29.2%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	9.5%	8.3%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	82.2%	83.4%	87.5%	0.95×	1.20
2-6 goals	80.8%	83.4%	80.4%	1.04×	1.20
2-5 goals	73.3%	72.3%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
1-4 goals	69.2%	68.8%	75.8%	0.91×	1.45
3-6 goals	60.9%	63.3%	55.7%	1.14×	1.58
2-4 goals	60.4%	63.3%	63.6%	1.00×	1.58
3-5 goals	53.4%	53.2%	50.7%	1.05×	1.88
1-3 goals	50.5%	53.1%	58.9%	0.90×	1.88
2-3 goals	41.6%	43.6%	46.7%	0.93×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	39.0%	1.12×	2.29
4-6 goals	39.2%	39.2%	33.8%	1.16×	2.55
4-5 goals	31.7%	35.2%	28.8%	1.22×	2.84
1-2 goals	28.7%	30.2%	37.0%	0.82×	3.31
5-6 goals	20.4%	24.4%	16.9%	1.45×	4.09
7+ goals	6.2%	8.9%	4.1%	2.16×	11.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar never behind	42.1%	48.7%	—	—	2.05
NEC Nijmegen never behind	33.2%	36.4%	—	—	2.75

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.9%	50.9%	48.9%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.1%	49.1%	51.1%	0.96×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.2%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.8%	48.2%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.6%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.4%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.8%	95.4%	96.5%	0.99×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	87.0%	87.6%	84.3%	1.04×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	86.4%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 4.5 goals	73.4%	72.5%	79.1%	0.92×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	67.1%	66.3%	59.7%	1.11×	1.51
Under 3.5 goals	54.6%	52.5%	62.3%	0.84×	1.90
Over 3.5 goals	45.4%	47.5%	37.7%	1.26×	2.11
Under 2.5 goals	32.9%	33.7%	40.3%	0.83×	2.97
Over 4.5 goals	26.6%	27.5%	20.9%	1.32×	3.63
Over 5.5 goals	13.6%	12.4%	9.1%	1.36×	8.06
Under 1.5 goals	13.0%	12.4%	15.7%	0.79×	8.07
Under 0.5 goals	4.2%	4.6%	3.5%	1.31×	21.81

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	93.3%	92.4%	95.7%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	84.3%	81.1%	89.7%	0.90×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	83.7%	81.1%	79.2%	1.02×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	67.3%	67.5%	74.9%	0.90×	1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.9%	55.8%	48.3%	1.15×	1.79
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.1%	44.2%	51.7%	0.86×	2.26
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	32.7%	32.5%	25.1%	1.30×	3.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	16.3%	18.9%	20.8%	0.91×	5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	15.7%	18.9%	10.3%	1.83×	5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	6.7%	7.6%	4.3%	1.75×	13.19

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	82.4%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.1%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	57.7%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Over 1.5 in 1st half	42.3%	35.3%	—	—	2.83
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.9%	22.0%	—	—	4.55
Over 2.5 in 1st half	17.6%	14.3%	—	—	6.99

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	86.3%	85.3%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	67.2%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	60.2%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	39.8%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	32.8%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	13.7%	14.7%	—	—	6.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen not to score in both halves	70.9%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
AZ Alkmaar not to score in both halves	64.0%	63.5%	—	—	1.58
AZ Alkmaar to score in both halves	36.0%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
NEC Nijmegen to score in both halves	29.1%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	68.3%	59.9%	60.3%	0.99×	1.67
Only AZ Alkmaar scores	16.1%	16.0%	23.4%	0.68×	6.24
Only NEC Nijmegen scores	11.4%	11.0%	13.1%	0.84×	9.07
Neither team scores	4.2%	4.6%	3.5%	1.33×	21.55

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.7%	22.6%	22.1%	1.02×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	19.9%	17.5%	24.8%	0.70×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	18.8%	17.5%	17.0%	1.02×	5.73
6 or more goals	13.6%	12.1%	9.1%	1.33×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	13.0%	12.1%	11.9%	1.02×	8.25
Exactly 1 goals	8.9%	7.6%	12.3%	0.62×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	4.2%	4.5%	3.5%	1.28×	22.34

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	33.8%	35.7%	—	—	2.80
2 goals in 1st half	24.7%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
No goals in 1st half	23.9%	21.5%	—	—	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	17.6%	15.7%	—	—	6.38

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	60.2%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	26.1%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
No goals in 2nd half	13.7%	14.5%	—	—	6.89

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen not to win both halves	91.5%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
AZ Alkmaar not to win both halves	86.5%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
AZ Alkmaar to win both halves	13.5%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
NEC Nijmegen to win both halves	8.5%	5.9%	—	—	17.05

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
AZ Alkmaar to win either half	59.4%	59.1%	—	—	1.69
NEC Nijmegen to win neither half	50.5%	54.3%	—	—	1.84
NEC Nijmegen to win either half	49.5%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
AZ Alkmaar to win neither half	40.6%	40.9%	—	—	2.45

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
NEC Nijmegen not to win to nil	88.6%	88.1%	86.9%	1.01×	1.14
AZ Alkmaar not to win to nil	83.9%	83.1%	76.6%	1.09×	1.20
AZ Alkmaar to win to nil	16.1%	16.9%	23.4%	0.72×	5.92
NEC Nijmegen to win to nil	11.4%	11.9%	13.1%	0.91×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.3%	24.1%	25.6%	0.94×	4.15
AZ Alkmaar by 1	19.1%	17.1%	19.3%	0.88×	5.86
NEC Nijmegen by 1	16.3%	17.0%	14.8%	1.15×	5.87
AZ Alkmaar by 2	13.3%	11.8%	12.2%	0.97×	8.50
AZ Alkmaar by 3+	10.8%	11.8%	13.2%	0.89×	8.51
NEC Nijmegen by 2	9.8%	7.2%	8.8%	0.82×	13.90
NEC Nijmegen by 3+	6.4%	7.2%	6.8%	1.05×	13.91