Barcelona v Elche — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 2 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 9
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+0.19 – +0.45
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Barcelona win
69.2%
Draw
17.8%
Elche win
13.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 3.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 40
from 36.8 xG
conceded 12
from 11.1 xG
Elche are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLLDLWDDW last 10
scored 14
from 13.2 xG
conceded 17
from 19.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.31–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.45–1.05 | 2-1 10% | 68% | 59% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Barcelona 2.81 xGElche 0.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Barcelona attacking right
Elche attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Álex Balde |
| 11' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fermín López |
| 24' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 32' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 37' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 38' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eric Garcia |
| 38' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Barcelona |
Marc Casadó | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
 Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Álvaro Núñez |
| 45' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Frenkie de Jong |
| 45' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 47' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fermín López |
| 53' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Frenkie de Jong |
| 54' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | André Silva |
| 55' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fermín López |
| 67' |
Elche |
Adrià Pedrosa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rodrigo Mendoza |
| 67' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 72' |
Elche |
Hector Fort | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | André Silva |
| 72' |
Elche |
Hector Fort | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rodrigo Mendoza |
| 76' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yago Alonso |
| 77' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 77' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hector Fort |
| 85' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 87' |
Elche |
John Donald | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Yago Alonso |
Players
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferrán Torres FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1.05 | 0.65 | 1.76 |
| Lamine Yamal AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.96 | 0.16 | 1.32 |
| Marc Casadó DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Ronald Araújo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.31 |
| Wojciech Szczesny GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Frenkie de Jong DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.78 |
| Eric Garcia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.98 |
| Marcus Rashford AML | 77 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.03 | 1.09 |
| Álex Balde DL | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.66 |
| Fermín López AMC | 69 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.78 | 0.86 |
| Dani Olmo Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Robert Lewandowski Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Gerard Martín Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Roony Bardghji Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dro Fernández Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa Mir ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Marc Aguado DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Iñaki Peña GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Álvaro Núñez DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Adrià Pedrosa DR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| André Silva FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Pedro Bigas DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| German Valera MR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Martim Neto MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Hector Fort Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Yago Alonso Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| John Donald Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |