Barcelona v Osasuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 December 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
24 – 3
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 2
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.23 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.16 – -0.23
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Barcelona win
76.1%
Draw
14.4%
Osasuna win
9.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWLWLWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.5 xG
conceded 8
from 9.2 xG
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLDWWL last 10
scored 12
from 15.1 xG
conceded 17
from 12.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.61–0.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.79–1.15 | 2-1 9% | 75% | 64% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Barcelona 2.16 xGOsasuna 0.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Barcelona attacking right
Osasuna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14' |
 Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 15' |
 Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Torró |
| 18' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Iñigo Arguibide |
| 19' |
Barcelona |
Pedri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álex Balde |
| 21' |
Barcelona |
Eric Garcia | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 21' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 22' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Barcelona |
Eric Garcia | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Barcelona |
Álex Balde | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 37' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 39' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 45' |
Barcelona |
Pau Cubarsí | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eric Garcia |
| 47' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 47' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 54' |
Barcelona |
Gerard Martín | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 57' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Barcelona |
Marcus Rashford | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álex Balde |
| 58' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marcus Rashford |
| 62' |
Barcelona |
Pau Cubarsí | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Raphinha |
| 67' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eric Garcia |
| 69' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pedri |
| 80' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Frenkie de Jong |
| 85' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.63 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abel Bretones DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge Herrando DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jon Moncayola MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iñigo Arguibide DR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Víctor Muñoz MR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ante Budimir FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Aimar Oroz ML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Torró MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Iker Muñoz Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rubén García Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Raul García Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sheraldo Becker Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentin Rosier Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphinha AMC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.06 | 0.99 |
| Ferrán Torres FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.09 | 0.64 |
| Lamine Yamal AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.48 | 0.84 |
| Gerard Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Eric Garcia DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.81 |
| Pedri DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.75 |
| Álex Balde DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.78 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.68 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Marcus Rashford AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.07 | 0.65 |
| Frenkie de Jong Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Fermín López Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Roony Bardghji Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Casadó Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andreas Christensen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |