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Banfield v Atlético Tucumán — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 November 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Banfield win
39.0%
model 37.4%
Draw
30.5%
model 31.2%
Atlético Tucumán win
30.5%
model 31.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.1%
  2. 1-0 13.0%
  3. 0-0 13.0%
  4. 0-1 11.6%
  5. 2-0 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.534.7% Under 2.565.3%
BTTS yes42.5% BTTS no57.5%
Banfield 1+66.8% Banfield 2+30.2%
Atlético Tucumán 1+62.7% Atlético Tucumán 2+25.9%

Expected goals 1.10 – 0.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
24/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
99%
★ Best pick
2-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 61%
62.1% fair odds 1.61
moderate signal · 3852 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Atlético Tucumán not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.3% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 829 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Banfield.

Risk factors

  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0026 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Banfield have an estimated 39.0% win probability, against 30.5% for Atlético Tucumán and 30.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.10 for Banfield and 0.99 for Atlético Tucumán.

Why Banfield

Nothing in the data singles out Banfield.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.5%. A combined 2.09 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.10 to 0.99. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Atlético Tucumán can win

Nothing in the data singles out Atlético Tucumán.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Banfield, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Atlético Tucumán, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Banfield: 39% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Atlético Tucumán: 45% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-27 10:01 · team_stats 2026-10-27 06:03 · availability 2026-10-27 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Banfield are the model's most likely outcome at 39.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.1%. Confidence 24/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.10–0.99 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.06–0.92 0-0 14% 32% 40%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield to win 37.7% 36.3% 41.8% 0.87× 2.75
Draw 32.1% 30.4% 30.7% 0.99× 3.29
Atlético Tucumán to win 30.2% 30.4% 27.6% 1.10× 3.29
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield & not both score 25.5% 25.2% 27.7% 0.91× 3.97
Atlético Tucumán & not both score 20.2% 21.8% 17.1% 1.27× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 17.7% 18.0% 16.0% 1.13× 5.56
Draw & not both score 14.3% 13.3% 14.8% 0.89× 7.54
Banfield & both teams score 12.2% 13.3% 14.3% 0.93× 7.54
Atlético Tucumán & both teams score 10.0% 13.3% 10.6% 1.25× 7.54
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield & under 3.5 31.7% 30.7% 34.8% 0.88× 3.25
Draw & under 2.5 28.4% 26.1% 28.2% 0.93× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 28.4% 26.1% 28.2% 0.93× 3.84
Atlético Tucumán & under 3.5 25.9% 26.1% 23.5% 1.11× 3.84
Banfield & over 1.5 23.7% 21.6% 27.8% 0.78× 4.63
Banfield & under 2.5 21.8% 21.6% 23.6% 0.92× 4.63
Atlético Tucumán & over 1.5 18.2% 18.0% 17.4% 1.03× 5.56
Atlético Tucumán & under 2.5 17.9% 18.0% 14.6% 1.23× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 17.7% 18.0% 16.0% 1.13× 5.56
Banfield & over 2.5 15.9% 18.0% 18.4% 0.98× 5.56
Banfield & under 1.5 14.0% 12.8% 14.1% 0.91× 7.79
Draw & under 1.5 14.3% 12.8% 14.8% 0.87× 7.79
Atlético Tucumán & over 2.5 12.3% 12.8% 13.1% 0.98× 7.79
Atlético Tucumán & under 1.5 12.0% 12.8% 10.3% 1.25× 7.79
Banfield & over 3.5 6.0% 7.9% 7.2% 1.10× 12.63
Atlético Tucumán & over 3.5 4.3% 4.8% 4.2% 1.14× 20.82
Draw & over 2.5 3.7% 4.8% 2.6% 1.83× 20.82
Draw & over 3.5 3.7% 4.8% 2.6% 1.83× 20.82
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield (1UP) 50.6% 52.2% — — 1.91
Atlético Tucumán (1UP) 43.7% 38.7% — — 2.58
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield (2UP) 37.7% 37.3% — — 2.68
Atlético Tucumán (2UP) 30.2% 30.1% — — 3.32
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 43.2% 42.0% — — 2.38
Banfield to win 2nd half 30.1% 33.9% — — 2.95
Atlético Tucumán to win 2nd half 26.7% 26.1% — — 3.84
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán under 1.5 in 2nd half 89.3% 87.2% — — 1.15
Atlético Tucumán under 0.5 in 2nd half 57.5% 54.4% — — 1.84
Atlético Tucumán over 0.5 in 2nd half 42.5% 45.6% — — 2.19
Atlético Tucumán over 1.5 in 2nd half 10.7% 12.8% — — 7.83
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield under 1.5 in 2nd half 87.6% 88.8% — — 1.13
Banfield under 0.5 in 2nd half 54.5% 55.1% — — 1.82
Banfield over 0.5 in 2nd half 45.5% 44.9% — — 2.23
Banfield over 1.5 in 2nd half 12.4% 11.2% — — 8.94
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán (+2.5) 95.4% 96.3% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
Atlético Tucumán (+1.5) 84.7% 82.6% 82.3% 1.00× 1.21
Banfield (+0.5) 69.8% 68.7% 72.4% 0.95× 1.46
Atlético Tucumán (+0.5) 62.3% 62.9% 58.2% 1.08× 1.59
Banfield (-0.5) 37.7% 37.1% 41.8% 0.89× 2.70
Atlético Tucumán (-0.5) 30.2% 31.3% 27.6% 1.13× 3.19
Banfield (-1.5) 15.3% 17.4% 17.7% 0.99× 5.74
Banfield (-2.5) 4.6% 3.7% 5.0% 0.74× 27.04
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán to concede 65.5% 72.2% 68.2% 1.06× 1.38
Atlético Tucumán clean sheet 34.5% 27.8% 31.8% 0.87× 3.60
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán clean sheet in 1st half 63.3% 64.6% — — 1.55
Atlético Tucumán to concede in 1st half 36.7% 35.4% — — 2.83
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán clean sheet in 2nd half 54.5% 54.6% — — 1.83
Atlético Tucumán to concede in 2nd half 45.5% 45.4% — — 2.20
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán under 6.5 corners 85.5% 85.2% — — 1.17
Atlético Tucumán under 5.5 corners 75.9% 76.0% — — 1.32
Atlético Tucumán over 2.5 corners 72.0% 71.6% — — 1.40
Atlético Tucumán under 4.5 corners 62.5% 61.7% — — 1.62
Atlético Tucumán over 3.5 corners 54.2% 53.1% — — 1.88
Atlético Tucumán under 3.5 corners 45.8% 46.9% — — 2.13
Atlético Tucumán over 4.5 corners 37.5% 38.3% — — 2.61
Atlético Tucumán under 2.5 corners 28.0% 28.4% — — 3.52
Atlético Tucumán over 5.5 corners 24.1% 24.0% — — 4.17
Atlético Tucumán over 6.5 corners 14.5% 14.8% — — 6.77
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán under 3.5 goals 98.5% 97.5% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Atlético Tucumán under 2.5 goals 93.4% 92.4% 93.4% 0.99× 1.08
Atlético Tucumán under 1.5 goals 76.5% 76.2% 78.2% 0.97× 1.31
Atlético Tucumán over 0.5 goals 60.2% 63.2% 57.6% 1.10× 1.58
Atlético Tucumán under 0.5 goals 39.8% 36.8% 42.4% 0.87× 2.72
Atlético Tucumán over 1.5 goals 23.5% 23.8% 21.8% 1.09× 4.21
Atlético Tucumán over 2.5 goals 6.6% 7.6% 6.6% 1.16× 13.08
Atlético Tucumán over 3.5 goals 1.5% 2.5% 1.1% 2.20× 39.90
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán under 1.5 in 1st half 94.7% 94.0% — — 1.06
Atlético Tucumán under 0.5 in 1st half 69.2% 70.4% — — 1.42
Atlético Tucumán over 0.5 in 1st half 30.8% 29.6% — — 3.38
Atlético Tucumán over 1.5 in 1st half 5.3% 6.0% — — 16.69
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán scores equally in both 48.3% 48.3% — — 2.07
Atlético Tucumán scores more in 2nd half 32.2% 33.3% — — 3.01
Atlético Tucumán scores more in 1st half 19.5% 18.2% — — 5.50
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield (away no bet) 54.0% 51.7% 57.7% 0.90× 1.93
Draw (away no bet) 46.0% 48.3% 42.3% 1.14× 2.07
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán even goals 57.9% 56.9% 58.4% 0.98× 1.76
Atlético Tucumán odd goals 42.1% 43.1% 41.6% 1.04× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 93.5% 91.9% — — 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 6.5% 8.1% — — 12.34
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 53.8% 51.1% — — 1.96
Not both halves under 1.5 46.2% 48.9% — — 2.05
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 39.7% 36.6% — — 2.73
Banfield to score 2+ in a row 23.7% 19.5% — — 5.12
Atlético Tucumán to score 2+ in a row 18.6% 16.2% — — 6.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row 10.7% 12.1% — — 8.26
Banfield to score 3+ in a row 6.4% 5.5% — — 18.26
Atlético Tucumán to score 3+ in a row 4.3% 2.6% — — 38.35
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield corners (+3.5) 86.8% 84.5% — — 1.18
Atlético Tucumán corners (+3.5) 84.9% 79.8% — — 1.25
Banfield corners (+2.5) 79.4% 74.8% — — 1.34
Atlético Tucumán corners (+2.5) 76.9% 74.8% — — 1.34
Banfield corners (+1.5) 69.5% 65.9% — — 1.52
Atlético Tucumán corners (+1.5) 66.5% 65.9% — — 1.52
Banfield corners (-1.5) 33.5% 34.1% — — 2.93
Atlético Tucumán corners (-1.5) 30.5% 34.1% — — 2.93
Banfield corners (-2.5) 23.1% 25.2% — — 3.97
Atlético Tucumán corners (-2.5) 20.6% 25.2% — — 3.97
Banfield corners (-3.5) 15.1% 20.2% — — 4.95
Atlético Tucumán corners (-3.5) 13.2% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 56.9% 46.5% — — 2.15
9-11 corners 27.1% 31.2% — — 3.21
12+ corners 16.0% 22.5% — — 4.44
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 89.3% 83.1% — — 1.20
Under 11.5 corners 84.0% 80.7% — — 1.24
Under 10.5 corners 76.8% 76.6% — — 1.31
Under 9.5 corners 67.7% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 8.5 corners 56.9% 57.9% — — 1.73
Over 7.5 corners 55.1% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 7.5 corners 44.9% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 8.5 corners 43.1% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 32.3% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 10.5 corners 23.2% 23.4% — — 4.27
Over 11.5 corners 16.0% 19.3% — — 5.18
Over 12.5 corners 10.7% 16.9% — — 5.92
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% — — 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-0 14.3% 11.5% 14.8% 0.77× 8.71
1-0 14.0% 11.5% 14.1% 0.81× 8.71
1-1 14.1% 11.5% 13.5% 0.85× 8.71
0-1 12.0% 11.5% 10.3% 1.12× 8.71
2-0 7.8% 7.4% 9.6% 0.77× 13.51
2-1 7.2% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.51
0-2 5.8% 7.4% 4.4% 1.66× 13.51
1-2 6.2% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.51
3-1 2.5% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.30
3-2 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.31
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 15.04× 58.32
4-0 0.7% 1.7% 1.1% 1.50× 58.32
4-1 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 2.15× 58.32
4-2 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.52× 58.32
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.52× 58.32
Any other score 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.32
0-3 1.8% 1.7% 2.1% 0.84× 58.31
0-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.6% 3.01× 58.32
1-3 1.9% 1.7% 1.9% 0.88× 58.31
1-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 5.01× 58.32
2-2 3.3% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.30
2-3 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.31
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 15.04× 58.32
3-0 2.8% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield (2nd half DNB) 53.0% 54.6% — — 1.83
Atlético Tucumán (2nd half DNB) 47.0% 45.4% — — 2.20
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield leading at HT (DNB) 56.6% 55.4% — — 1.80
Atlético Tucumán leading at HT (DNB) 43.4% 44.6% — — 2.24
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield or draw (1X) 69.8% 69.6% 72.4% 0.96× 1.44
Banfield or Atlético Tucumán (12) 67.9% 69.6% 69.3% 1.00× 1.44
Atlético Tucumán or draw (X2) 62.3% 63.7% 58.2% 1.09× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield or draw at HT 79.0% 79.7% — — 1.26
Atlético Tucumán or draw at HT 72.7% 74.5% — — 1.34
Banfield or Atlético Tucumán at HT 48.3% 51.5% — — 1.94
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield or draw (1UP) 69.8% 76.6% — — 1.31
Atlético Tucumán or draw (1UP) 62.3% 71.6% — — 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield or draw in 2nd half 73.3% 73.9% — — 1.35
Atlético Tucumán or draw in 2nd half 69.9% 66.1% — — 1.51
Banfield or Atlético Tucumán in 2nd half 56.8% 58.0% — — 1.73
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 72.0% 70.5% — — 1.42
Neither half drawn 28.0% 29.5% — — 3.39
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield (DNB) 55.5% 58.0% 60.3% 0.96× 1.72
Atlético Tucumán (DNB) 44.5% 42.0% 39.7% 1.06× 2.38
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield to score first 45.9% 45.8% — — 2.19
Atlético Tucumán to score first 39.7% 32.8% — — 3.05
No goal scored 14.3% 10.4% — — 9.66
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 60.0% 55.0% 59.4% 0.93× 1.82
Both teams to score 40.0% 45.0% 40.6% 1.11× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 54.0% 47.3% 52.8% 0.90× 2.12
Both score & over 2.5 26.0% 33.3% 27.3% 1.22× 3.00
Both score & under 2.5 14.1% 12.4% 13.5% 0.92× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 6.0% 8.3% 6.7% 1.23× 12.08
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 93.2% 89.0% 94.1% 0.95× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 6.8% 11.0% 5.9% 1.85× 9.11
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 80.5% 72.3% — — 1.38
Both teams to score in 2nd half 19.5% 27.7% — — 3.62
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 71.3% 67.8% — — 1.48
Both score 2nd half only 17.3% 15.0% — — 6.68
Both score 1st half only 9.2% 6.8% — — 14.64
Both score in both halves 2.2% 4.8% — — 20.73
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 88.6% 85.1% — — 1.18
Both teams to score by HT 11.4% 14.9% — — 6.71
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 61.1% 59.3% — — 1.69
A goal in each half 38.9% 40.7% — — 2.46
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.6% 47.2% 47.3% 1.00× 2.12
0-1 goals 40.4% 42.2% 39.0% 1.08× 2.37
4-6 goals 13.6% 16.9% 13.5% 1.26× 5.90
7+ goals 0.4% 1.8% 0.5% 4.02× 54.52
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán to score exactly 0 39.8% 35.9% 42.4% 0.85× 2.78
Atlético Tucumán to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.9% 35.9% 1.00× 2.78
Atlético Tucumán to score exactly 2 16.9% 19.5% 15.3% 1.28× 5.12
Atlético Tucumán to score 3+ 6.6% 8.5% 6.6% 1.29× 11.71
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield to score exactly 1 36.7% 35.5% 36.5% 0.97× 2.81
Banfield to score exactly 0 34.5% 32.6% 31.8% 1.02× 3.07
Banfield to score exactly 2 19.5% 18.8% 21.8% 0.86× 5.32
Banfield to score 3+ 9.2% 10.4% 10.1% 1.02× 9.65
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 51.7% 48.5% — — 2.06
Banfield leading at HT 27.3% 25.5% — — 3.92
Atlético Tucumán leading at HT 21.0% 20.3% — — 4.92
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield -1: 2 62.3% 62.5% — — 1.60
Banfield -1: X 22.4% 23.5% — — 4.25
Banfield -1: 1 15.3% 17.5% — — 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán (0:1) 62.3% 61.5% 58.2% 1.06× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 22.4% 24.2% 24.3% 1.00× 4.13
Banfield (0:1) 15.3% 17.8% 17.7% 1.01× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán (0:2) 84.7% 83.0% 82.3% 1.01× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 10.6% 11.0% 12.8% 0.86× 9.11
Banfield (0:2) 4.6% 3.8% 5.0% 0.75× 26.63
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán (0:3) 95.4% 96.6% 95.0% 1.02× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.5% 2.4% 3.4% 0.70× 41.99
Banfield (0:3) 1.1% 2.4% 1.7% 1.39× 42.09
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán (0:4) 98.9% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 0.97× 81.87
Banfield (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 0.6% 2.14× 81.95
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield (1:0) 69.8% 70.2% 72.4% 0.97× 1.42
Draw (1:0) 19.3% 17.1% 18.6% 0.92× 5.84
Atlético Tucumán (1:0) 10.9% 12.7% 9.1% 1.39× 7.88
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield (2:0) 89.1% 88.5% 90.9% 0.97× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.0% 6.4% 6.3% 1.02× 15.65
Atlético Tucumán (2:0) 2.9% 2.3% 3.0% 0.77× 43.75
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 43.0% 45.3% — — 2.21
Halves equal 31.3% 31.2% — — 3.21
1st half highest scoring 25.7% 26.2% — — 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield to concede 60.2% 63.6% 57.6% 1.10× 1.57
Banfield clean sheet 39.8% 36.4% 42.4% 0.86× 2.75
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield clean sheet in 1st half 69.2% 70.8% — — 1.41
Banfield to concede in 1st half 30.8% 29.2% — — 3.42
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield clean sheet in 2nd half 57.5% 54.8% — — 1.82
Banfield to concede in 2nd half 42.5% 45.2% — — 2.21
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield under 6.5 corners 84.0% 81.0% — — 1.24
Banfield over 2.5 corners 73.8% 71.9% — — 1.39
Banfield under 5.5 corners 73.9% 71.9% — — 1.39
Banfield under 4.5 corners 60.1% 62.3% — — 1.61
Banfield over 3.5 corners 56.5% 57.5% — — 1.74
Banfield under 3.5 corners 43.5% 42.5% — — 2.35
Banfield over 4.5 corners 39.9% 37.7% — — 2.65
Banfield under 2.5 corners 26.2% 28.1% — — 3.56
Banfield over 5.5 corners 26.1% 28.1% — — 3.56
Banfield over 6.5 corners 16.0% 19.0% — — 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield under 3.5 goals 97.7% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Banfield under 2.5 goals 90.8% 92.2% 89.9% 1.03× 1.09
Banfield under 1.5 goals 71.2% 74.2% 68.2% 1.09× 1.35
Banfield over 0.5 goals 65.5% 67.9% 68.2% 1.00× 1.47
Banfield under 0.5 goals 34.5% 32.1% 31.8% 1.01× 3.12
Banfield over 1.5 goals 28.8% 25.8% 31.8% 0.81× 3.88
Banfield over 2.5 goals 9.2% 7.8% 10.1% 0.77× 12.82
Banfield over 3.5 goals 2.3% 3.6% 2.9% 1.27× 27.58
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield under 1.5 in 1st half 92.2% 94.7% — — 1.06
Banfield under 0.5 in 1st half 63.3% 64.4% — — 1.55
Banfield over 0.5 in 1st half 36.7% 35.6% — — 2.81
Banfield over 1.5 in 1st half 7.8% 5.3% — — 19.00
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield scores equally in both 44.8% 41.8% — — 2.39
Banfield scores more in 2nd half 32.5% 33.2% — — 3.01
Banfield scores more in 1st half 22.7% 21.0% — — 4.77
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 51.5% 51.4% 52.6% 0.98× 1.95
Atlético Tucumán (home no bet) 48.5% 48.6% 47.4% 1.03× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield even goals 56.0% 55.3% 55.6% 0.99× 1.81
Banfield odd goals 44.0% 44.7% 44.4% 1.01× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 43.9% 40.2% — — 2.49
HT 1-0 19.9% 18.6% — — 5.37
HT 0-1 16.0% 18.5% — — 5.40
HT 1-1 7.5% 6.9% — — 14.54
HT 2-0 4.6% 2.4% — — 42.12
HT 0-2 3.0% 2.4% — — 42.23
HT 2-1 1.7% 2.4% — — 42.31
Any other HT score 1.8% 2.4% — — 42.31
HT 1-2 1.4% 2.4% — — 42.33
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.4% — — 42.40
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 23.0% 21.6% — — 4.62
Banfield at HT / Banfield at FT 21.0% 21.6% — — 4.64
Draw at HT / Banfield at FT 15.3% 16.7% — — 5.97
Atlético Tucumán at HT / Atlético Tucumán at FT 15.3% 16.7% — — 5.97
Draw at HT / Atlético Tucumán at FT 13.5% 12.7% — — 7.89
Banfield at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% — — 28.86
Atlético Tucumán at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.5% — — 28.88
Banfield at HT / Atlético Tucumán at FT 1.5% 3.5% — — 28.98
Atlético Tucumán at HT / Banfield at FT 1.4% 3.5% — — 28.98
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield to score last 45.9% 46.3% — — 2.16
Atlético Tucumán to score last 39.7% 38.8% — — 2.58
No goal scored 14.3% 9.8% — — 10.25
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 85.7% 90.9% — — 1.10
Banfield to lead by 1 at any time 50.6% 50.6% — — 1.98
Atlético Tucumán to lead by 1 at any time 43.7% 39.2% — — 2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 33.4% 29.7% — — 3.36
Banfield to lead by 2 at any time 19.1% 14.9% — — 6.73
Atlético Tucumán to lead by 2 at any time 14.3% 10.6% — — 9.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 9.1% 6.7% — — 14.96
Banfield to lead by 3 at any time 5.5% 6.6% — — 15.13
Atlético Tucumán to lead by 3 at any time 3.6% 1.6% — — 61.78
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield most corners 45.4% 46.9% — — 2.13
Atlético Tucumán most corners 42.1% 43.5% — — 2.30
Corners level 12.5% 10.4% — — 9.58
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.1% 83.4% 84.3% 0.99× 1.20
1-4 goals 80.5% 83.4% 79.9% 1.04× 1.20
1-3 goals 71.6% 72.3% 71.5% 1.01× 1.38
2-6 goals 59.2% 59.1% 60.7% 0.97× 1.69
2-5 goals 58.0% 59.1% 60.1% 0.98× 1.69
2-4 goals 54.5% 53.2% 55.8% 0.95× 1.88
1-2 goals 53.7% 53.2% 51.4% 1.03× 1.88
2-3 goals 45.6% 48.4% 47.3% 1.02× 2.06
3-6 goals 31.5% 35.2% 33.5% 1.05× 2.84
3-5 goals 30.3% 35.2% 33.0% 1.07× 2.84
3-4 goals 26.8% 30.2% 28.6% 1.06× 3.31
4-6 goals 13.6% 14.8% 13.5% 1.10× 6.75
4-5 goals 12.4% 14.8% 12.9% 1.15× 6.76
5-6 goals 4.7% 2.6% 5.0% 0.51× 39.06
7+ goals 0.4% 2.5% 0.5% 5.59× 39.25
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Banfield never behind 41.9% 48.7% — — 2.05
Atlético Tucumán never behind 35.1% 44.1% — — 2.27
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.8% 50.9% 48.9% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.2% 49.1% 51.1% 0.96× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 59.8% 57.9% — — 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 40.2% 42.1% — — 2.38
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 55.3% 58.6% — — 1.71
Odd goals in 2nd half 44.7% 41.4% — — 2.42
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.4% 95.4% 99.0% 0.96× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 94.9% 92.3% 94.6% 0.98× 1.08
Under 3.5 goals 86.0% 87.6% 86.2% 1.02× 1.14
Over 0.5 goals 85.7% 87.6% 85.2% 1.03× 1.14
Under 2.5 goals 68.1% 66.3% 66.1% 1.00× 1.51
Over 1.5 goals 59.6% 58.7% 61.0% 0.96× 1.71
Under 1.5 goals 40.4% 41.3% 39.0% 1.06× 2.42
Over 2.5 goals 31.9% 33.7% 33.9% 0.99× 2.97
Under 0.5 goals 14.3% 12.4% 14.8% 0.84× 8.06
Over 3.5 goals 14.0% 12.4% 13.8% 0.90× 8.06
Over 4.5 goals 5.1% 7.7% 5.4% 1.44× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 1.6% 4.6% 1.0% 4.46× 21.85
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.6% 97.2% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.3% 97.2% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 94.4% 92.4% 94.1% 0.98× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 82.9% 81.1% 82.7% 0.98× 1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 55.9% 55.8% 53.5% 1.04× 1.79
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 44.1% 44.2% 46.5% 0.95× 2.26
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 17.1% 18.9% 17.3% 1.10× 5.29
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 5.6% 7.6% 5.9% 1.29× 13.20
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 1.7% 2.8% 1.1% 2.62× 35.65
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.4% 2.8% 0.5% 6.11× 35.68
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 94.9% 93.0% — — 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 79.8% 78.2% — — 1.28
Over 0.5 in 1st half 56.1% 64.6% — — 1.55
Under 0.5 in 1st half 43.9% 35.4% — — 2.82
Over 1.5 in 1st half 20.2% 21.8% — — 4.59
Over 2.5 in 1st half 5.1% 7.0% — — 14.23
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 88.8% 85.5% — — 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 68.4% 68.5% — — 1.46
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 67.5% 68.5% — — 1.46
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 32.5% 31.5% — — 3.17
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 31.6% 31.5% — — 3.18
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 11.2% 14.6% — — 6.87
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán not to score in both halves 86.9% 85.6% — — 1.17
Banfield not to score in both halves 83.3% 84.3% — — 1.19
Banfield to score in both halves 16.7% 15.7% — — 6.39
Atlético Tucumán to score in both halves 13.1% 14.4% — — 6.93
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 40.0% 46.5% 40.6% 1.15× 2.15
Only Banfield scores 25.5% 26.1% 27.7% 0.94× 3.84
Only Atlético Tucumán scores 20.2% 22.2% 17.1% 1.30× 4.50
Neither team scores 14.3% 11.0% 14.8% 0.74× 9.06
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.7% 24.9% 27.3% 0.91× 4.02
Exactly 1 goals 26.1% 24.9% 24.3% 1.02× 4.02
Exactly 3 goals 17.9% 17.5% 20.2% 0.87× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 14.3% 12.1% 14.8% 0.82× 8.25
Exactly 4 goals 8.9% 7.6% 8.6% 0.89× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 3.5% 4.5% 4.4% 1.01× 22.35
6 or more goals 1.6% 4.5% 1.0% 4.36× 22.37
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 1st half 43.9% 40.2% — — 2.49
1 goal in 1st half 36.0% 37.2% — — 2.69
2 goals in 1st half 15.0% 15.6% — — 6.41
3+ goals in 1st half 5.1% 7.0% — — 14.23
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 36.0% 39.7% — — 2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half 32.5% 33.9% — — 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 31.6% 33.9% — — 2.95
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán not to win both halves 94.3% 94.2% — — 1.06
Banfield not to win both halves 91.7% 94.1% — — 1.06
Banfield to win both halves 8.3% 5.9% — — 17.06
Atlético Tucumán to win both halves 5.7% 5.8% — — 17.25
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán to win neither half 58.0% 59.1% — — 1.69
Banfield to win neither half 50.9% 54.3% — — 1.84
Banfield to win either half 49.1% 45.7% — — 2.19
Atlético Tucumán to win either half 42.0% 40.9% — — 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Atlético Tucumán not to win to nil 79.8% 78.2% 82.9% 0.94× 1.28
Banfield not to win to nil 74.5% 75.3% 72.3% 1.04× 1.33
Banfield to win to nil 25.5% 24.7% 27.7% 0.89× 4.05
Atlético Tucumán to win to nil 20.2% 21.8% 17.1% 1.28× 4.58
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 32.1% 27.7% 30.7% 0.90× 3.61
Banfield by 1 22.4% 24.1% 24.3% 0.99× 4.15
Atlético Tucumán by 1 19.3% 17.1% 18.6% 0.92× 5.86
Banfield by 2 10.6% 11.8% 12.8% 0.92× 8.51
Atlético Tucumán by 2 8.0% 7.2% 6.3% 1.15× 13.91
Banfield by 3+ 4.6% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 36.83
Atlético Tucumán by 3+ 2.9% 2.7% 3.0% 0.91× 36.88
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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