Baku Sportinq v Səbail — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 17 September 2026 · AZE-First Division · 2627

AZE-First Division results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Baku Sportinq

12:30 UTC

Səbail

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 193h before kick-off

Baku Sportinq win

33.3%

model 31.9%

Draw

33.3%

model 33.5%

Səbail win

33.3%

model 34.6%

333333

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (11,310 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-0 14.9%
1-1 14.9%
0-1 12.6%
1-0 11.9%
0-2 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	32.3%	Under 2.5	67.7%
BTTS yes	41.2%	BTTS no	58.8%
Baku Sportinq 1+	62.2%	Baku Sportinq 2+	25.5%
Səbail 1+	64.1%	Səbail 2+	27.3%

Expected goals 0.97 – 1.03. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

26/100

Data quality

30/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Under 2 (void on exactly 2)

Over/Under (whole line) · usually 33%

52.0% fair odds 1.92

strong signal · 7148 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

1-5 goals

Multi goal · usually 86%

82.1% fair odds 1.22

moderate signal · 20147 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Səbail have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Baku Sportinq have allowed 1.35.
Away from home Səbail average 1.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

Data quality is 30/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Baku Sportinq have only 0 matches on record.
Səbail have only 0 matches on record.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Səbail have an estimated 33.3% win probability, against 33.3% for the draw and 33.3% for Baku Sportinq. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.97 for Baku Sportinq and 1.02 for Səbail.

Why Baku Sportinq

Baku Sportinq have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Səbail have allowed 1.35. At home Baku Sportinq average 1.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 33.3%. A combined 2.00 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 0.97 to 1.02.

Why Səbail can win

Səbail have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Baku Sportinq have allowed 1.35. Away from home Səbail average 1.35 xG a match.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Baku Sportinq, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Səbail, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Baku Sportinq: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Səbail: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Səbail are the model's most likely outcome at 33.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-0 at 14.9%. Confidence 26/100, data quality 30/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	323335	0.97–1.03	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	273736	0.77–0.92	0-0 20%	24%	33%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail to win	34.6%	31.5%	30.6%	1.03×	3.17
Draw	33.5%	31.5%	25.0%	1.26×	3.17
Baku Sportinq to win	31.9%	31.5%	44.4%	0.71×	3.17

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail & not both score	22.9%	21.7%	16.0%	1.36×	4.61
Baku Sportinq & not both score	21.0%	21.7%	24.4%	0.89×	4.61
Draw & both teams score	18.6%	18.1%	17.7%	1.03×	5.52
Draw & not both score	14.9%	12.7%	7.3%	1.74×	7.88
Səbail & both teams score	11.7%	12.7%	14.6%	0.87×	7.88
Baku Sportinq & both teams score	10.9%	12.7%	20.1%	0.63×	7.88

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw & under 2.5	29.7%	26.4%	18.8%	1.41×	3.79
Draw & under 3.5	29.7%	26.4%	18.8%	1.41×	3.79
Səbail & under 3.5	29.0%	26.4%	21.6%	1.22×	3.79
Baku Sportinq & under 3.5	27.0%	26.4%	30.3%	0.87×	3.79
Səbail & over 1.5	22.0%	21.8%	23.1%	0.95×	4.58
Baku Sportinq & over 1.5	20.1%	21.8%	34.1%	0.64×	4.58
Səbail & under 2.5	19.7%	17.7%	12.2%	1.45×	5.64
Baku Sportinq & under 2.5	18.3%	17.7%	17.5%	1.01×	5.64
Draw & over 1.5	18.6%	17.7%	17.7%	1.00×	5.64
Baku Sportinq & over 2.5	13.6%	12.4%	26.9%	0.46×	8.05
Draw & under 1.5	14.9%	12.4%	7.3%	1.70×	8.05
Səbail & over 2.5	14.9%	12.4%	18.4%	0.68×	8.05
Baku Sportinq & under 1.5	11.9%	12.4%	10.4%	1.20×	8.06
Səbail & under 1.5	12.6%	12.4%	7.5%	1.65×	8.06
Səbail & over 3.5	5.5%	7.6%	9.0%	0.84×	13.21
Baku Sportinq & over 3.5	5.0%	4.4%	14.2%	0.31×	22.79
Draw & over 2.5	3.8%	4.4%	6.2%	0.71×	22.79
Draw & over 3.5	3.8%	4.4%	6.2%	0.71×	22.79

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (1UP)	48.2%	48.2%	50.4%	0.95×	2.08
Baku Sportinq (1UP)	45.7%	48.0%	59.8%	0.80×	2.08

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (2UP)	34.6%	35.7%	34.2%	1.04×	2.81
Baku Sportinq (2UP)	31.9%	35.5%	45.2%	0.78×	2.82

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	43.5%	41.4%	32.7%	1.27×	2.41
Səbail to win 2nd half	30.2%	32.8%	29.7%	1.10×	3.05
Baku Sportinq to win 2nd half	26.4%	28.3%	37.7%	0.75×	3.54

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail under 1.5 in 2nd half	87.3%	85.9%	82.3%	1.04×	1.16
Səbail under 0.5 in 2nd half	54.1%	50.1%	46.6%	1.08×	1.99
Səbail over 0.5 in 2nd half	45.9%	49.9%	53.4%	0.93×	2.01
Səbail over 1.5 in 2nd half	12.7%	14.1%	17.7%	0.80×	7.10

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq under 1.5 in 2nd half	89.3%	86.5%	77.4%	1.12×	1.16
Baku Sportinq under 0.5 in 2nd half	57.4%	58.5%	41.4%	1.41×	1.71
Baku Sportinq over 0.5 in 2nd half	42.6%	41.5%	58.7%	0.71×	2.41
Baku Sportinq over 1.5 in 2nd half	10.7%	13.5%	22.6%	0.60×	7.42

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (+2.5)	96.6%	96.6%	90.1%	1.07×	1.04
Səbail (+1.5)	87.7%	87.4%	77.7%	1.12×	1.14
Səbail (+0.5)	68.1%	67.9%	55.6%	1.22×	1.47
Baku Sportinq (+0.5)	65.4%	67.9%	69.4%	0.98×	1.47
Səbail (-0.5)	34.6%	32.1%	30.6%	1.05×	3.12
Baku Sportinq (-0.5)	31.9%	32.1%	44.4%	0.72×	3.12
Baku Sportinq (-1.5)	12.3%	12.6%	22.3%	0.57×	7.94
Baku Sportinq (-2.5)	3.4%	3.4%	9.9%	0.34×	29.63

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail to concede	62.3%	64.9%	76.7%	0.85×	1.54
Səbail clean sheet	37.7%	35.1%	23.3%	1.51×	2.85

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail clean sheet in 1st half	65.8%	69.1%	51.8%	1.33×	1.45
Səbail to concede in 1st half	34.2%	30.9%	48.2%	0.64×	3.24

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail clean sheet in 2nd half	57.4%	58.8%	41.4%	1.42×	1.70
Səbail to concede in 2nd half	42.6%	41.2%	58.7%	0.70×	2.43

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail under 3.5 goals	97.9%	97.3%	95.7%	1.02×	1.03
Səbail under 2.5 goals	91.5%	92.2%	87.0%	1.06×	1.09
Səbail under 1.5 goals	72.7%	71.6%	66.3%	1.08×	1.40
Səbail over 0.5 goals	64.1%	63.6%	68.3%	0.93×	1.57
Səbail under 0.5 goals	35.9%	36.4%	31.7%	1.15×	2.75
Səbail over 1.5 goals	27.3%	28.4%	33.7%	0.84×	3.52
Səbail over 2.5 goals	8.5%	7.8%	13.0%	0.61×	12.74
Səbail over 3.5 goals	2.1%	2.7%	4.3%	0.62×	37.13

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail under 1.5 in 1st half	93.6%	93.8%	89.4%	1.05×	1.07
Səbail under 0.5 in 1st half	66.4%	67.8%	59.0%	1.15×	1.48
Səbail over 0.5 in 1st half	33.6%	32.2%	41.0%	0.79×	3.11
Səbail over 1.5 in 1st half	6.4%	6.2%	10.6%	0.58×	16.26

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail scores equally in both	45.5%	45.5%	40.6%	1.12×	2.20
Səbail scores more in 2nd half	34.1%	33.4%	36.5%	0.91×	3.00
Səbail scores more in 1st half	20.4%	23.5%	22.9%	1.02×	4.26

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	51.2%	52.4%	36.0%	1.46×	1.91
Baku Sportinq (away no bet)	48.8%	47.6%	64.0%	0.74×	2.10

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail even goals	56.4%	56.4%	55.7%	1.01×	1.77
Səbail odd goals	43.6%	43.6%	44.3%	0.99×	2.29

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	93.4%	90.8%	82.7%	1.10×	1.10
Both halves over 1.5 goals	6.6%	9.2%	17.3%	0.53×	10.88

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	53.1%	53.2%	33.8%	1.57×	1.88
Not both halves under 1.5	46.9%	46.8%	66.2%	0.71×	2.14

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	40.0%	37.1%	58.6%	0.63×	2.69
Səbail to score 2+ in a row	22.2%	21.7%	28.6%	0.76×	4.60
Baku Sportinq to score 2+ in a row	20.4%	21.7%	36.9%	0.59×	4.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	10.7%	12.8%	22.9%	0.56×	7.79
Səbail to score 3+ in a row	5.8%	7.7%	9.1%	0.84×	13.00
Baku Sportinq to score 3+ in a row	5.0%	7.7%	14.2%	0.54×	13.03

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-0	14.9%	11.2%	7.3%	1.54×	8.91
1-1	14.9%	11.2%	11.5%	0.98×	8.91
0-1	12.6%	11.2%	7.5%	1.49×	8.91
1-0	11.9%	11.2%	10.4%	1.08×	8.91
0-2	7.1%	7.4%	4.7%	1.58×	13.45
1-2	6.9%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.45
2-0	6.4%	7.4%	7.2%	1.04×	13.45
2-1	6.6%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.45
0-3	2.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.34
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.35
1-3	2.4%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.34
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.69×	58.35
2-2	3.4%	1.7%	5.1%	0.34×	58.34
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.34
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.89×	58.35
3-0	2.1%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.34
3-1	2.1%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.34
3-2	1.1%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.35
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.72×	58.35
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.65×	58.35
4-0	0.5%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.35
4-1	0.5%	1.7%	1.7%	1.03×	58.35
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.87×	58.35
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.62×	58.35
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	16.16×	58.35
Any other score	0.7%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.35

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (2nd half DNB)	53.4%	51.4%	44.1%	1.17×	1.95
Baku Sportinq (2nd half DNB)	46.6%	48.6%	55.9%	0.87×	2.06

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq leading at HT (DNB)	50.7%	54.5%	56.7%	0.96×	1.84
Səbail leading at HT (DNB)	49.3%	45.6%	43.3%	1.05×	2.20

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail or draw (X2)	68.1%	68.5%	55.6%	1.23×	1.46
Baku Sportinq or Səbail (12)	66.5%	68.5%	75.0%	0.91×	1.46
Baku Sportinq or draw (1X)	65.4%	68.5%	69.4%	0.99×	1.46

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq or draw at HT	76.3%	76.8%	74.1%	1.04×	1.30
Səbail or draw at HT	75.6%	76.7%	66.2%	1.16×	1.30
Baku Sportinq or Səbail at HT	48.1%	50.7%	59.7%	0.85×	1.97

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail or draw (1UP)	68.1%	71.4%	63.9%	1.12×	1.40
Baku Sportinq or draw (1UP)	65.4%	71.2%	74.2%	0.96×	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail or draw in 2nd half	73.6%	71.7%	62.3%	1.15×	1.39
Baku Sportinq or draw in 2nd half	69.8%	67.2%	70.3%	0.96×	1.49
Baku Sportinq or Səbail in 2nd half	56.5%	58.6%	67.3%	0.87×	1.71

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	71.5%	73.2%	58.9%	1.24×	1.37
Neither half drawn	28.5%	26.8%	41.1%	0.65×	3.74

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (DNB)	52.0%	51.7%	40.8%	1.27×	1.94
Baku Sportinq (DNB)	48.0%	48.3%	59.2%	0.82×	2.07

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail to score first	43.6%	43.8%	42.9%	1.02×	2.28
Baku Sportinq to score first	41.5%	43.7%	51.2%	0.85×	2.29
No goal scored	14.9%	7.2%	5.9%	1.22×	13.92

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	58.8%	55.4%	47.6%	1.16×	1.81
Both teams to score	41.2%	44.6%	52.4%	0.85×	2.24

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	52.8%	48.5%	37.1%	1.31×	2.06
Both score & over 2.5	26.4%	31.4%	40.9%	0.77×	3.18
Both score & under 2.5	14.9%	11.9%	11.5%	1.04×	8.41
Not both score & over 2.5	5.9%	8.4%	10.6%	0.80×	11.86

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	93.0%	89.9%	86.0%	1.05×	1.11
Both teams to score 2+	7.0%	10.1%	14.0%	0.72×	9.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	80.0%	74.1%	70.2%	1.06×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	20.0%	25.9%	29.8%	0.87×	3.87

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	70.5%	64.7%	57.8%	1.12×	1.55
Both score 2nd half only	17.8%	18.4%	23.8%	0.78×	5.42
Both score 1st half only	9.5%	7.0%	12.5%	0.56×	14.36
Both score in both halves	2.3%	4.8%	6.0%	0.80×	20.75

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	88.3%	84.7%	81.5%	1.04×	1.18
Both teams to score by HT	11.7%	15.3%	18.5%	0.83×	6.55

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	60.5%	63.3%	41.1%	1.54×	1.58
A goal in each half	39.5%	36.7%	58.9%	0.62×	2.73

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.4%	46.5%	45.4%	1.02×	2.15
0-1 goals	39.3%	35.3%	25.2%	1.40×	2.83
4-6 goals	13.8%	14.9%	27.0%	0.55×	6.70
7+ goals	0.5%	2.0%	2.4%	0.83×	49.81

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
Səbail to score exactly 0	35.9%	36.0%	31.7%	1.14×	2.78
Səbail to score exactly 2	18.8%	18.2%	20.8%	0.88×	5.49
Səbail to score 3+	8.5%	8.6%	13.0%	0.66×	11.63

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq to score exactly 0	37.7%	36.6%	23.3%	1.57×	2.73
Baku Sportinq to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.6%	33.1%	1.11×	2.73
Baku Sportinq to score exactly 2	17.9%	18.1%	24.0%	0.76×	5.51
Baku Sportinq to score 3+	7.6%	8.9%	19.7%	0.45×	11.27

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	51.9%	49.3%	40.3%	1.22×	2.03
Baku Sportinq leading at HT	24.4%	23.3%	33.8%	0.69×	4.30
Səbail leading at HT	23.7%	23.2%	25.9%	0.90×	4.30

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail -1: 1	65.4%	66.9%	—	—	1.50
Səbail -1: X	20.7%	23.3%	—	—	4.29
Səbail -1: 2	13.8%	14.5%	—	—	6.89

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (0:1)	68.1%	64.6%	55.6%	1.16×	1.55
Draw (0:1)	19.6%	18.2%	22.2%	0.82×	5.49
Baku Sportinq (0:1)	12.3%	13.1%	22.3%	0.59×	7.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (0:2)	87.7%	86.7%	77.7%	1.12×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.9%	7.7%	12.3%	0.62×	12.96
Baku Sportinq (0:2)	3.4%	3.5%	9.9%	0.35×	28.48

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (0:3)	96.6%	96.7%	90.1%	1.07×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.7%	2.6%	5.9%	0.43×	39.17
Baku Sportinq (0:3)	0.8%	2.6%	4.0%	0.63×	39.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (0:4)	99.2%	97.8%	96.0%	1.02×	1.02
Baku Sportinq (0:4)	0.1%	1.4%	1.5%	0.94×	70.77
Draw (0:4)	0.6%	1.4%	2.5%	0.56×	70.75

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq (1:0)	65.4%	69.0%	69.4%	0.99×	1.45
Draw (1:0)	20.7%	22.1%	17.0%	1.30×	4.53
Səbail (1:0)	13.8%	12.6%	13.6%	0.93×	7.97

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq (2:0)	86.2%	88.0%	86.4%	1.02×	1.14
Draw (2:0)	9.8%	6.6%	8.1%	0.81×	15.10
Səbail (2:0)	4.0%	2.8%	5.4%	0.51×	35.88

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.7%	48.6%	48.6%	1.00×	2.06
Halves equal	32.2%	27.4%	25.2%	1.09×	3.65
1st half highest scoring	25.1%	26.1%	26.3%	0.99×	3.83

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq to concede	64.1%	65.0%	68.3%	0.95×	1.54
Baku Sportinq clean sheet	35.9%	35.0%	31.7%	1.10×	2.86

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq clean sheet in 1st half	66.4%	67.4%	59.0%	1.14×	1.48
Baku Sportinq to concede in 1st half	33.6%	32.6%	41.0%	0.79×	3.07

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq to concede in 2nd half	45.9%	50.3%	53.4%	0.94×	1.99
Baku Sportinq clean sheet in 2nd half	54.1%	49.7%	46.6%	1.07×	2.01

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq under 3.5 goals	98.3%	96.6%	92.4%	1.05×	1.04
Baku Sportinq under 2.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	80.3%	1.15×	1.08
Baku Sportinq under 1.5 goals	74.5%	73.1%	56.3%	1.30×	1.37
Baku Sportinq over 0.5 goals	62.3%	62.4%	76.7%	0.81×	1.60
Baku Sportinq under 0.5 goals	37.7%	37.6%	23.3%	1.62×	2.66
Baku Sportinq over 1.5 goals	25.5%	26.9%	43.7%	0.62×	3.71
Baku Sportinq over 2.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	19.7%	0.39×	13.07
Baku Sportinq over 3.5 goals	1.7%	3.4%	7.6%	0.45×	29.44

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq under 1.5 in 1st half	93.3%	93.4%	85.9%	1.09×	1.07
Baku Sportinq under 0.5 in 1st half	65.8%	69.0%	51.8%	1.33×	1.45
Baku Sportinq over 0.5 in 1st half	34.2%	31.0%	48.2%	0.64×	3.22
Baku Sportinq over 1.5 in 1st half	6.7%	6.6%	14.1%	0.47×	15.17

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq scores equally in both	47.0%	48.7%	37.1%	1.31×	2.05
Baku Sportinq scores more in 2nd half	31.1%	32.1%	38.0%	0.85×	3.11
Baku Sportinq scores more in 1st half	21.9%	23.2%	24.9%	0.93×	4.32

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail (home no bet)	50.8%	52.0%	55.1%	0.94×	1.92
Draw (home no bet)	49.2%	48.0%	44.9%	1.07×	2.08

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq even goals	57.1%	55.6%	52.8%	1.05×	1.80
Baku Sportinq odd goals	42.9%	44.4%	47.2%	0.94×	2.25

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	43.9%	38.2%	29.3%	1.30×	2.62
HT 1-0	18.1%	19.9%	20.7%	0.96×	5.03
HT 0-1	17.7%	19.9%	16.3%	1.22×	5.03
HT 1-1	7.7%	8.0%	10.2%	0.78×	12.54
HT 2-0	3.8%	2.5%	7.1%	0.35×	40.41
HT 0-2	3.7%	2.5%	4.9%	0.51×	40.42
Any other HT score	1.7%	2.5%	4.7%	0.52×	40.50
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.5%	2.8%	0.89×	40.51
HT 2-1	1.6%	2.5%	3.3%	0.75×	40.51
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.5%	0.9%	2.76×	40.57

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	23.9%	21.0%	14.1%	1.48×	4.77
Səbail at HT / Səbail at FT	17.9%	17.3%	17.4%	1.00×	5.78
Baku Sportinq at HT / Baku Sportinq at FT	17.6%	17.3%	25.8%	0.67×	5.78
Draw at HT / Səbail at FT	15.0%	12.0%	11.6%	1.04×	8.31
Draw at HT / Baku Sportinq at FT	13.0%	12.0%	14.7%	0.82×	8.32
Baku Sportinq at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.4%	5.1%	1.25×	15.51
Səbail at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.6%	5.6%	0.65×	27.51
Baku Sportinq at HT / Səbail at FT	1.7%	3.6%	3.0%	1.22×	27.59
Səbail at HT / Baku Sportinq at FT	1.3%	3.6%	2.9%	1.25×	27.60

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail to score last	43.7%	43.5%	42.7%	1.02×	2.30
Baku Sportinq to score last	41.5%	43.4%	51.4%	0.84×	2.30
No goal scored	14.9%	7.4%	5.9%	1.25×	13.58

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	85.1%	92.4%	94.1%	0.98×	1.08
Səbail to lead by 1 at any time	48.2%	46.6%	50.4%	0.92×	2.15
Baku Sportinq to lead by 1 at any time	45.7%	46.5%	59.8%	0.78×	2.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	33.5%	31.7%	48.2%	0.66×	3.15
Səbail to lead by 2 at any time	17.6%	17.6%	20.3%	0.87×	5.68
Baku Sportinq to lead by 2 at any time	15.9%	17.6%	28.2%	0.62×	5.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	9.1%	7.4%	19.5%	0.38×	13.43
Səbail to lead by 3 at any time	4.9%	2.7%	7.4%	0.36×	37.70
Baku Sportinq to lead by 3 at any time	4.2%	2.6%	12.1%	0.22×	37.86

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.5%	82.1%	86.4%	0.95×	1.22
1-4 goals	79.9%	77.9%	78.0%	1.00×	1.28
1-3 goals	70.9%	72.2%	63.3%	1.14×	1.39
2-6 goals	60.3%	62.7%	72.4%	0.87×	1.60
2-5 goals	59.1%	58.9%	68.5%	0.86×	1.70
2-4 goals	55.5%	58.9%	60.1%	0.98×	1.70
1-2 goals	52.8%	52.9%	41.2%	1.28×	1.89
2-3 goals	46.4%	47.4%	45.4%	1.04×	2.11
3-6 goals	31.9%	34.7%	49.0%	0.71×	2.88
3-5 goals	30.7%	34.7%	45.1%	0.77×	2.88
3-4 goals	27.1%	28.5%	36.8%	0.78×	3.51
4-6 goals	13.8%	13.5%	27.0%	0.50×	7.42
4-5 goals	12.6%	13.5%	23.0%	0.59×	7.42
5-6 goals	4.8%	2.3%	12.3%	0.18×	44.18
7+ goals	0.5%	2.3%	2.4%	0.93×	44.30

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Səbail never behind	39.4%	47.4%	40.2%	1.18×	2.11
Baku Sportinq never behind	37.0%	47.3%	49.6%	0.95×	2.11

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	53.6%	50.1%	49.8%	1.00×	2.00
Odd number of goals	46.4%	49.9%	50.2%	1.00×	2.00

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	60.0%	55.1%	53.7%	1.03×	1.81
Odd goals in 1st half	40.0%	44.9%	46.3%	0.97×	2.23

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.7%	51.3%	51.1%	1.00×	1.95
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.3%	48.7%	48.9%	1.00×	2.05

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.3%	96.0%	93.7%	1.03×	1.04
Under 4.5 goals	94.7%	92.3%	85.3%	1.08×	1.08
Under 3.5 goals	85.7%	87.8%	70.6%	1.24×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	85.1%	87.8%	92.7%	0.95×	1.14
Under 2.5 goals	67.7%	67.7%	48.5%	1.39×	1.48
Over 1.5 goals	60.7%	62.0%	74.8%	0.83×	1.61
Under 1.5 goals	39.3%	38.0%	25.2%	1.51×	2.63
Over 2.5 goals	32.3%	32.3%	51.5%	0.63×	3.09
Under 0.5 goals	14.9%	12.2%	7.3%	1.67×	8.21
Over 3.5 goals	14.3%	12.2%	29.4%	0.41×	8.21
Over 4.5 goals	5.3%	7.7%	14.7%	0.53×	12.91
Over 5.5 goals	1.7%	4.0%	6.3%	0.63×	25.21

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.5%	97.3%	97.5%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.3%	97.3%	93.1%	1.05×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	94.2%	92.0%	82.8%	1.11×	1.09
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	82.6%	81.5%	62.3%	1.31×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	54.9%	52.0%	32.9%	1.58×	1.92
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	45.1%	48.0%	67.1%	0.71×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	17.4%	18.5%	37.7%	0.49×	5.40
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	5.8%	8.0%	17.2%	0.46×	12.52
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.7%	2.7%	6.9%	0.39×	36.71
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.5%	2.7%	2.5%	1.08×	36.73

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	94.8%	91.9%	88.4%	1.04×	1.09
Under 1.5 in 1st half	79.6%	78.1%	66.3%	1.18×	1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	59.6%	70.7%	0.84×	1.68
Under 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	40.4%	29.3%	1.38×	2.47
Over 1.5 in 1st half	20.4%	21.9%	33.7%	0.65×	4.56
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.2%	8.1%	11.6%	0.69×	12.42

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	88.6%	85.2%	77.5%	1.10×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.5%	66.9%	82.3%	0.81×	1.49
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	66.9%	66.8%	50.2%	1.33×	1.50
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	33.1%	33.2%	49.8%	0.67×	3.01
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.5%	33.1%	17.7%	1.87×	3.03
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	11.4%	14.8%	22.5%	0.66×	6.77

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq not to score in both halves	85.4%	85.5%	70.5%	1.21×	1.17
Səbail not to score in both halves	84.6%	81.3%	77.6%	1.05×	1.23
Səbail to score in both halves	15.5%	18.7%	22.4%	0.83×	5.35
Baku Sportinq to score in both halves	14.6%	14.5%	29.5%	0.49×	6.90

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	41.2%	45.6%	52.4%	0.87×	2.19
Only Səbail scores	22.9%	21.5%	16.0%	1.35×	4.64
Only Baku Sportinq scores	21.0%	21.5%	24.4%	0.88×	4.64
Neither team scores	14.9%	11.2%	7.3%	1.53×	8.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.4%	25.0%	23.3%	1.07×	4.00
Exactly 1 goals	24.4%	22.3%	17.9%	1.24×	4.49
Exactly 3 goals	18.0%	17.6%	22.1%	0.80×	5.68
Exactly 0 goals	14.9%	12.3%	7.3%	1.68×	8.14
Exactly 4 goals	9.0%	7.8%	14.7%	0.53×	12.88
Exactly 5 goals	3.6%	4.0%	8.4%	0.48×	24.73
6 or more goals	1.7%	4.0%	6.3%	0.64×	24.75

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 1st half	43.9%	38.2%	29.3%	1.30×	2.62
1 goal in 1st half	35.7%	36.9%	37.0%	1.00×	2.71
2 goals in 1st half	15.2%	18.8%	22.2%	0.85×	5.33
3+ goals in 1st half	5.2%	8.1%	11.6%	0.69×	12.42

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	35.4%	38.7%	32.5%	1.19×	2.59
2+ goals in 2nd half	33.1%	34.3%	49.8%	0.69×	2.91
No goals in 2nd half	31.5%	34.3%	17.7%	1.94×	2.92

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq not to win both halves	93.4%	92.6%	86.8%	1.07×	1.08
Səbail not to win both halves	92.7%	92.6%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Səbail to win both halves	7.3%	7.4%	8.2%	0.90×	13.53
Baku Sportinq to win both halves	6.6%	7.4%	13.2%	0.56×	13.56

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq to win neither half	55.9%	58.1%	41.7%	1.39×	1.72
Səbail to win neither half	53.4%	53.0%	52.6%	1.01×	1.89
Səbail to win either half	46.6%	47.0%	47.4%	0.99×	2.13
Baku Sportinq to win either half	44.1%	41.9%	58.3%	0.72×	2.39

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Baku Sportinq not to win to nil	79.0%	78.4%	75.6%	1.04×	1.28
Səbail not to win to nil	77.1%	78.4%	84.0%	0.93×	1.28
Səbail to win to nil	22.9%	21.6%	16.0%	1.35×	4.63
Baku Sportinq to win to nil	21.0%	21.6%	24.4%	0.89×	4.63

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	33.5%	29.2%	25.0%	1.17×	3.42
Səbail by 1	20.7%	23.4%	17.0%	1.37×	4.27
Baku Sportinq by 1	19.6%	17.2%	22.2%	0.78×	5.80
Baku Sportinq by 2	8.9%	7.3%	12.3%	0.59×	13.77
Səbail by 2	9.8%	7.3%	8.1%	0.89×	13.76
Səbail by 3+	4.0%	3.0%	5.4%	0.55×	33.44
Baku Sportinq by 3+	3.4%	3.0%	9.9%	0.30×	33.45

Baku Sportinq v Səbail — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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