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Barcelona v Valencia — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 26 January 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

7–1
4.36 – 1.30 xG
Shots
22 – 8
On target
11 – 2
Shots in box
16 – 6
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.67
Goals − xG
+2.49 – -0.30
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.32.53.85.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Frenkie de Jong 2' — goalFerrán Torres 7' — goalRaphinha 13' — goalFermín López 23' — goalFermín López 48' — goalHugo Duro 58' — goalRobert Lewandowski 65' — goal
Barcelona 4.51 xGValencia 1.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Frenkie de Jong 2' — Goal (0.37 xG, Open Play)Raphinha 4' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lamine Yamal 5' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Ferrán Torres 7' — Goal (0.34 xG, Open Play)Pepelu 10' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Raphinha 13' — Goal (0.46 xG, Open Play)Marc Casadó 18' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Fermín López 23' — Goal (0.44 xG, Open Play)Ferrán Torres 26' — Missed Shot (0.49 xG, Open Play)Eric Garcia 29' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Lamine Yamal 31' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Álex Balde 31' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ferrán Torres 40' — Blocked Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Luis Rioja 45' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)André Almeida 46' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Diego López 46' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Fermín López 48' — Goal (0.35 xG, Open Play)Raphinha 48' — Shot On Post (0.44 xG, Open Play)Marc Casadó 51' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ferrán Torres 53' — Missed Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)Lamine Yamal 57' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)André Almeida 57' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Hugo Duro 58' — Goal (0.37 xG, Open Play)Robert Lewandowski 65' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)Ferrán Torres 71' — Saved Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Ferrán Torres 74' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)César Tárrega 74' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Yarek Gasiorowski 77' — Missed Shot (0.62 xG, From Corner)Robert Lewandowski 81' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Pablo Torre 87' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Barcelona attacking right Valencia attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Barcelona Frenkie de Jong 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Goal Lamine Yamal
4' Barcelona Raphinha 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Álex Balde
5' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
7' Barcelona Ferrán Torres 0.34 Open Play Right Foot Goal Álex Balde
10' Valencia Pepelu 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
13' Barcelona Raphinha 0.46 Open Play Right Foot Goal Fermín López
18' Barcelona Marc Casadó 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Jules Koundé
23' Barcelona Fermín López 0.44 Open Play Right Foot Goal Pau Cubarsí
26' Barcelona Ferrán Torres 0.49 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jules Koundé
29' Barcelona Eric Garcia 0.08 From Corner Missed Shot Raphinha
31' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Fermín López
31' Barcelona Álex Balde 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
40' Barcelona Ferrán Torres 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Álex Balde
45' Valencia Luis Rioja 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
46' Valencia André Almeida 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot José Gayá
46' Valencia Diego López 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Luis Rioja
48' Barcelona Fermín López 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Goal
48' Barcelona Raphinha 0.44 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Lamine Yamal
51' Barcelona Marc Casadó 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Frenkie de Jong
53' Barcelona Ferrán Torres 0.46 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Raphinha
57' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot Raphinha
57' Valencia André Almeida 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Javier Guerra
58' Valencia Hugo Duro 0.37 Open Play Left Foot Goal Diego López
65' Barcelona Robert Lewandowski 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Goal Fermín López
71' Barcelona Ferrán Torres 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Pau Victor
74' Barcelona Ferrán Torres 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Marc Casadó
74' Valencia César Tárrega 0.00 Open Play Right Foot Own Goal
77' Valencia Yarek Gasiorowski 0.62 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Fran Pérez
81' Barcelona Robert Lewandowski 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Gerard Martín
87' Barcelona Pablo Torre 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Gerard Martín

Players

Valencia

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Hugo Duro FW 90 1 0 1 0 0.37 0.00 0.37
Pepelu MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Luis Rioja ML 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.12 0.14
Giorgi Mamardashvili GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Javier Guerra MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.12
César Tárrega DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dimitri Foulquier DR 87 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yarek Gasiorowski DC 86 0 0 1 0 0.62 0.00 0.00
Diego López MR 64 0 1 1 1 0.12 0.37 0.12
André Almeida FW 64 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.24
José Gayá DL 64 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
Jesús Vázquez Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fran Pérez Sub 26 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.62 0.00
Max Aarons Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Iker Córdoba Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mouctar Diakhaby Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Barcelona

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ferrán Torres FW 90 1 0 6 0 1.91 0.00 2.55
Fermín López AMC 90 2 2 2 3 0.79 0.60 3.79
Eric Garcia DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 1.95
Marc Casadó DMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.06 0.09 2.15
Pau Cubarsí DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.44 2.80
Wojciech Szczesny GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.91
Frenkie de Jong DMC 82 1 0 1 1 0.37 0.04 1.52
Lamine Yamal AMR 75 0 1 3 2 0.11 0.81 1.93
Jules Koundé DR 75 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.51 1.66
Raphinha AML 64 1 0 3 3 0.95 0.57 2.62
Álex Balde DL 64 0 1 1 3 0.05 0.55 2.36
Robert Lewandowski Sub 26 1 0 2 0 0.17 0.00 0.26
Gerard Martín Sub 26 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.67
Pau Victor Sub 15 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.38 0.56
Hector Fort Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.58
Pablo Torre Sub 8 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.10
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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