Barcelona v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 9
On target
8 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 7
xG per shot
0.30 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.99 – 0.24
Goals − xG
+1.14 – +0.96
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Barcelona win
77.3%
Draw
14.4%
Sevilla win
8.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWLWLWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.5 xG
conceded 8
from 9.2 xG
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.83–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 3.55–0.91 | 3-0 9% | 82% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Barcelona 3.86 xGSevilla 1.04 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Barcelona attacking right
Sevilla attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
 Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 16' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pedri |
| 20' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 24' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Djibril Sow |
| 34' |
Barcelona |
Gerard Martín | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pedri |
| 37' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 40' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | José Ángel Carmona |
| 44' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Dani Olmo |
| 46' |
Sevilla |
Alexis Sánchez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Sevilla |
Oso | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 50' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Fermín López |
| 59' |
Barcelona |
João Cancelo | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 67' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 68' |
Barcelona |
Ronald Araújo | 0.50 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Raphinha |
| 72' |
Sevilla |
Andrés Castrín | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Djibril Sow |
| 72' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 75' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fermín López |
| 91' |
Sevilla |
Djibril Sow | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Goal | Oso |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djibril Sow DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| Oso AML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.61 |
| Alexis Sánchez AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| Nemanja Gudelj DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Juanlu Sanchez DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Lucien Agoume DMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Nianzou Kouassi DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Akor Adams FW | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Gabriel Suazo DL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| José Ángel Carmona AMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Ruben Vargas Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Neal Maupay Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Andrés Castrín Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Manu Bueno Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Lewandowski FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Dani Olmo MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.23 | 0.99 |
| Gerard Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Pau Cubarsí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Xavi Espart DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Raphinha FWL | 85 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.59 | 0.50 | 0.19 |
| Marc Bernal MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Roony Bardghji FWR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| João Cancelo DL | 69 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Pedri MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Fermín López Sub | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| Ronald Araújo Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lamine Yamal Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Casadó Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Gavi Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |