Barcelona v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 11 April 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 10
On target
9 – 2
Shots in box
16 – 10
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.64 – 0.29
Goals − xG
+0.68 – -0.14
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Barcelona win
77.3%
Draw
14.8%
Espanyol win
7.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 3.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 40
from 36.8 xG
conceded 12
from 11.1 xG
Espanyol have scored 12 from 13.4 expected and conceded 13 from 13.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWLLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.4 xG
conceded 13
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.73–0.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.54–1.03 | 3-1 8% | 83% | 62% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Barcelona 3.32 xGEspanyol 1.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Barcelona attacking right
Espanyol attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cyril Ngonge |
| 5' |
 Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fermín López |
| 8' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.54 | From Corner | — | Goal | Lamine Yamal |
| 12' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leandro Cabrera |
| 16' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 24' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lamine Yamal |
| 30' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
Barcelona |
Eric Garcia | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 39' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 41' |
Barcelona |
Pedri | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gavi |
| 46' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eric Garcia |
| 46' |
Barcelona |
Ronald Araújo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 47' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 55' |
Espanyol |
Pol Lozano | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 58' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Casadó |
| 60' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.52 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ronald Araújo |
| 65' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Eric Garcia |
| 68' |
Barcelona |
João Cancelo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pau Cubarsí |
| 71' |
Espanyol |
Fernando Calero | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Leandro Cabrera |
| 73' |
Espanyol |
Rubén Sánchez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 76' |
Espanyol |
Fernando Calero | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 79' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pol Lozano |
| 81' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 81' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Omar El Hilali |
| 84' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedri |
| 86' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.79 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 88' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Frenkie de Jong |
Players
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal AMR | 90 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1.27 | 0.84 | 1.66 |
| Pedri DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.22 | 0.58 |
| Ronald Araújo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.52 | 0.81 |
| Eric Garcia DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.64 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Fermín López AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.03 | 0.97 |
| Ferrán Torres FW | 77 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.14 | 1.17 |
| Gavi AML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.49 |
| Álex Balde DL | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Gerard Martín DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Marc Casadó Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Marcus Rashford Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| João Cancelo Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Dani Olmo Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Frenkie de Jong Sub | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Urko Gonzalez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Pol Lozano MC | 83 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.46 | 0.60 |
| Kike García FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Edu Expósito AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Cyril Ngonge MR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Tyrhys Dolan ML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Roberto Fernández Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Rubén Sánchez Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Pere Milla Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ramón Terrats Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| Charles Pickel Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |