Barcelona v Real Betis — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 7
On target
9 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 3
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.77
Goals − xG
+1.40 – +0.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Barcelona win
71.3%
Draw
16.5%
Real Betis win
12.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWLWLWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.5 xG
conceded 8
from 9.2 xG
Real Betis are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWDWLWWWLW last 10
scored 16
from 15.0 xG
conceded 13
from 18.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.50–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.67–1.14 | 2-1 9% | 73% | 63% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Barcelona 1.60 xGReal Betis 0.99 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Barcelona attacking right
Real Betis attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pedri |
| 6' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Robert Lewandowski |
| 15' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gavi |
| 27' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 35' |
 Real Betis |
Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 42' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovani Lo Celso |
| 44' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Raphinha |
| 45' |
Real Betis |
Sofyan Amrabat | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antony |
| 49' |
Barcelona |
João Cancelo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raphinha |
| 52' |
Real Betis |
Nelson Deossa | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antony |
| 56' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gavi |
| 61' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 68' |
Real Betis |
Isco | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 72' |
Real Betis |
Antony | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nelson Deossa |
| 73' |
Barcelona |
João Cancelo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pedri |
| 80' |
Barcelona |
Roony Bardghji | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 82' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedri |
| 88' |
Barcelona |
Álex Balde | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marc Casadó |
| 90' |
Real Betis |
Héctor Bellerín | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nelson Deossa |
| 91' |
Barcelona |
Jules Koundé | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pedri |
| 92' |
Barcelona |
Gerard Martín | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | João Cancelo |
Players
Real Betis
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Héctor Bellerín DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Nelson Deossa MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Álvaro Vallés GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentín Gómez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Natan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Júnior Firpo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Antony MR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Sofyan Amrabat DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli ML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Giovani Lo Celso FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| Álvaro Fidalgo MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Isco Sub | 43 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Cédric Bakambu Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Roca Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ezequiel Ávila Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Cancelo DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Gerard Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Pedri MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.90 |
| Gavi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.78 |
| Robert Lewandowski FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.41 |
| Marc Bernal MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Eric Garcia DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Raphinha FWR | 64 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.91 | 0.15 | 0.99 |
| Fermín López FWL | 47 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Álex Balde Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Roony Bardghji Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Ronald Araújo Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Dani Olmo Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Marc Casadó Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.14 |