Barcelona v Getafe — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Barcelona

15:00 UTC

Getafe

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 771h before kick-off

Barcelona win

82.0%

model 76.6%

Draw

10.7%

model 14.7%

Getafe win

7.3%

model 8.7%

82117

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (58 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 11.7%
3-0 10.1%
1-0 9.1%
2-1 9.0%
3-1 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	65.1%	Under 2.5	34.9%
BTTS yes	49.4%	BTTS no	50.6%
Barcelona 1+	92.5%	Barcelona 2+	73.0%
Getafe 1+	53.4%	Getafe 2+	17.8%

Expected goals 2.59 – 0.76. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

Barcelona (-1.5)

Asian handicap · usually 21%

52.0% fair odds 1.93

strong signal · 1036 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time · usually 83%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1245 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Barcelona carry the stronger rating, 1848 Elo against 1501.
Barcelona have created 2.45 xG a match over their last five while Getafe have allowed 1.21.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.
At home Barcelona average 2.35 xG a match.

Risk factors

Barcelona have scored 3.60 a match from 2.45 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Barcelona have an estimated 82.0% win probability, against 10.7% for the draw and 7.3% for Getafe. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.59 for Barcelona and 0.76 for Getafe.

Why Barcelona

Barcelona carry the stronger rating, 1848 Elo against 1501. Barcelona have created 2.45 xG a match over their last five while Getafe have allowed 1.21. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five. At home Barcelona average 2.35 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 10.7%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Getafe can win

Getafe have created 0.93 xG a match over their last five while Barcelona have allowed 0.92. Away from home Getafe average 0.61 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Barcelona were missing 1.49 expected goal involvements a match against 0.85.

Key players

Barcelona's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Lamine Yamal (0.88), Raphinha (0.81), Fermín López (0.49). Getafe's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Martín Satriano (0.40), Enes Ünal (0.31), Ramón Terrats (0.29).

Availability

Getafe had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.07 expected goal involvements a match. 36% of Getafe's last eleven are new to the club this window. Reported unavailable for Getafe: Zaid Romero (suspended).

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Barcelona: 69% possession, 19.0 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces. Getafe: 46% possession, 9.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Barcelona are the model's most likely outcome at 82.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.7%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.

WWWLWLWWWW last 10 scored 27 from 24.5 xG conceded 8 from 9.2 xG

Getafe are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LLDWLWLWLD last 10 scored 6 from 9.3 xG conceded 11 from 12.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	77159	2.59–0.76	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	80137	2.60–0.61	2-0 14%	62%	42%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to win	76.5%	82.2%	46.8%	1.76×	1.22
Draw	14.7%	10.7%	25.2%	0.43×	9.32
Getafe to win	8.8%	7.3%	28.1%	0.26×	13.61

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona & not both score	43.1%	46.1%	25.3%	1.82×	2.17
Barcelona & both teams score	33.4%	33.1%	21.7%	1.53×	3.03
Draw & both teams score	11.2%	12.1%	20.2%	0.60×	8.26
Getafe & both teams score	4.7%	3.7%	13.7%	0.27×	27.21
Getafe & not both score	4.0%	3.6%	14.6%	0.25×	27.44
Draw & not both score	3.5%	3.6%	5.1%	0.71×	27.62

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona & over 1.5	67.4%	66.6%	34.1%	1.95×	1.50
Barcelona & over 2.5	55.7%	56.3%	28.0%	2.01×	1.78
Barcelona & under 3.5	39.9%	37.7%	33.0%	1.14×	2.65
Barcelona & over 3.5	36.6%	37.6%	13.9%	2.70×	2.66
Barcelona & under 2.5	20.8%	21.5%	18.9%	1.13×	4.66
Draw & over 1.5	11.2%	12.7%	20.2%	0.63×	7.88
Draw & under 2.5	10.4%	12.7%	20.1%	0.63×	7.88
Draw & under 3.5	10.4%	12.7%	20.1%	0.63×	7.88
Barcelona & under 1.5	9.1%	7.5%	12.8%	0.58×	13.33
Getafe & under 3.5	6.6%	7.5%	21.7%	0.35×	13.34
Getafe & over 1.5	6.1%	7.5%	21.2%	0.35×	13.35
Getafe & over 2.5	5.1%	7.5%	16.7%	0.45×	13.35
Draw & over 2.5	4.3%	4.5%	5.2%	0.86×	22.31
Draw & over 3.5	4.3%	4.5%	5.2%	0.86×	22.31
Getafe & under 2.5	3.7%	4.5%	11.6%	0.39×	22.34
Draw & under 1.5	3.5%	4.5%	5.1%	0.88×	22.35
Getafe & under 1.5	2.7%	4.5%	7.1%	0.63×	22.38
Getafe & over 3.5	2.1%	4.5%	6.6%	0.68×	22.41

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (1UP)	84.6%	87.8%	63.2%	1.39×	1.14
Getafe (1UP)	25.0%	23.9%	47.1%	0.51×	4.18

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (2UP)	76.5%	82.9%	48.7%	1.70×	1.21
Getafe (2UP)	8.8%	8.4%	29.7%	0.28×	11.90

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to win 2nd half	68.7%	67.3%	39.5%	1.71×	1.49
2nd half drawn	22.1%	22.2%	33.0%	0.67×	4.50
Getafe to win 2nd half	9.2%	11.0%	27.7%	0.40×	9.11

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe under 1.5 in 2nd half	92.4%	91.8%	84.5%	1.09×	1.09
Getafe under 0.5 in 2nd half	63.6%	61.1%	48.3%	1.26×	1.64
Getafe over 0.5 in 2nd half	36.4%	38.9%	51.7%	0.75×	2.57
Getafe over 1.5 in 2nd half	7.6%	8.2%	15.5%	0.53×	12.19

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.1%	80.7%	58.7%	1.37×	1.24
Barcelona over 1.5 in 2nd half	51.3%	54.5%	20.0%	2.73×	1.83
Barcelona under 1.5 in 2nd half	48.7%	45.5%	80.0%	0.57×	2.20
Barcelona under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.9%	19.3%	41.3%	0.47×	5.17

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (+0.5)	91.2%	92.3%	71.9%	1.28×	1.08
Barcelona (-0.5)	76.5%	78.7%	46.8%	1.68×	1.27
Getafe (+2.5)	66.7%	69.1%	90.0%	0.77×	1.45
Barcelona (-1.5)	55.0%	52.0%	20.8%	2.50×	1.93
Getafe (+1.5)	45.1%	48.1%	79.2%	0.61×	2.08
Barcelona (-2.5)	33.3%	30.9%	10.0%	3.10×	3.24
Getafe (+0.5)	23.5%	21.3%	53.2%	0.40×	4.70
Getafe (-0.5)	8.8%	7.7%	28.1%	0.27×	12.99

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to concede	92.5%	92.4%	80.4%	1.15×	1.08
Getafe clean sheet	7.5%	7.6%	19.6%	0.39×	13.20

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to concede in 1st half	57.9%	60.4%	48.1%	1.26×	1.66
Getafe clean sheet in 1st half	42.1%	39.6%	51.9%	0.76×	2.52

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to concede in 2nd half	82.1%	83.8%	58.7%	1.43×	1.19
Getafe clean sheet in 2nd half	17.9%	16.2%	41.3%	0.39×	6.18

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe under 6.5 corners	93.5%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Getafe under 5.5 corners	87.4%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Getafe under 4.5 corners	77.2%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Getafe under 3.5 corners	62.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Getafe over 2.5 corners	57.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Getafe under 2.5 corners	42.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Getafe over 3.5 corners	38.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Getafe over 4.5 corners	22.8%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Getafe over 5.5 corners	12.6%	14.8%	—	—	6.76
Getafe over 6.5 corners	6.5%	10.0%	—	—	9.97

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe under 3.5 goals	99.2%	97.3%	97.3%	1.00×	1.03
Getafe under 2.5 goals	95.8%	97.2%	90.0%	1.08×	1.03
Getafe under 1.5 goals	82.2%	81.8%	68.1%	1.20×	1.22
Getafe over 0.5 goals	53.4%	52.1%	69.7%	0.75×	1.92
Getafe under 0.5 goals	46.6%	47.9%	30.3%	1.58×	2.09
Getafe over 1.5 goals	17.8%	18.3%	31.9%	0.57×	5.48
Getafe over 2.5 goals	4.2%	2.8%	10.0%	0.28×	36.16
Getafe over 3.5 goals	0.8%	2.7%	2.7%	0.99×	37.01

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe under 1.5 in 1st half	96.1%	96.1%	93.3%	1.03×	1.04
Getafe under 0.5 in 1st half	73.2%	69.3%	63.4%	1.09×	1.44
Getafe over 0.5 in 1st half	26.8%	30.8%	36.6%	0.84×	3.25
Getafe over 1.5 in 1st half	4.0%	3.9%	6.7%	0.58×	25.76

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe scores equally in both	53.4%	54.3%	42.2%	1.29×	1.84
Getafe scores more in 2nd half	28.5%	27.6%	37.1%	0.74×	3.63
Getafe scores more in 1st half	18.2%	18.3%	20.8%	0.88×	5.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (away no bet)	83.9%	85.3%	65.1%	1.31×	1.17
Draw (away no bet)	16.1%	14.7%	34.9%	0.42×	6.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe even goals	60.8%	63.7%	53.9%	1.18×	1.57
Getafe odd goals	39.2%	36.3%	46.1%	0.79×	2.76

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	79.0%	79.8%	86.9%	0.92×	1.25
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.0%	20.2%	13.1%	1.54×	4.96

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	75.7%	72.8%	62.4%	1.17×	1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals	24.3%	27.2%	37.6%	0.72×	3.68

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	72.3%	71.3%	52.3%	1.36×	1.40
Barcelona to score 2+ in a row	67.1%	64.9%	34.3%	1.89×	1.54
Either team to score 3+ in a row	40.0%	44.9%	18.9%	2.38×	2.23
Barcelona to score 3+ in a row	38.7%	37.3%	13.0%	2.87×	2.68
Getafe to score 2+ in a row	10.4%	12.2%	23.6%	0.52×	8.22
Getafe to score 3+ in a row	1.6%	3.3%	6.4%	0.52×	30.00

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona corners (+3.5)	97.3%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Barcelona corners (+2.5)	95.0%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Barcelona corners (+1.5)	91.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Barcelona corners (-1.5)	68.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Barcelona corners (-2.5)	58.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Getafe corners (+3.5)	52.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Barcelona corners (-3.5)	47.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Getafe corners (+2.5)	41.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Getafe corners (+1.5)	31.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Getafe corners (-1.5)	8.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.57
Getafe corners (-2.5)	5.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Getafe corners (-3.5)	2.7%	4.2%	—	—	23.68

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	40.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
12+ corners	30.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	77.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	69.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	69.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	61.0%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	59.5%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	51.0%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	49.0%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	40.5%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	39.0%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	30.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	30.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	22.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	12.0%	11.6%	3.0%	3.88×	8.62
2-0	11.7%	11.6%	6.2%	1.86×	8.62
3-0	10.1%	11.6%	4.6%	2.52×	8.63
1-0	9.1%	7.3%	12.8%	0.57×	13.76
2-1	9.0%	7.3%	9.7%	0.75×	13.76
3-1	7.7%	7.3%	3.6%	2.01×	13.76
1-1	6.9%	7.3%	15.1%	0.48×	13.77
4-0	6.6%	7.3%	1.6%	4.49×	13.77
4-1	5.0%	7.3%	2.0%	3.64×	13.77
0-0	3.5%	1.8%	5.1%	0.35×	55.42
0-1	2.7%	1.8%	7.1%	0.25×	55.44
1-2	2.7%	1.8%	8.3%	0.22×	55.44
2-2	3.4%	1.8%	4.4%	0.41×	55.42
3-2	3.0%	1.8%	3.2%	0.56×	55.44
4-2	1.9%	1.8%	1.4%	1.32×	55.46
0-2	1.0%	1.8%	4.6%	0.39×	55.48
0-3	0.3%	1.8%	2.0%	0.90×	55.50
0-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.9%	2.07×	55.51
1-3	0.7%	1.8%	1.9%	0.96×	55.49
1-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.51
2-3	0.9%	1.8%	2.2%	0.80×	55.49
2-4	0.2%	1.8%	0.5%	3.62×	55.50
3-3	0.8%	1.8%	1.0%	1.81×	55.49
3-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.4%	4.82×	55.50
4-3	0.5%	1.8%	0.7%	2.41×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.1%	14.47×	55.51

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (2nd half DNB)	88.2%	87.9%	58.7%	1.50×	1.14
Getafe (2nd half DNB)	11.8%	12.1%	41.3%	0.29×	8.23

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona leading at HT (DNB)	78.8%	80.1%	62.3%	1.29×	1.25
Getafe leading at HT (DNB)	21.2%	19.9%	37.7%	0.53×	5.02

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona or draw (1X)	91.2%	92.7%	71.9%	1.29×	1.08
Barcelona or Getafe (12)	85.3%	89.3%	74.8%	1.19×	1.12
Getafe or draw (X2)	23.5%	17.8%	53.2%	0.33×	5.63

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona or draw at HT	87.2%	88.3%	78.5%	1.13×	1.13
Barcelona or Getafe at HT	60.3%	63.1%	56.8%	1.11×	1.58
Getafe or draw at HT	52.5%	52.1%	64.5%	0.81×	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona or draw (1UP)	91.2%	94.0%	78.2%	1.20×	1.06
Getafe or draw (1UP)	25.0%	23.7%	60.1%	0.40×	4.21

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona or draw in 2nd half	90.8%	89.0%	72.3%	1.23×	1.12
Barcelona or Getafe in 2nd half	77.9%	77.8%	67.0%	1.16×	1.29
Getafe or draw in 2nd half	31.3%	32.7%	60.5%	0.54×	3.06

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	53.1%	52.2%	62.2%	0.84×	1.92
Neither half drawn	46.9%	47.8%	37.8%	1.26×	2.09

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (DNB)	89.7%	92.7%	62.5%	1.48×	1.08
Getafe (DNB)	10.3%	7.3%	37.5%	0.19×	13.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to score first	74.5%	77.8%	55.4%	1.40×	1.29
Getafe to score first	22.0%	19.6%	39.6%	0.50×	5.09
No goal scored	3.5%	4.0%	5.1%	0.78×	25.04

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	50.6%	53.1%	44.7%	1.19×	1.88
Both teams to score	49.4%	46.9%	55.3%	0.85×	2.13

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	42.5%	42.3%	40.3%	1.05×	2.36
Not both score & under 2.5	28.0%	31.4%	35.4%	0.89×	3.18
Not both score & over 2.5	22.6%	25.1%	9.5%	2.65×	3.99
Both score & under 2.5	6.9%	8.6%	15.1%	0.57×	11.58

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.0%	85.4%	86.2%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	13.0%	14.6%	13.8%	1.05×	6.86

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.1%	70.2%	71.4%	0.98×	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.9%	29.8%	28.6%	1.04×	3.36

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.2%	57.8%	60.3%	0.96×	1.73
Both score 2nd half only	25.3%	24.6%	23.1%	1.07×	4.07
Both score 1st half only	10.9%	11.5%	11.2%	1.03×	8.67
Both score in both halves	4.6%	4.9%	5.6%	0.87×	20.39

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.5%	83.3%	83.3%	1.00×	1.20
Both teams to score by HT	15.5%	16.7%	16.7%	1.00×	5.97

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.3%	62.9%	54.8%	1.15×	1.59
A half without a goal	38.7%	37.1%	45.2%	0.82×	2.70

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	41.7%	43.1%	49.8%	0.87×	2.32
4-6 goals	37.7%	35.5%	23.4%	1.51×	2.82
0-1 goals	15.3%	20.5%	24.8%	0.83×	4.87
7+ goals	5.3%	5.3%	2.2%	2.37×	18.78

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe to score exactly 0	46.6%	44.8%	30.3%	1.48×	2.23
Getafe to score exactly 1	35.6%	34.6%	38.0%	0.91×	2.89
Getafe to score exactly 2	13.6%	13.4%	22.0%	0.61×	7.46
Getafe to score 3+	4.2%	4.2%	10.0%	0.42×	23.77

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to score 3+	47.7%	45.5%	19.7%	2.31×	2.20
Barcelona to score exactly 2	25.2%	27.0%	22.7%	1.19×	3.70
Barcelona to score exactly 1	19.5%	18.5%	38.4%	0.48×	5.39
Barcelona to score exactly 0	7.5%	8.0%	19.6%	0.41×	12.56

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona leading at HT	47.5%	47.9%	35.5%	1.35×	2.09
Draw at HT	39.7%	36.9%	43.2%	0.85×	2.71
Getafe leading at HT	12.8%	11.7%	21.5%	0.54×	8.58

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona -1: 1	55.0%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Barcelona -1: 2	23.5%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Barcelona -1: X	21.6%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (0:1)	55.0%	53.7%	20.8%	2.58×	1.86
Getafe (0:1)	23.5%	24.5%	53.2%	0.46×	4.08
Draw (0:1)	21.6%	24.5%	26.2%	0.94×	4.08

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (0:2)	45.1%	44.1%	79.2%	0.56×	2.27
Barcelona (0:2)	33.3%	29.2%	10.0%	2.93×	3.42
Draw (0:2)	21.7%	21.4%	11.0%	1.95×	4.67

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (0:3)	66.7%	69.6%	90.0%	0.77×	1.44
Barcelona (0:3)	17.0%	17.5%	3.0%	5.87×	5.70
Draw (0:3)	16.3%	17.4%	7.1%	2.45×	5.75

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe (0:4)	83.0%	85.3%	97.0%	0.88×	1.17
Draw (0:4)	9.6%	7.3%	2.4%	3.07×	13.75
Barcelona (0:4)	7.4%	7.1%	0.7%	9.49×	14.10

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (1:0)	91.2%	91.9%	71.9%	1.28×	1.09
Draw (1:0)	6.4%	8.5%	17.7%	0.48×	11.72
Getafe (1:0)	2.4%	2.8%	10.6%	0.27×	35.32

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona (2:0)	97.6%	97.5%	89.4%	1.09×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	1.9%	2.7%	6.8%	0.39×	37.15
Getafe (2:0)	0.5%	2.7%	3.9%	0.69×	37.49

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	60.0%	60.0%	51.3%	1.17×	1.67
Halves equal	20.2%	23.0%	22.5%	1.02×	4.34
1st half highest scoring	19.8%	17.6%	26.3%	0.67×	5.67

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to concede	53.4%	53.2%	69.7%	0.76×	1.88
Barcelona clean sheet	46.6%	46.8%	30.3%	1.55×	2.14

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona clean sheet in 1st half	73.2%	68.4%	63.4%	1.08×	1.46
Barcelona to concede in 1st half	26.8%	31.6%	36.6%	0.87×	3.16

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona clean sheet in 2nd half	63.6%	61.0%	48.3%	1.26×	1.64
Barcelona to concede in 2nd half	36.4%	39.0%	51.7%	0.75×	2.57

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona over 2.5 corners	91.5%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Barcelona over 3.5 corners	82.8%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Barcelona over 4.5 corners	71.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Barcelona over 5.5 corners	59.1%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Barcelona under 6.5 corners	53.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Barcelona over 6.5 corners	46.6%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Barcelona under 5.5 corners	40.9%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Barcelona under 4.5 corners	28.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Barcelona under 3.5 corners	17.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.26
Barcelona under 2.5 corners	8.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.32

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona over 0.5 goals	92.5%	92.2%	80.4%	1.15×	1.09
Barcelona under 3.5 goals	74.0%	72.8%	92.7%	0.79×	1.37
Barcelona over 1.5 goals	73.0%	72.8%	42.2%	1.72×	1.37
Barcelona under 2.5 goals	52.3%	53.0%	80.3%	0.66×	1.89
Barcelona over 2.5 goals	47.7%	47.0%	19.7%	2.39×	2.13
Barcelona under 1.5 goals	27.0%	27.2%	57.8%	0.47×	3.68
Barcelona over 3.5 goals	26.0%	27.2%	7.3%	3.70×	3.68
Barcelona under 0.5 goals	7.5%	7.8%	19.6%	0.40×	12.81

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona under 1.5 in 1st half	78.5%	79.3%	86.0%	0.92×	1.26
Barcelona over 0.5 in 1st half	57.9%	60.1%	48.1%	1.25×	1.66
Barcelona under 0.5 in 1st half	42.1%	39.9%	51.9%	0.77×	2.51
Barcelona over 1.5 in 1st half	21.5%	20.7%	14.0%	1.48×	4.83

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona scores more in 2nd half	57.6%	60.0%	40.0%	1.50×	1.67
Barcelona scores equally in both	23.7%	22.4%	32.5%	0.69×	4.46
Barcelona scores more in 1st half	18.7%	16.6%	27.7%	0.60×	6.03

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	62.7%	61.2%	47.2%	1.30×	1.63
Getafe (home no bet)	37.3%	38.8%	52.8%	0.73×	2.58

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona even goals	50.3%	50.2%	47.4%	1.06×	1.99
Barcelona odd goals	49.7%	49.8%	52.6%	0.95×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.8%	30.4%	32.1%	0.95×	3.29
HT 1-0	26.7%	28.1%	22.7%	1.24×	3.56
HT 2-0	11.5%	11.2%	6.2%	1.79×	8.95
HT 0-1	9.6%	7.7%	16.2%	0.48×	12.97
HT 1-1	8.3%	7.7%	10.1%	0.76×	12.98
Any other HT score	6.1%	7.7%	4.5%	1.71×	13.02
HT 2-1	3.6%	2.5%	3.2%	0.77×	39.80
HT 0-2	1.5%	2.5%	3.1%	0.80×	39.91
HT 1-2	1.3%	2.5%	1.5%	1.67×	39.93
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.5%	1.2%	2.00×	39.97

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona at HT / Barcelona at FT	44.5%	42.7%	26.5%	1.61×	2.34
Draw at HT / Barcelona at FT	27.3%	27.2%	18.0%	1.52×	3.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	8.8%	6.6%	14.0%	0.47×	15.18
Getafe at HT / Barcelona at FT	4.7%	3.4%	2.7%	1.24×	29.30
Getafe at HT / Getafe at FT	4.6%	3.4%	12.9%	0.27×	29.31
Draw at HT / Getafe at FT	3.6%	3.4%	11.5%	0.30×	29.35
Getafe at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.4%	6.1%	0.56×	29.36
Barcelona at HT / Draw at FT	2.5%	3.4%	5.2%	0.65×	29.40
Barcelona at HT / Getafe at FT	0.6%	3.4%	4.0%	0.85×	29.48

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to score last	74.5%	78.1%	55.7%	1.40×	1.28
Getafe to score last	22.0%	20.1%	39.3%	0.51×	4.97
No goal scored	3.5%	4.0%	5.1%	0.78×	25.04

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.5%	96.0%	94.9%	1.01×	1.04
Barcelona to lead by 1 at any time	84.6%	89.1%	63.2%	1.41×	1.12
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	65.7%	70.8%	41.6%	1.70×	1.41
Barcelona to lead by 2 at any time	60.7%	64.3%	26.5%	2.43×	1.56
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	37.5%	37.3%	16.7%	2.23×	2.68
Barcelona to lead by 3 at any time	36.6%	37.3%	12.2%	3.05×	2.68
Getafe to lead by 1 at any time	25.0%	26.1%	47.1%	0.55×	3.84
Getafe to lead by 2 at any time	5.3%	7.0%	15.5%	0.45×	14.28
Getafe to lead by 3 at any time	0.9%	2.6%	4.6%	0.56×	38.88

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona most corners	78.0%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Getafe most corners	14.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Corners level	7.6%	8.4%	—	—	11.91

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.3%	81.6%	89.2%	0.92×	1.23
2-6 goals	79.5%	78.9%	73.1%	1.08×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.6%	73.6%	69.5%	1.06×	1.36
1-4 goals	72.0%	73.6%	81.2%	0.91×	1.36
2-4 goals	60.2%	62.2%	61.5%	1.01×	1.61
3-6 goals	59.8%	58.9%	47.6%	1.24×	1.70
1-3 goals	53.5%	52.4%	69.5%	0.75×	1.91
3-5 goals	52.9%	52.4%	44.0%	1.19×	1.91
2-3 goals	41.7%	43.6%	49.8%	0.88×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.5%	43.6%	36.0%	1.21×	2.29
4-6 goals	37.7%	38.9%	23.4%	1.66×	2.57
1-2 goals	31.5%	34.0%	45.3%	0.75×	2.94
4-5 goals	30.8%	34.0%	19.8%	1.72×	2.94
5-6 goals	19.3%	18.2%	11.7%	1.55×	5.51
7+ goals	5.3%	8.8%	2.2%	3.91×	11.42

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona never behind	71.5%	73.7%	52.9%	1.39×	1.36
Getafe never behind	11.9%	9.4%	36.8%	0.26×	10.62

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.2%	53.7%	0.94×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.8%	46.3%	1.07×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.8%	52.0%	53.6%	0.97×	1.92
Odd goals in 1st half	45.2%	48.0%	46.4%	1.03×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.7%	51.7%	49.7%	1.04×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.3%	48.3%	50.3%	0.96×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.5%	95.7%	94.9%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	87.8%	88.8%	94.1%	0.94×	1.13
Over 1.5 goals	84.7%	81.1%	75.2%	1.08×	1.23
Under 4.5 goals	75.5%	78.1%	86.2%	0.91×	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	65.0%	65.2%	49.7%	1.31×	1.53
Under 3.5 goals	57.0%	57.5%	74.5%	0.77×	1.74
Over 3.5 goals	43.0%	42.5%	25.5%	1.66×	2.35
Under 2.5 goals	35.0%	34.8%	50.3%	0.69×	2.87
Over 4.5 goals	24.5%	21.9%	13.8%	1.59×	4.56
Under 1.5 goals	15.3%	18.9%	24.8%	0.76×	5.28
Over 5.5 goals	12.2%	11.2%	5.9%	1.92×	8.90
Under 0.5 goals	3.5%	4.3%	5.1%	0.85×	23.09

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.4%	92.9%	97.7%	0.95×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.1%	88.2%	93.6%	0.94×	1.13
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	81.0%	80.5%	66.7%	1.21×	1.24
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	69.9%	68.1%	84.3%	0.81×	1.47
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	55.1%	55.4%	33.7%	1.65×	1.80
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	44.9%	44.6%	66.3%	0.67×	2.24
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	30.1%	31.9%	15.7%	2.04×	3.13
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.0%	19.5%	33.3%	0.59×	5.13
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.9%	11.8%	6.4%	1.86×	8.45
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.6%	7.1%	2.3%	3.07×	14.01

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.5%	88.1%	89.9%	0.98×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.2%	68.6%	67.9%	1.01×	1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.1%	68.6%	70.8%	0.97×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.9%	31.4%	29.2%	1.08×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.8%	31.4%	32.1%	0.98×	3.19
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.5%	11.9%	10.1%	1.18×	8.42

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	88.6%	86.0%	81.8%	1.05×	1.16
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	63.9%	61.1%	46.3%	1.32×	1.64
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	63.1%	61.0%	79.7%	0.77×	1.64
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	36.9%	39.0%	20.4%	1.92×	2.57
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	36.1%	38.9%	53.7%	0.72×	2.57
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	11.4%	14.1%	18.2%	0.77×	7.12

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe not to score in both halves	90.3%	89.8%	81.4%	1.10×	1.11
Barcelona not to score in both halves	52.5%	53.3%	73.7%	0.72×	1.88
Barcelona to score in both halves	47.5%	46.7%	26.3%	1.77×	2.14
Getafe to score in both halves	9.7%	10.2%	18.6%	0.55×	9.83

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	49.4%	49.3%	55.3%	0.89×	2.03
Only Barcelona scores	43.1%	46.1%	25.3%	1.82×	2.17
Only Getafe scores	4.0%	3.9%	14.6%	0.26×	25.91
Neither team scores	3.5%	3.8%	5.1%	0.75×	26.08

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.0%	21.6%	24.3%	0.89×	4.63
Exactly 2 goals	19.7%	18.6%	25.7%	0.72×	5.38
Exactly 4 goals	18.5%	18.6%	11.8%	1.57×	5.38
Exactly 5 goals	12.4%	12.3%	8.1%	1.52×	8.11
6 or more goals	12.2%	12.3%	5.9%	2.11×	8.11
Exactly 1 goals	11.8%	12.3%	19.8%	0.62×	8.11
Exactly 0 goals	3.5%	4.3%	5.1%	0.85×	23.08

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.3%	37.3%	38.8%	0.96×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	30.8%	32.5%	32.1%	1.01×	3.08
2 goals in 1st half	21.3%	21.6%	19.2%	1.12×	4.63
3+ goals in 1st half	11.5%	11.9%	10.1%	1.17×	8.43

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	63.9%	60.7%	46.3%	1.31×	1.65
1 goal in 2nd half	24.8%	18.6%	35.6%	0.52×	5.38
No goals in 2nd half	11.4%	12.7%	18.2%	0.69×	7.90

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe not to win both halves	98.8%	96.7%	94.6%	1.02×	1.04
Barcelona not to win both halves	67.4%	63.1%	88.1%	0.72×	1.59
Barcelona to win both halves	32.6%	36.9%	11.9%	3.12×	2.71
Getafe to win both halves	1.2%	3.3%	5.4%	0.62×	29.93

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona to win either half	83.6%	85.5%	63.0%	1.36×	1.17
Getafe to win neither half	79.2%	82.2%	56.2%	1.46×	1.22
Getafe to win either half	20.8%	17.8%	43.8%	0.41×	5.62
Barcelona to win neither half	16.4%	14.5%	37.0%	0.39×	6.91

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Getafe not to win to nil	96.0%	96.2%	85.4%	1.13×	1.04
Barcelona not to win to nil	56.9%	53.9%	74.7%	0.72×	1.86
Barcelona to win to nil	43.1%	46.1%	25.3%	1.82×	2.17
Getafe to win to nil	4.0%	3.8%	14.6%	0.26×	26.54

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Barcelona by 3+	33.3%	27.6%	10.0%	2.77×	3.62
Barcelona by 2	21.7%	23.9%	11.0%	2.18×	4.19
Barcelona by 1	21.6%	23.9%	26.2%	0.91×	4.19
Draw	14.7%	11.7%	25.2%	0.47×	8.52
Getafe by 1	6.4%	7.0%	17.7%	0.40×	14.25
Getafe by 2	1.9%	2.8%	6.8%	0.41×	35.45
Getafe by 3+	0.5%	2.8%	3.9%	0.73×	35.65