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Barcelona v Alaves — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 2 February 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

1–0
1.19 – 0.13 xG
Shots
11 – 3
On target
4 – 0
Shots in box
7 – 2
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.80 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.20 – -0.13
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.71.01.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Robert Lewandowski 60' — goal
Barcelona 1.20 xGAlaves 0.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Raphinha 4' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Robert Lewandowski 29' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Pedri 42' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Robert Lewandowski 56' — Missed Shot (0.18 xG, From Corner)Álex Balde 56' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Lamine Yamal 60' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Lamine Yamal 60' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Robert Lewandowski 60' — Goal (0.57 xG, From Corner)Fermín López 63' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Fermín López 73' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Ferrán Torres 73' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Carlos Martín 78' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Antonio Martínez 85' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Antonio Martínez 86' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)
Barcelona attacking right Alaves attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Barcelona Raphinha 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Lamine Yamal
29' Barcelona Robert Lewandowski 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
42' Barcelona Pedri 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Raphinha
56' Barcelona Robert Lewandowski 0.18 From Corner Missed Shot Lamine Yamal
56' Barcelona Álex Balde 0.01 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
60' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Frenkie de Jong
60' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Pedri
60' Barcelona Robert Lewandowski 0.57 From Corner Left Foot Goal
63' Barcelona Fermín López 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Raphinha
73' Barcelona Fermín López 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lamine Yamal
73' Barcelona Ferrán Torres 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Pedri
78' Alaves Carlos Martín 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Hugo Novoa Ramos
85' Alaves Antonio Martínez 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
86' Alaves Antonio Martínez 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Santiago Mouriño

Players

Alaves

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ander Guevara DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Santiago Mouriño DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
Nahuel Tenaglia DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Moussa Diarra DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Manuel Sánchez DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kike García FW 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Jesús Owono GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antonio Blanco DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Jon Guridi AMC 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlos Vicente AMR 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Carlos Martín Sub 77 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Tomás Conechny AML 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antonio Martínez Sub 8 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Hugo Novoa Ramos Sub 8 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Asier Villalibre Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Barcelona

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Robert Lewandowski FW 90 1 0 3 0 0.83 0.00 0.22
Pedri MC 90 0 0 1 2 0.06 0.06 0.21
Lamine Yamal FWR 90 0 0 2 3 0.06 0.31 0.21
Wojciech Szczesny GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pau Cubarsí DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Jules Koundé DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Álex Balde DL 89 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.17
Fermín López Sub 77 0 0 2 0 0.17 0.00 0.17
Raphinha FWL 73 0 0 1 2 0.04 0.14 0.25
Marc Casadó MC 52 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Ronald Araújo DC 52 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Eric Garcia Sub 38 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Frenkie de Jong Sub 38 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.12
Ferrán Torres Sub 17 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Gavi MC 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pau Victor Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gerard Martín Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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