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Barcelona v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 October 2024 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

5–1
4.09 – 0.60 xG
Shots
21 – 7
On target
9 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 5
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
1.36 – 0.13
Goals − xG
+0.65 – +0.40
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.22.43.64.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Robert Lewandowski 23' — goalPedri 27' — goalRobert Lewandowski 38' — goalPablo Torre 81' — goalStanis Idumbo Muzambo 86' — goalPablo Torre 87' — goal
Barcelona 4.35 xGSevilla 0.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Lamine Yamal 4' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dodi Lukebakio 8' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Anssumane Fati 16' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Dodi Lukebakio 18' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Robert Lewandowski 23' — Goal (0.74 xG, )Pedri 27' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Lamine Yamal 35' — Missed Shot (0.39 xG, Open Play)Robert Lewandowski 35' — Saved Shot (0.63 xG, Open Play)Raphinha 38' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Robert Lewandowski 38' — Goal (0.52 xG, From Corner)Marc Casadó 41' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Lamine Yamal 45' — Missed Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Lamine Yamal 46' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Isaac Romero 47' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Raphinha 49' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Lamine Yamal 50' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Isaac Romero 53' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Robert Lewandowski 60' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Álex Balde 60' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lucien Agoume 62' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Suso 62' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Anssumane Fati 71' — Saved Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Lamine Yamal 74' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Pablo Torre 81' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Pau Victor 85' — Saved Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)Álex Balde 85' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Stanis Idumbo Muzambo 86' — Goal (0.25 xG, Open Play)Pablo Torre 87' — Goal (0.03 xG, Direct Freekick)
Barcelona attacking right Sevilla attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jules Koundé
8' Sevilla Dodi Lukebakio 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Peque
16' Barcelona Anssumane Fati 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Raphinha
18' Sevilla Dodi Lukebakio 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Isaac Romero
23' Barcelona Robert Lewandowski 0.74 Right Foot Goal
27' Barcelona Pedri 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal Lamine Yamal
35' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.39 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
35' Barcelona Robert Lewandowski 0.63 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Lamine Yamal
38' Barcelona Raphinha 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
38' Barcelona Robert Lewandowski 0.52 From Corner Right Foot Goal Raphinha
41' Barcelona Marc Casadó 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Anssumane Fati
45' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.28 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Raphinha
46' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot
47' Sevilla Isaac Romero 0.07 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot
49' Barcelona Raphinha 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Lamine Yamal
50' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Raphinha
53' Sevilla Isaac Romero 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Suso
60' Barcelona Robert Lewandowski 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
60' Barcelona Álex Balde 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Pedri
62' Sevilla Lucien Agoume 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Suso
62' Sevilla Suso 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dodi Lukebakio
71' Barcelona Anssumane Fati 0.38 Open Play Saved Shot Pedri
74' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Pedri
81' Barcelona Pablo Torre 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal
85' Barcelona Pau Victor 0.45 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Fermín López
85' Barcelona Álex Balde 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Gavi
86' Sevilla Stanis Idumbo Muzambo 0.25 Open Play Right Foot Goal Loic Bade
87' Barcelona Pablo Torre 0.03 Direct Freekick Right Foot Goal

Players

Sevilla

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Isaac Romero FW 90 0 0 2 1 0.14 0.04 0.11
Dodi Lukebakio AMR 90 0 0 2 1 0.12 0.04 0.22
Ørjan Nyland GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.25
Nemanja Gudelj DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Marcão DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Loic Bade DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.25 0.25
José Ángel Carmona DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Adrià Pedrosa DL 84 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Lucien Agoume DMC 73 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.07
Peque AMC 49 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.08
Chidera Ejuke AML 45 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Albert Sambi Lokonga Sub 45 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Suso Sub 24 0 0 1 2 0.04 0.12 0.10
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo Sub 17 1 0 1 0 0.25 0.00 0.25
Djibril Sow Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gonzalo Montiel Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Barcelona

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Álex Balde DL 90 0 0 2 0 0.16 0.00 0.26
Marc Casadó DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.27
Iñaki Peña GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Iñigo Martínez DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.82
Jules Koundé DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.10
Pau Cubarsí DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.55
Pedri DMC 86 1 0 1 3 0.10 0.53 0.83
Lamine Yamal AMR 79 0 1 6 3 0.95 0.82 2.26
Anssumane Fati AML 79 0 0 2 1 0.46 0.04 0.80
Robert Lewandowski FW 69 2 0 4 0 1.94 0.00 1.08
Raphinha AMC 69 0 1 2 4 0.12 1.03 1.36
Pau Victor Sub 21 0 0 1 0 0.45 0.00 0.45
Fermín López Sub 21 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.45 0.82
Pablo Torre Sub 11 2 0 2 0 0.14 0.00 0.65
Gerard Martín Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gavi Sub 4 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.10
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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