Barcelona v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 3
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 3
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+0.04 – -0.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Barcelona win
70.1%
Draw
15.7%
Getafe win
14.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWLWLWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.5 xG
conceded 8
from 9.2 xG
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LLDWLWLWLD last 10
scored 6
from 9.3 xG
conceded 11
from 12.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.27–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.42–0.80 | 2-0 12% | 62% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Barcelona 2.96 xGGetafe 0.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Barcelona attacking right
Getafe attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 7' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gerard Martín |
| 14' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dani Olmo |
| 27' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.64 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 33' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Raphinha |
| 40' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gerard Martín |
| 40' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 42' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Pedri |
| 47' |
 Getafe |
Javi Muñoz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Getafe |
Domingos Duarte | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Luis Milla |
| 59' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 67' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pedri |
| 69' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gerard Martín |
| 87' |
Getafe |
Davinchi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
Barcelona |
Marc Casadó | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fermín López |
| 92' |
Barcelona |
Roony Bardghji | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dani Olmo |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdelkabir Abqar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Kiko Femenía DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego Rico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrián Liso FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Borja Mayoral FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Martín MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davinchi Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Javi Muñoz Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Abu Kamara Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Coba da Costa Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Sancris Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Lewandowski FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Dani Olmo MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 1.82 |
| Eric Garcia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Andreas Christensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.35 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Gerard Martín DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 1.37 |
| Pedri MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 1.15 | 1.40 |
| Ferrán Torres FWL | 63 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.29 | 0.00 | 2.01 |
| Frenkie de Jong MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.56 |
| Raphinha FWR | 49 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.37 | 1.48 |
| Marcus Rashford Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Fermín López Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.32 |
| Marc Casadó Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Roony Bardghji Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ronald Araújo Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |