Barcelona v Feyenoord Rotterdam — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 9 September 2026 · EUR-Champions League · 2627

Champions League results-only Prediction generated 9 Sep 2026, 09:54 UTC

Barcelona

5–1

16:45 UTC

Feyenoord Rotterdam

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 9 Sep, 11:32 · 5h before kick-off

Barcelona win

79.6%

model 75.6%

Draw

10.2%

model 12.3%

Feyenoord Rotterdam win

10.2%

model 12.1%

801010

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (58 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

3-1 7.5%
2-1 6.6%
4-1 6.4%
3-2 5.3%
3-0 5.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	86.1%	Under 2.5	13.9%
BTTS yes	73.1%	BTTS no	26.9%
Barcelona 1+	96.7%	Barcelona 2+	85.6%
Feyenoord Rotterdam 1+	75.8%	Feyenoord Rotterdam 2+	41.4%

Expected goals 3.43 – 1.42. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

91%

★ Best pick

Over 4.5 goals

Over/Under · usually 28%

53.5% fair odds 1.87

strong signal · 1234 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Barcelona leading at HT (DNB)

DNB half time

83.3% fair odds 1.20

weak signal · 66 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Barcelona carry the stronger rating, 1848 Elo against 1689.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
At home Barcelona average 2.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

Barcelona have scored 3.60 a match from 2.45 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Barcelona have an estimated 79.6% win probability, against 10.2% for the draw and 10.2% for Feyenoord Rotterdam. Expected goals from the ensemble are 3.43 for Barcelona and 1.42 for Feyenoord Rotterdam.

Why Barcelona

Barcelona carry the stronger rating, 1848 Elo against 1689. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. At home Barcelona average 2.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 10.2%. Draws run at 16% in this competition.

Why Feyenoord Rotterdam can win

Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five. They have had 10 days' rest to Barcelona's 3.

Key players

Barcelona's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Lamine Yamal (0.88), Raphinha (0.81), Fermín López (0.49).

Availability

No lineup on record for Feyenoord Rotterdam, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Barcelona: 69% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces. Feyenoord Rotterdam: 57% possession, 23.6 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-09 09:54 ·

Barcelona are the model's most likely outcome at 79.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 3-1 at 7.5%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 3.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

LWWWWWWWWW last 10 scored 40 from 36.8 xG conceded 12 from 11.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	761212	3.43–1.42	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
ai-blend-oos	681615	2.91–1.40	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	8587	4.31–1.41	4-1 7%	92%	75%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	8587	4.28–1.40	4-1 7%	92%	74%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to win	84.6%	81.4%	50.5%	1.61×	1.23
Draw	8.3%	8.3%	15.8%	0.53×	12.00
Feyenoord Rotterdam to win	7.1%	8.3%	33.9%	0.24×	12.10

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona & both teams score	60.5%	59.3%	25.9%	2.29×	1.69
Barcelona & not both score	24.1%	21.9%	24.9%	0.88×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	8.1%	8.4%	10.9%	0.77×	11.93
Feyenoord Rotterdam & both teams score	5.9%	8.4%	18.7%	0.45×	11.94
Feyenoord Rotterdam & not both score	1.1%	4.9%	15.5%	0.32×	20.43
Draw & not both score	0.2%	4.9%	5.2%	0.94×	20.45

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona & over 1.5	83.1%	77.5%	42.2%	1.84×	1.29
Barcelona & over 2.5	80.0%	75.3%	36.0%	2.09×	1.33
Barcelona & over 3.5	71.2%	66.7%	23.8%	2.80×	1.50
Barcelona & under 3.5	13.4%	12.9%	26.9%	0.48×	7.76
Draw & over 1.5	8.1%	7.9%	10.9%	0.73×	12.65
Draw & over 2.5	6.2%	7.9%	5.4%	1.45×	12.65
Draw & over 3.5	6.2%	7.9%	5.4%	1.45×	12.65
Feyenoord Rotterdam & over 1.5	6.5%	7.9%	28.5%	0.28×	12.65
Feyenoord Rotterdam & over 2.5	6.2%	7.9%	24.1%	0.33×	12.65
Barcelona & under 2.5	4.6%	4.8%	14.8%	0.32×	20.85
Feyenoord Rotterdam & over 3.5	4.6%	4.8%	15.0%	0.32×	20.85
Feyenoord Rotterdam & under 3.5	2.5%	4.8%	19.2%	0.25×	20.87
Draw & under 2.5	2.1%	4.8%	10.6%	0.45×	20.87
Draw & under 3.5	2.1%	4.8%	10.6%	0.45×	20.87
Barcelona & under 1.5	1.5%	4.8%	8.5%	0.56×	20.87
Feyenoord Rotterdam & under 1.5	0.6%	4.8%	5.7%	0.84×	20.88
Feyenoord Rotterdam & under 2.5	0.9%	4.8%	10.1%	0.47×	20.88
Draw & under 1.5	0.2%	4.8%	5.2%	0.92×	20.88

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (1UP)	92.5%	94.3%	—	—	1.06
Feyenoord Rotterdam (1UP)	30.6%	32.5%	—	—	3.07

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (2UP)	84.6%	87.1%	—	—	1.15
Feyenoord Rotterdam (2UP)	8.6%	8.9%	—	—	11.26

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to win 2nd half	72.4%	75.3%	—	—	1.33
2nd half drawn	16.5%	18.9%	—	—	5.28
Feyenoord Rotterdam to win 2nd half	11.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.30

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam under 1.5 in 2nd half	79.2%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Feyenoord Rotterdam over 0.5 in 2nd half	57.2%	55.4%	—	—	1.80
Feyenoord Rotterdam under 0.5 in 2nd half	42.8%	44.6%	—	—	2.24
Feyenoord Rotterdam over 1.5 in 2nd half	20.8%	20.3%	—	—	4.92

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona over 0.5 in 2nd half	91.3%	93.5%	—	—	1.07
Barcelona over 1.5 in 2nd half	70.0%	73.5%	—	—	1.36
Barcelona under 1.5 in 2nd half	30.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Barcelona under 0.5 in 2nd half	8.7%	6.5%	—	—	15.40

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (+0.5)	92.9%	92.1%	66.1%	1.39×	1.09
Barcelona (-0.5)	84.6%	82.5%	50.5%	1.63×	1.21
Barcelona (-1.5)	71.2%	73.7%	31.1%	2.37×	1.36
Barcelona (-2.5)	54.6%	52.4%	18.1%	2.89×	1.91
Feyenoord Rotterdam (+2.5)	45.4%	47.6%	81.9%	0.58×	2.10
Feyenoord Rotterdam (+1.5)	28.8%	26.3%	68.9%	0.38×	3.81
Feyenoord Rotterdam (+0.5)	15.4%	17.5%	49.5%	0.35×	5.71
Feyenoord Rotterdam (-0.5)	7.1%	7.9%	33.9%	0.23×	12.60

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam to concede	98.6%	96.7%	79.5%	1.22×	1.03
Feyenoord Rotterdam clean sheet	1.4%	3.3%	20.5%	0.16×	30.56

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam to concede in 1st half	84.3%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Feyenoord Rotterdam clean sheet in 1st half	15.7%	15.8%	—	—	6.32

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam to concede in 2nd half	91.3%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
Feyenoord Rotterdam clean sheet in 2nd half	8.7%	8.3%	—	—	12.11

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam under 6.5 corners	77.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Feyenoord Rotterdam over 2.5 corners	76.6%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Feyenoord Rotterdam under 5.5 corners	66.5%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Feyenoord Rotterdam over 3.5 corners	61.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Feyenoord Rotterdam under 4.5 corners	53.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Feyenoord Rotterdam over 4.5 corners	46.6%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Feyenoord Rotterdam under 3.5 corners	38.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Feyenoord Rotterdam over 5.5 corners	33.5%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Feyenoord Rotterdam under 2.5 corners	23.4%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Feyenoord Rotterdam over 6.5 corners	23.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam under 3.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	92.2%	1.00×	1.08
Feyenoord Rotterdam under 2.5 goals	83.0%	81.4%	78.8%	1.03×	1.23
Feyenoord Rotterdam over 0.5 goals	75.7%	76.2%	70.2%	1.09×	1.31
Feyenoord Rotterdam under 1.5 goals	58.7%	59.4%	59.3%	1.00×	1.68
Feyenoord Rotterdam over 1.5 goals	41.3%	40.6%	40.7%	1.00×	2.46
Feyenoord Rotterdam under 0.5 goals	24.3%	23.8%	29.8%	0.80×	4.21
Feyenoord Rotterdam over 2.5 goals	17.0%	18.6%	21.2%	0.88×	5.36
Feyenoord Rotterdam over 3.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	7.8%	0.99×	13.02

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam under 1.5 in 1st half	88.9%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Feyenoord Rotterdam under 0.5 in 1st half	56.8%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Feyenoord Rotterdam over 0.5 in 1st half	43.2%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Feyenoord Rotterdam over 1.5 in 1st half	11.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.14

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam scores more in 2nd half	39.7%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Feyenoord Rotterdam scores equally in both	37.5%	36.4%	—	—	2.74
Feyenoord Rotterdam scores more in 1st half	22.8%	22.4%	—	—	4.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (away no bet)	91.1%	92.0%	76.2%	1.21×	1.09
Draw (away no bet)	9.0%	8.0%	23.8%	0.33×	12.53

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam even goals	53.0%	52.8%	54.4%	0.97×	1.89
Feyenoord Rotterdam odd goals	47.0%	47.2%	45.6%	1.04×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves over 1.5 goals	58.4%	54.5%	—	—	1.83
Not both halves over 1.5	41.6%	45.5%	—	—	2.20

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	95.1%	95.1%	—	—	1.05
Both halves under 1.5 goals	4.9%	4.9%	—	—	20.26

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	91.9%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Barcelona to score 2+ in a row	87.1%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row	66.9%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Barcelona to score 3+ in a row	64.1%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Feyenoord Rotterdam to score 2+ in a row	22.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.14
Feyenoord Rotterdam to score 3+ in a row	4.6%	2.6%	—	—	37.82

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona corners (+3.5)	86.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Barcelona corners (+2.5)	80.7%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Barcelona corners (+1.5)	73.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Feyenoord Rotterdam corners (+3.5)	73.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Feyenoord Rotterdam corners (+2.5)	64.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Feyenoord Rotterdam corners (+1.5)	55.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Barcelona corners (-1.5)	44.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Barcelona corners (-2.5)	35.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Barcelona corners (-3.5)	26.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Feyenoord Rotterdam corners (-1.5)	26.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Feyenoord Rotterdam corners (-2.5)	19.3%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Feyenoord Rotterdam corners (-3.5)	13.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	36.2%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
0-8 corners	36.0%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
9-11 corners	27.8%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	73.3%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	71.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	64.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	63.8%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	55.0%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	54.4%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	45.6%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	45.0%	42.1%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	36.2%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	36.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.73
Over 12.5 corners	28.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	26.7%	27.4%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	43.1%	39.2%	11.1%	3.52×	2.55
4-1	6.8%	7.4%	3.1%	2.38×	13.50
3-1	6.3%	7.4%	5.7%	1.30×	13.50
4-0	4.8%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.29
4-2	4.8%	1.7%	1.3%	1.32×	58.29
0-0	0.2%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.32
0-1	0.6%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.32
0-2	0.3%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	58.32
0-3	0.2%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.32
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.32
1-0	1.5%	1.7%	8.5%	0.20×	58.31
1-1	1.9%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.31
1-2	1.4%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.31
1-3	0.7%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.32
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.32
2-0	3.1%	1.7%	6.5%	0.26×	58.30
2-1	4.4%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.29
2-2	3.1%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.30
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	5.4%	0.32×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.65×	58.32
3-0	4.4%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.29
3-2	4.4%	1.7%	3.4%	0.51×	58.29
3-3	2.1%	1.7%	1.6%	1.10×	58.31
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.5%	3.31×	58.32
4-3	2.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.21×	58.31
4-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.5%	3.31×	58.31

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (2nd half DNB)	86.7%	86.7%	—	—	1.15
Feyenoord Rotterdam (2nd half DNB)	13.3%	13.3%	—	—	7.50

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona leading at HT (DNB)	86.6%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Feyenoord Rotterdam leading at HT (DNB)	13.4%	13.8%	—	—	7.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona or draw (1X)	92.9%	91.7%	66.1%	1.39×	1.09
Barcelona or Feyenoord Rotterdam (12)	91.7%	91.7%	84.2%	1.09×	1.09
Feyenoord Rotterdam or draw (X2)	15.4%	18.6%	49.5%	0.38×	5.37

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona or draw at HT	89.4%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Barcelona or Feyenoord Rotterdam at HT	79.0%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Feyenoord Rotterdam or draw at HT	31.6%	28.0%	—	—	3.57

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona or draw (1UP)	92.9%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
Feyenoord Rotterdam or draw (1UP)	30.6%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona or draw in 2nd half	88.9%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Barcelona or Feyenoord Rotterdam in 2nd half	83.5%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Feyenoord Rotterdam or draw in 2nd half	27.6%	24.7%	—	—	4.05

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	65.8%	69.2%	—	—	1.44
A half drawn	34.2%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (DNB)	92.3%	93.1%	59.8%	1.56×	1.07
Feyenoord Rotterdam (DNB)	7.7%	6.9%	40.2%	0.17×	14.57

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to score first	75.2%	79.4%	—	—	1.26
Feyenoord Rotterdam to score first	24.6%	23.3%	—	—	4.29
No goal scored	0.2%	4.2%	—	—	23.94

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	74.5%	62.7%	54.9%	1.14×	1.60
Not both teams to score	25.5%	37.3%	45.1%	0.83×	2.68

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	72.6%	59.7%	49.5%	1.21×	1.68
Not both score & over 2.5	19.7%	21.7%	15.8%	1.37×	4.61
Not both score & under 2.5	5.8%	8.3%	29.5%	0.28×	12.01
Both score & under 2.5	1.9%	4.6%	5.7%	0.81×	21.54

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	61.7%	69.0%	80.6%	0.86×	1.45
Both teams to score 2+	38.3%	31.0%	19.4%	1.60×	3.22

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score in 2nd half	52.2%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Not both to score in 2nd half	47.8%	46.5%	—	—	2.15

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score 2nd half only	33.2%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
Neither half both score	30.5%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
Both score in both halves	19.0%	15.7%	—	—	6.35
Both score 1st half only	17.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.39

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	63.6%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Both teams to score by HT	36.4%	37.0%	—	—	2.70

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	87.6%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
A half without a goal	12.4%	11.8%	—	—	8.50

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	48.1%	47.3%	37.3%	1.27×	2.11
7+ goals	33.9%	30.8%	6.7%	4.57×	3.25
2-3 goals	15.7%	20.3%	37.6%	0.54×	4.93
0-1 goals	2.3%	1.8%	18.9%	0.10×	54.65

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam to score exactly 1	34.4%	33.8%	29.8%	1.13×	2.96
Feyenoord Rotterdam to score exactly 0	24.3%	22.4%	29.8%	0.75×	4.47
Feyenoord Rotterdam to score exactly 2	24.3%	22.4%	19.7%	1.14×	4.47
Feyenoord Rotterdam to score 3+	17.0%	19.6%	21.2%	0.92×	5.10

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to score 3+	80.1%	80.1%	30.8%	2.60×	1.25
Barcelona to score exactly 2	12.7%	14.4%	23.8%	0.60×	6.95
Barcelona to score exactly 1	5.9%	10.3%	25.4%	0.41×	9.69
Barcelona to score exactly 0	1.4%	6.2%	20.5%	0.30×	16.24

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona leading at HT	68.4%	72.0%	—	—	1.39
Draw at HT	21.0%	20.0%	—	—	5.01
Feyenoord Rotterdam leading at HT	10.6%	11.6%	—	—	8.61

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona -1: 1	71.2%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Barcelona -1: 2	15.4%	17.4%	—	—	5.74
Barcelona -1: X	13.4%	14.0%	—	—	7.16

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (0:1)	71.2%	71.1%	31.1%	2.29×	1.41
Feyenoord Rotterdam (0:1)	15.4%	17.8%	49.5%	0.36×	5.63
Draw (0:1)	13.4%	13.8%	19.7%	0.70×	7.23

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (0:2)	54.6%	58.7%	18.1%	3.23×	1.71
Feyenoord Rotterdam (0:2)	28.8%	23.8%	68.9%	0.35×	4.20
Draw (0:2)	16.6%	15.3%	13.2%	1.15×	6.56

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam (0:3)	45.4%	48.3%	81.9%	0.59×	2.07
Barcelona (0:3)	37.5%	32.8%	9.3%	3.52×	3.05
Draw (0:3)	17.0%	16.0%	9.1%	1.76×	6.25

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam (0:4)	62.5%	68.5%	90.7%	0.76×	1.46
Barcelona (0:4)	23.0%	17.6%	3.9%	4.52×	5.69
Draw (0:4)	14.6%	9.7%	5.7%	1.70×	10.30

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (1:0)	92.9%	92.6%	66.1%	1.40×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	4.5%	3.3%	16.8%	0.19×	30.73
Feyenoord Rotterdam (1:0)	2.6%	3.2%	17.4%	0.19×	31.02

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (2:0)	97.4%	96.9%	82.6%	1.17×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	1.8%	2.3%	8.0%	0.28×	43.74
Feyenoord Rotterdam (2:0)	0.8%	2.3%	9.6%	0.24×	43.80

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	55.8%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
1st half highest scoring	28.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	16.1%	18.3%	—	—	5.46

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to concede	75.7%	76.0%	70.2%	1.08×	1.32
Barcelona clean sheet	24.3%	24.0%	29.8%	0.81×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona clean sheet in 1st half	56.8%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Barcelona to concede in 1st half	43.2%	37.5%	—	—	2.67

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to concede in 2nd half	57.2%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Barcelona clean sheet in 2nd half	42.8%	44.4%	—	—	2.25

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona over 2.5 corners	84.8%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Barcelona over 3.5 corners	73.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Barcelona under 6.5 corners	64.5%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Barcelona over 4.5 corners	60.0%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Barcelona under 5.5 corners	52.9%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Barcelona over 5.5 corners	47.1%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Barcelona under 4.5 corners	40.0%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Barcelona over 6.5 corners	35.6%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Barcelona under 3.5 corners	26.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Barcelona under 2.5 corners	15.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona over 0.5 goals	98.6%	96.3%	79.5%	1.21×	1.04
Barcelona over 1.5 goals	92.8%	92.2%	54.4%	1.70×	1.08
Barcelona over 2.5 goals	80.1%	82.1%	30.8%	2.66×	1.22
Barcelona over 3.5 goals	61.9%	63.5%	15.8%	4.02×	1.57
Barcelona under 3.5 goals	38.1%	36.5%	84.2%	0.43×	2.74
Barcelona under 2.5 goals	19.9%	17.9%	69.2%	0.26×	5.58
Barcelona under 1.5 goals	7.2%	7.8%	45.6%	0.17×	12.88
Barcelona under 0.5 goals	1.4%	3.7%	20.5%	0.18×	27.39

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona over 0.5 in 1st half	84.3%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Barcelona over 1.5 in 1st half	55.2%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Barcelona under 1.5 in 1st half	44.8%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Barcelona under 0.5 in 1st half	15.7%	15.7%	—	—	6.39

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona scores more in 2nd half	51.1%	56.1%	—	—	1.78
Barcelona scores more in 1st half	29.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Barcelona scores equally in both	19.5%	15.0%	—	—	6.67

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	54.1%	51.5%	31.8%	1.62×	1.94
Feyenoord Rotterdam (home no bet)	45.9%	48.5%	68.2%	0.71×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona even goals	50.0%	50.6%	53.4%	0.95×	1.98
Barcelona odd goals	50.0%	49.4%	46.6%	1.06×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other HT score	29.6%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
HT 1-0	16.6%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 2-0	15.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
HT 1-1	9.3%	7.1%	—	—	13.99
HT 0-0	8.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.00
HT 2-1	8.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.00
HT 0-1	5.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
HT 1-2	2.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.51
HT 2-2	2.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.52
HT 0-2	1.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.60

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona at HT / Barcelona at FT	64.7%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Draw at HT / Barcelona at FT	15.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.98
Feyenoord Rotterdam at HT / Barcelona at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.74
Feyenoord Rotterdam at HT / Feyenoord Rotterdam at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	3.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Barcelona at HT / Draw at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Feyenoord Rotterdam at HT / Draw at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
Draw at HT / Feyenoord Rotterdam at FT	2.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
Barcelona at HT / Feyenoord Rotterdam at FT	1.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.88

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to score last	74.9%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Feyenoord Rotterdam to score last	24.8%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
No goal scored	0.2%	4.2%	—	—	23.94

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	99.8%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Barcelona to lead by 1 at any time	92.5%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	85.6%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
Barcelona to lead by 2 at any time	78.8%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	62.9%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Barcelona to lead by 3 at any time	60.8%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Feyenoord Rotterdam to lead by 1 at any time	30.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Feyenoord Rotterdam to lead by 2 at any time	8.6%	6.6%	—	—	15.04
Feyenoord Rotterdam to lead by 3 at any time	2.2%	1.6%	—	—	62.22

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona most corners	54.6%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Feyenoord Rotterdam most corners	35.6%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	9.7%	8.4%	—	—	11.88

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	63.7%	63.4%	74.6%	0.85×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.4%	59.1%	58.5%	1.01×	1.69
1-5 goals	49.6%	48.6%	81.6%	0.60×	2.06
4-6 goals	48.1%	48.6%	37.3%	1.30×	2.06
2-5 goals	47.5%	48.6%	67.9%	0.72×	2.06
3-5 goals	42.2%	43.6%	51.8%	0.84×	2.30
7+ goals	33.9%	35.3%	6.7%	5.24×	2.83
5-6 goals	33.2%	35.3%	21.2%	1.66×	2.83
1-4 goals	32.6%	35.3%	67.4%	0.52×	2.83
4-5 goals	31.8%	35.3%	30.6%	1.15×	2.83
2-4 goals	30.5%	35.3%	53.6%	0.66×	2.83
3-4 goals	25.2%	30.3%	37.6%	0.81×	3.31
1-3 goals	17.8%	18.7%	51.3%	0.37×	5.34
2-3 goals	15.7%	18.7%	37.6%	0.50×	5.34
1-2 goals	7.4%	8.8%	30.1%	0.29×	11.32

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona never behind	69.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Feyenoord Rotterdam never behind	7.3%	4.2%	—	—	23.54

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	45.3%	1.12×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	54.7%	0.90×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	50.4%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	49.6%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.9%	48.0%	—	—	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	99.8%	95.5%	94.8%	1.01×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	97.7%	95.4%	81.1%	1.18×	1.05
Over 2.5 goals	92.3%	92.2%	65.0%	1.42×	1.08
Over 3.5 goals	82.0%	82.3%	43.8%	1.88×	1.22
Over 4.5 goals	67.1%	66.2%	27.7%	2.39×	1.51
Over 5.5 goals	50.1%	52.6%	13.5%	3.90×	1.90
Under 5.5 goals	49.9%	47.4%	86.5%	0.55×	2.11
Under 4.5 goals	32.9%	33.8%	72.3%	0.47×	2.96
Under 3.5 goals	18.0%	17.7%	56.2%	0.31×	5.65
Under 2.5 goals	7.7%	7.8%	35.0%	0.22×	12.87
Under 1.5 goals	2.3%	4.6%	18.9%	0.24×	21.94
Under 0.5 goals	0.2%	4.6%	5.2%	0.88×	21.98

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	97.5%	97.2%	77.5%	1.25×	1.03
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	91.5%	92.4%	55.6%	1.66×	1.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	78.8%	75.9%	33.0%	2.30×	1.32
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	60.4%	61.9%	15.7%	3.94×	1.62
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	59.5%	55.6%	92.8%	0.60×	1.80
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	40.5%	44.4%	7.2%	6.15×	2.25
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	39.6%	38.1%	84.3%	0.45×	2.62
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	21.2%	24.1%	67.0%	0.36×	4.14
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	8.5%	7.6%	44.4%	0.17×	13.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	2.5%	2.8%	22.5%	0.12×	35.85

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	91.1%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Over 1.5 in 1st half	69.5%	69.1%	—	—	1.45
Under 2.5 in 1st half	56.6%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Over 2.5 in 1st half	43.4%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
Under 1.5 in 1st half	30.5%	30.9%	—	—	3.24
Under 0.5 in 1st half	8.9%	7.4%	—	—	13.54

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	96.3%	96.4%	—	—	1.04
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	84.0%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	63.7%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	36.3%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	16.0%	17.2%	—	—	5.81
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	3.7%	3.6%	—	—	27.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to score in both halves	77.0%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Feyenoord Rotterdam not to score in both halves	75.3%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Feyenoord Rotterdam to score in both halves	24.7%	21.9%	—	—	4.58
Barcelona not to score in both halves	23.0%	21.8%	—	—	4.59

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	74.5%	66.9%	54.9%	1.22×	1.50
Only Barcelona scores	24.1%	22.3%	24.9%	0.90×	4.49
Only Feyenoord Rotterdam scores	1.1%	4.6%	15.5%	0.30×	21.56
Neither team scores	0.2%	4.6%	5.2%	0.89×	21.59

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	50.1%	50.1%	13.5%	3.72×	2.00
Exactly 5 goals	17.0%	17.4%	14.5%	1.20×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	14.8%	12.1%	16.3%	0.74×	8.27
Exactly 3 goals	10.4%	12.1%	21.5%	0.56×	8.28
Exactly 2 goals	5.3%	7.6%	16.3%	0.47×	13.09
Exactly 1 goals	2.1%	4.5%	14.0%	0.32×	22.44
Exactly 0 goals	0.2%	4.5%	5.2%	0.86×	22.47

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
3+ goals in 1st half	43.4%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
2 goals in 1st half	26.1%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
1 goal in 1st half	21.6%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
No goals in 1st half	8.9%	7.4%	—	—	13.54

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	84.0%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
1 goal in 2nd half	12.4%	14.4%	—	—	6.93
No goals in 2nd half	3.7%	3.6%	—	—	27.88

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam not to win both halves	98.8%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Barcelona to win both halves	49.5%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
Barcelona not to win both halves	50.5%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Feyenoord Rotterdam to win both halves	1.2%	2.7%	—	—	36.80

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to win either half	91.3%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Feyenoord Rotterdam to win neither half	79.4%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Feyenoord Rotterdam to win either half	20.6%	20.1%	—	—	4.99
Barcelona to win neither half	8.7%	7.3%	—	—	13.64

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Feyenoord Rotterdam not to win to nil	98.9%	96.2%	84.5%	1.14×	1.04
Barcelona not to win to nil	75.9%	78.1%	75.1%	1.04×	1.28
Barcelona to win to nil	24.1%	21.9%	24.9%	0.88×	4.56
Feyenoord Rotterdam to win to nil	1.1%	3.8%	15.5%	0.25×	26.03

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona by 3+	54.6%	47.1%	18.1%	2.60×	2.13
Barcelona by 2	16.6%	16.9%	13.2%	1.28×	5.91
Barcelona by 1	13.4%	11.8%	19.7%	0.60×	8.49
Draw	8.3%	7.2%	15.8%	0.46×	13.80
Feyenoord Rotterdam by 1	4.5%	2.7%	16.8%	0.16×	36.62
Feyenoord Rotterdam by 2	1.8%	2.7%	8.0%	0.34×	36.70
Feyenoord Rotterdam by 3+	0.8%	2.7%	9.6%	0.28×	36.73

Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.