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Barracas Central v Argentinos Juniors — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 7 September 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Barracas Central win
27.6%
model 27.3%
Draw
28.3%
model 30.2%
Argentinos Juniors win
44.2%
model 42.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-1 14.3%
  2. 1-1 13.6%
  3. 0-0 12.6%
  4. 1-0 10.6%
  5. 0-2 8.8%

Goals

Over 2.535.1% Under 2.564.9%
BTTS yes42.0% BTTS no58.0%
Barracas Central 1+59.5% Barracas Central 2+22.9%
Argentinos Juniors 1+69.9% Argentinos Juniors 2+33.7%

Expected goals 0.90 – 1.20. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
24/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Argentinos Juniors or draw (X2)
Double chance · usually 58%
72.3% fair odds 1.38
strong signal · 1552 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Barracas Central not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.4% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Argentinos Juniors carry the stronger rating, 1651 Elo against 1506.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Argentinos Juniors have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 28.3% for the draw and 27.6% for Barracas Central. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.90 for Barracas Central and 1.20 for Argentinos Juniors.

Why Barracas Central

Nothing in the data singles out Barracas Central.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.3%. A combined 2.10 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Argentinos Juniors can win

Argentinos Juniors carry the stronger rating, 1651 Elo against 1506. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Barracas Central, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Argentinos Juniors, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Barracas Central: 49% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Argentinos Juniors: 65% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Argentinos Juniors are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 14.2%. Confidence 24/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.90–1.20 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.82–1.07 0-1 16% 29% 37%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors to win 40.6% 43.0% 27.8% 1.55× 2.33
Draw 32.3% 30.4% 30.6% 0.99× 3.29
Barracas Central to win 27.1% 27.9% 41.7% 0.67× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors & not both score 28.6% 25.2% 17.2% 1.46× 3.97
Barracas Central & not both score 18.7% 17.9% 27.8% 0.65× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 16.9% 17.9% 15.9% 1.12× 5.58
Draw & not both score 15.4% 17.9% 14.8% 1.21× 5.58
Argentinos Juniors & both teams score 12.0% 13.2% 10.7% 1.24× 7.55
Barracas Central & both teams score 8.3% 8.4% 14.1% 0.59× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors & under 3.5 34.7% 30.9% 23.6% 1.31× 3.24
Draw & under 2.5 29.1% 26.0% 28.1% 0.93× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 29.1% 26.0% 28.1% 0.93× 3.84
Argentinos Juniors & over 1.5 24.9% 21.6% 17.5% 1.23× 4.62
Argentinos Juniors & under 2.5 24.5% 21.6% 14.7% 1.47× 4.62
Barracas Central & under 3.5 23.8% 21.6% 34.9% 0.62× 4.62
Barracas Central & under 2.5 17.0% 18.0% 23.6% 0.76× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.9% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 15.4% 18.0% 14.8% 1.22× 5.56
Argentinos Juniors & under 1.5 15.8% 18.0% 10.3% 1.74× 5.56
Argentinos Juniors & over 2.5 16.2% 18.0% 13.2% 1.36× 5.56
Barracas Central & over 1.5 15.1% 18.0% 27.6% 0.65× 5.56
Barracas Central & under 1.5 12.0% 12.9% 14.2% 0.90× 7.78
Barracas Central & over 2.5 10.1% 12.9% 18.2% 0.71× 7.78
Argentinos Juniors & over 3.5 6.0% 7.9% 4.2% 1.86× 12.69
Barracas Central & over 3.5 3.2% 4.8% 7.0% 0.68× 20.94
Draw & over 2.5 3.2% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.94
Draw & over 3.5 3.2% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (1UP) 52.4% 52.8% 1.90
Barracas Central (1UP) 40.0% 34.2% 2.92
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (2UP) 40.6% 47.5% 2.11
Barracas Central (2UP) 27.1% 24.6% 4.07
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 43.8% 41.3% 2.42
Argentinos Juniors to win 2nd half 33.8% 34.5% 2.90
Barracas Central to win 2nd half 22.3% 23.0% 4.36
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (+2.5) 97.9% 96.3% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
Argentinos Juniors (+1.5) 91.2% 92.1% 82.5% 1.12× 1.09
Argentinos Juniors (+0.5) 72.9% 73.7% 58.3% 1.26× 1.36
Barracas Central (+0.5) 59.4% 57.0% 72.2% 0.79× 1.75
Argentinos Juniors (-0.5) 40.6% 43.0% 27.8% 1.55× 2.33
Barracas Central (-0.5) 27.1% 26.3% 41.7% 0.63× 3.80
Barracas Central (-1.5) 8.8% 7.9% 17.5% 0.45× 12.66
Barracas Central (-2.5) 2.1% 3.7% 5.0% 0.74× 26.87
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors to concede 56.0% 62.6% 68.1% 0.92× 1.60
Argentinos Juniors clean sheet 44.0% 37.4% 31.9% 1.17× 2.67
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors clean sheet in 1st half 70.3% 76.7% 1.30
Argentinos Juniors to concede in 1st half 29.7% 23.3% 4.30
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors under 6.5 corners 79.8% 75.8% 1.32
Argentinos Juniors over 2.5 corners 76.6% 75.8% 1.32
Argentinos Juniors under 5.5 corners 69.0% 68.2% 1.47
Argentinos Juniors over 3.5 corners 60.6% 61.4% 1.63
Argentinos Juniors under 4.5 corners 55.3% 56.9% 1.76
Argentinos Juniors over 4.5 corners 44.7% 43.1% 2.32
Argentinos Juniors under 3.5 corners 39.4% 38.6% 2.59
Argentinos Juniors over 5.5 corners 31.0% 31.8% 3.15
Argentinos Juniors under 2.5 corners 23.4% 24.2% 4.13
Argentinos Juniors over 6.5 corners 20.2% 24.2% 4.14
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors under 3.5 goals 97.6% 97.6% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Argentinos Juniors under 2.5 goals 90.6% 92.3% 93.3% 0.99× 1.08
Argentinos Juniors under 1.5 goals 70.9% 71.9% 78.2% 0.92× 1.39
Argentinos Juniors over 0.5 goals 65.8% 68.0% 57.6% 1.18× 1.47
Argentinos Juniors under 0.5 goals 34.2% 32.1% 42.4% 0.76× 3.12
Argentinos Juniors over 1.5 goals 29.1% 28.1% 21.8% 1.29× 3.56
Argentinos Juniors over 2.5 goals 9.4% 7.7% 6.7% 1.15× 13.05
Argentinos Juniors over 3.5 goals 2.4% 2.4% 1.1% 2.12× 41.07
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors under 1.5 in 1st half 93.0% 94.2% 1.06
Argentinos Juniors under 0.5 in 1st half 65.1% 67.7% 1.48
Argentinos Juniors over 0.5 in 1st half 34.9% 32.3% 3.10
Argentinos Juniors over 1.5 in 1st half 7.0% 5.8% 17.13
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 54.4% 51.3% 42.3% 1.21× 1.95
Barracas Central (away no bet) 45.6% 48.7% 57.7% 0.84× 2.05
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors even goals 55.8% 56.9% 58.4% 0.98× 1.76
Argentinos Juniors odd goals 44.2% 43.1% 41.6% 1.03× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 94.4% 92.9% 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 5.6% 7.1% 14.03
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 56.4% 59.6% 1.68
Not both halves under 1.5 43.6% 40.4% 2.47
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 37.8% 36.3% 2.75
Argentinos Juniors to score 2+ in a row 24.5% 19.4% 5.16
Barracas Central to score 2+ in a row 15.5% 16.4% 6.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row 10.0% 11.9% 8.39
Argentinos Juniors to score 3+ in a row 6.8% 5.6% 17.99
Barracas Central to score 3+ in a row 3.2% 2.6% 38.11
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors corners (+3.5) 96.6% 94.0% 1.06
Argentinos Juniors corners (+2.5) 93.2% 88.7% 1.13
Argentinos Juniors corners (+1.5) 87.5% 84.2% 1.19
Barracas Central corners (+3.5) 70.8% 69.9% 1.43
Barracas Central corners (+2.5) 59.0% 56.8% 1.76
Argentinos Juniors corners (-1.5) 54.2% 52.3% 1.91
Barracas Central corners (+1.5) 45.8% 47.7% 2.10
Argentinos Juniors corners (-2.5) 41.0% 43.2% 2.32
Argentinos Juniors corners (-3.5) 29.2% 30.1% 3.32
Barracas Central corners (-1.5) 12.5% 15.8% 6.32
Barracas Central corners (-2.5) 6.8% 11.3% 8.82
Barracas Central corners (-3.5) 3.4% 6.0% 16.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 70.6% 58.9% 1.70
9-11 corners 20.6% 26.3% 3.81
12+ corners 8.8% 18.8% 5.31
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 94.5% 86.1% 1.16
Under 11.5 corners 91.2% 85.9% 1.16
Under 10.5 corners 86.3% 82.8% 1.21
Under 9.5 corners 79.5% 76.6% 1.31
Under 8.5 corners 70.6% 72.5% 1.38
Under 7.5 corners 59.6% 57.8% 1.73
Over 7.5 corners 40.4% 42.2% 2.37
Over 8.5 corners 29.4% 27.5% 3.64
Over 9.5 corners 20.5% 23.4% 4.28
Over 10.5 corners 13.7% 17.2% 5.80
Over 11.5 corners 8.8% 14.1% 7.11
Over 12.5 corners 5.5% 13.9% 7.22
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 15.8% 13.7% 10.3% 1.33× 7.28
0-0 15.4% 13.7% 14.8% 0.93× 7.28
1-1 13.6% 11.5% 13.4% 0.85× 8.73
1-0 12.0% 11.5% 14.2% 0.81× 8.73
0-2 8.7% 7.4% 4.5% 1.66× 13.46
1-2 7.1% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.46
2-0 5.1% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.46
2-1 5.4% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.46
0-3 3.1% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.57
0-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% 2.98× 58.59
1-3 2.5% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.58
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.3% 4.96× 58.59
2-2 2.9% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.58
2-3 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.14× 58.59
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 14.88× 58.59
3-0 1.4% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.58
3-1 1.5% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.58
3-2 0.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.14× 58.59
3-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 4.96× 58.59
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 14.88× 58.59
4-0 0.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.49× 58.59
4-1 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.59
4-2 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 4.96× 58.59
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.44× 58.59
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.44× 58.59
Any other score 0.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors leading at HT (DNB) 55.9% 57.4% 1.74
Barracas Central leading at HT (DNB) 44.1% 42.6% 2.35
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors or draw (X2) 72.9% 72.1% 58.3% 1.24× 1.39
Barracas Central or Argentinos Juniors (12) 67.7% 69.6% 69.4% 1.00× 1.44
Barracas Central or draw (1X) 59.4% 57.0% 72.2% 0.79× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors or draw at HT 79.3% 80.1% 1.25
Barracas Central or draw at HT 73.8% 74.7% 1.34
Barracas Central or Argentinos Juniors at HT 46.9% 52.4% 1.91
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors or draw (1UP) 72.9% 80.0% 1.25
Barracas Central or draw (1UP) 59.4% 62.8% 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors or draw in 2nd half 77.7% 77.0% 1.30
Barracas Central or draw in 2nd half 66.2% 65.5% 1.53
Barracas Central or Argentinos Juniors in 2nd half 56.2% 58.7% 1.70
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 73.3% 71.5% 1.40
Neither half drawn 26.7% 28.5% 3.50
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (DNB) 60.0% 62.8% 39.9% 1.57× 1.59
Barracas Central (DNB) 40.0% 37.2% 60.1% 0.62× 2.69
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors to score first 48.0% 45.6% 2.19
Barracas Central to score first 36.6% 32.5% 3.08
No goal scored 15.4% 16.9% 5.92
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 62.8% 56.5% 59.5% 0.95× 1.77
Both teams to score 37.2% 43.5% 40.5% 1.07× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 56.9% 47.2% 52.9% 0.89× 2.12
Both score & over 2.5 23.6% 27.7% 27.2% 1.02× 3.61
Both score & under 2.5 13.6% 12.3% 13.4% 0.92× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 5.9% 8.4% 6.8% 1.23× 11.97
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 94.2% 89.1% 94.2% 0.95× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 5.8% 10.9% 5.8% 1.86× 9.20
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 82.1% 74.0% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 17.9% 26.0% 3.85
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 73.5% 68.6% 1.46
Both score 2nd half only 16.0% 15.6% 6.42
Both score 1st half only 8.6% 6.7% 14.85
Both score in both halves 1.8% 4.9% 20.59
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 89.6% 85.9% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 10.4% 14.1% 7.08
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 63.4% 59.0% 1.69
A goal in each half 36.6% 41.0% 2.44
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.4% 42.1% 47.4% 0.89× 2.37
0-1 goals 43.2% 42.1% 39.1% 1.08× 2.37
4-6 goals 12.1% 16.9% 13.3% 1.27× 5.91
7+ goals 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 3.93× 55.41
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors to score exactly 1 36.7% 36.0% 35.9% 1.00× 2.78
Argentinos Juniors to score exactly 0 34.2% 33.9% 42.4% 0.80× 2.95
Argentinos Juniors to score exactly 2 19.7% 19.6% 15.3% 1.28× 5.11
Argentinos Juniors to score 3+ 9.4% 8.5% 6.7% 1.28× 11.77
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barracas Central to score exactly 1 36.1% 35.6% 36.6% 0.97× 2.81
Barracas Central to score exactly 0 44.0% 35.1% 31.9% 1.10× 2.85
Barracas Central to score exactly 2 14.8% 14.4% 21.8% 0.66× 6.96
Barracas Central to score 3+ 5.0% 10.3% 10.0% 1.03× 9.73
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 53.1% 47.6% 2.10
Argentinos Juniors leading at HT 26.2% 25.3% 3.95
Barracas Central leading at HT 20.7% 19.9% 5.03
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors -1: 1 59.4% 56.7% 1.76
Argentinos Juniors -1: X 24.0% 23.6% 4.24
Argentinos Juniors -1: 2 16.6% 17.5% 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (0:1) 72.9% 71.0% 58.3% 1.22× 1.41
Draw (0:1) 18.2% 17.8% 24.3% 0.73× 5.62
Barracas Central (0:1) 8.8% 9.3% 17.5% 0.53× 10.80
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (0:2) 91.2% 90.8% 82.5% 1.10× 1.10
Draw (0:2) 6.7% 7.7% 12.6% 0.61× 12.98
Barracas Central (0:2) 2.1% 3.8% 5.0% 0.75× 26.57
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (0:3) 97.9% 96.6% 95.0% 1.02× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 1.7% 2.4% 3.4% 0.69× 42.07
Barracas Central (0:3) 0.4% 2.4% 1.7% 1.38× 42.12
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (0:4) 99.6% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 1.3% 0.95× 83.44
Barracas Central (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 2.09× 83.47
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barracas Central (1:0) 59.4% 58.2% 72.2% 0.81× 1.72
Draw (1:0) 24.0% 21.7% 18.7% 1.16× 4.60
Argentinos Juniors (1:0) 16.6% 17.0% 9.2% 1.86× 5.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barracas Central (2:0) 83.4% 84.5% 90.8% 0.93× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 11.5% 10.4% 6.3% 1.65× 9.62
Argentinos Juniors (2:0) 5.1% 6.4% 3.0% 2.16× 15.52
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 42.8% 46.3% 2.16
Halves equal 31.8% 30.0% 3.33
1st half highest scoring 25.3% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barracas Central to concede 65.8% 66.5% 57.6% 1.15× 1.51
Barracas Central clean sheet 34.2% 33.5% 42.4% 0.79× 2.98
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barracas Central clean sheet in 1st half 65.1% 68.0% 1.47
Barracas Central to concede in 1st half 34.9% 32.0% 3.13
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barracas Central under 6.5 corners 97.0% 93.3% 1.07
Barracas Central under 5.5 corners 93.4% 88.3% 1.13
Barracas Central under 4.5 corners 86.3% 85.2% 1.17
Barracas Central under 3.5 corners 73.9% 71.5% 1.40
Barracas Central under 2.5 corners 55.1% 57.4% 1.74
Barracas Central over 2.5 corners 44.9% 42.6% 2.35
Barracas Central over 3.5 corners 26.1% 28.5% 3.51
Barracas Central over 4.5 corners 13.7% 14.8% 6.75
Barracas Central over 5.5 corners 6.6% 11.7% 8.55
Barracas Central over 6.5 corners 3.0% 6.7% 14.89
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barracas Central under 3.5 goals 99.0% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Barracas Central under 2.5 goals 95.0% 92.3% 90.0% 1.02× 1.08
Barracas Central under 1.5 goals 80.2% 82.1% 68.3% 1.20× 1.22
Barracas Central over 0.5 goals 56.0% 58.8% 68.1% 0.86× 1.70
Barracas Central under 0.5 goals 44.0% 41.2% 31.9% 1.29× 2.43
Barracas Central over 1.5 goals 19.8% 17.9% 31.7% 0.56× 5.60
Barracas Central over 2.5 goals 5.0% 7.7% 10.0% 0.78× 12.91
Barracas Central over 3.5 goals 1.0% 3.6% 2.9% 1.27× 27.52
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barracas Central under 1.5 in 1st half 95.1% 96.5% 1.04
Barracas Central under 0.5 in 1st half 70.3% 79.0% 1.27
Barracas Central over 0.5 in 1st half 29.7% 21.0% 4.77
Barracas Central over 1.5 in 1st half 4.9% 3.5% 28.93
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors (home no bet) 55.7% 56.7% 47.5% 1.19× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 44.3% 43.3% 52.5% 0.83× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barracas Central even goals 59.7% 55.5% 55.7% 1.00× 1.80
Barracas Central odd goals 40.3% 44.5% 44.3% 1.01× 2.25
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 45.8% 44.9% 2.23
HT 0-1 19.6% 18.9% 5.29
HT 1-0 16.1% 18.9% 5.31
HT 1-1 7.0% 7.1% 14.11
HT 0-2 4.2% 2.2% 44.61
HT 2-0 2.8% 2.2% 44.71
HT 1-2 1.5% 2.2% 44.82
Any other HT score 1.5% 2.2% 44.82
HT 2-1 1.2% 2.2% 44.84
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.2% 44.92
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 23.7% 22.2% 4.51
Argentinos Juniors at HT / Argentinos Juniors at FT 21.2% 22.1% 4.53
Draw at HT / Argentinos Juniors at FT 17.7% 16.8% 5.95
Barracas Central at HT / Barracas Central at FT 14.4% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Barracas Central at FT 11.7% 12.7% 7.90
Barracas Central at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.4% 29.10
Argentinos Juniors at HT / Draw at FT 4.0% 3.4% 29.12
Barracas Central at HT / Argentinos Juniors at FT 1.7% 3.4% 29.22
Argentinos Juniors at HT / Barracas Central at FT 1.0% 3.4% 29.24
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors to score last 48.0% 46.9% 2.13
Barracas Central to score last 36.6% 38.2% 2.62
No goal scored 15.4% 11.6% 8.61
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 84.6% 87.5% 1.14
Argentinos Juniors to lead by 1 at any time 52.4% 50.6% 1.98
Barracas Central to lead by 1 at any time 40.0% 34.8% 2.87
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 32.0% 29.4% 3.40
Argentinos Juniors to lead by 2 at any time 20.2% 19.6% 5.11
Barracas Central to lead by 2 at any time 11.8% 10.4% 9.58
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 8.7% 6.6% 15.26
Argentinos Juniors to lead by 3 at any time 6.0% 6.5% 15.40
Barracas Central to lead by 3 at any time 2.7% 1.6% 63.20
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors most corners 67.3% 64.5% 1.55
Barracas Central most corners 21.2% 27.0% 3.70
Corners level 11.5% 10.6% 9.39
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.3% 83.5% 84.3% 0.99× 1.20
1-4 goals 80.2% 83.5% 80.0% 1.04× 1.20
1-3 goals 72.1% 72.4% 71.7% 1.01× 1.38
2-6 goals 56.5% 59.2% 60.6% 0.98× 1.69
2-5 goals 55.5% 59.2% 60.0% 0.99× 1.69
1-2 goals 55.1% 59.2% 51.5% 1.15× 1.69
2-4 goals 52.5% 53.1% 55.7% 0.95× 1.88
2-3 goals 44.4% 43.6% 47.4% 0.92× 2.29
3-6 goals 29.1% 30.2% 33.5% 0.90× 3.31
3-5 goals 28.2% 30.2% 32.9% 0.92× 3.31
3-4 goals 25.1% 30.2% 28.7% 1.05× 3.31
4-6 goals 12.1% 14.8% 13.3% 1.12× 6.74
4-5 goals 11.1% 14.8% 12.7% 1.17× 6.74
5-6 goals 4.0% 2.5% 4.9% 0.51× 39.39
7+ goals 0.3% 2.5% 0.5% 5.51× 39.57
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Argentinos Juniors never behind 44.6% 48.4% 2.07
Barracas Central never behind 32.2% 35.4% 2.83
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.1% 50.8% 49.1% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.9% 49.2% 50.9% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 60.6% 57.4% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 39.4% 42.6% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 55.7% 59.3% 1.69
Odd goals in 2nd half 44.3% 40.7% 2.46
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.7% 95.5% 99.0% 0.97× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 95.6% 95.5% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Under 3.5 goals 87.6% 87.7% 86.4% 1.02× 1.14
Over 0.5 goals 84.6% 82.4% 85.2% 0.97× 1.21
Under 2.5 goals 70.5% 72.5% 66.2% 1.10× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 56.8% 58.8% 60.9% 0.97× 1.70
Under 1.5 goals 43.2% 41.2% 39.1% 1.05× 2.43
Over 2.5 goals 29.5% 27.5% 33.8% 0.81× 3.64
Under 0.5 goals 15.4% 17.6% 14.8% 1.19× 5.67
Over 3.5 goals 12.4% 12.3% 13.6% 0.90× 8.11
Over 4.5 goals 4.4% 4.5% 5.3% 0.85× 22.18
Over 5.5 goals 1.3% 4.5% 1.0% 4.36× 22.23
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.7% 97.3% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.7% 97.3% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 95.3% 97.2% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 85.0% 86.7% 82.9% 1.05× 1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 59.4% 55.6% 53.6% 1.04× 1.80
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 40.6% 44.4% 46.4% 0.96× 2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 15.0% 13.3% 17.1% 0.78× 7.53
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 4.7% 2.8% 5.8% 0.48× 36.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 1.3% 2.7% 1.1% 2.55× 36.41
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.3% 2.7% 0.5% 5.95× 36.44
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 95.5% 96.2% 1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half 81.5% 86.4% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 54.2% 56.7% 1.77
Under 0.5 in 1st half 45.8% 43.3% 2.31
Over 1.5 in 1st half 18.5% 13.6% 7.34
Over 2.5 in 1st half 4.5% 3.8% 26.17
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 89.8% 85.5% 1.17
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 69.3% 67.3% 1.49
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 67.0% 67.1% 1.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 33.0% 32.9% 3.04
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 30.7% 32.8% 3.05
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 10.2% 14.5% 6.91
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barracas Central not to score in both halves 88.9% 86.0% 1.16
Argentinos Juniors not to score in both halves 83.4% 84.3% 1.19
Argentinos Juniors to score in both halves 16.6% 15.7% 6.38
Barracas Central to score in both halves 11.1% 14.0% 7.15
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 37.2% 39.8% 40.5% 0.98× 2.51
Only Argentinos Juniors scores 28.6% 26.2% 17.2% 1.52× 3.82
Only Barracas Central scores 18.7% 16.1% 27.8% 0.58× 6.20
Neither team scores 15.4% 16.1% 14.8% 1.09× 6.21
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 27.7% 25.0% 24.4% 1.02× 4.01
Exactly 2 goals 27.4% 25.0% 27.2% 0.92× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 17.0% 17.5% 20.3% 0.86× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 15.4% 17.4% 14.8% 1.18× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 8.1% 7.6% 8.5% 0.90× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 3.1% 4.4% 4.4% 1.01× 22.63
6 or more goals 1.3% 4.4% 1.0% 4.28× 22.65
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 36.3% 39.8% 2.51
No goals in 2nd half 33.0% 33.8% 2.96
2+ goals in 2nd half 30.7% 33.8% 2.96
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barracas Central not to win both halves 95.3% 97.1% 1.03
Argentinos Juniors not to win both halves 91.1% 93.9% 1.07
Argentinos Juniors to win both halves 8.9% 6.1% 16.46
Barracas Central to win both halves 4.7% 2.9% 34.79
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barracas Central to win neither half 61.7% 65.3% 1.53
Argentinos Juniors to win either half 51.1% 54.7% 1.83
Argentinos Juniors to win neither half 48.9% 45.3% 2.21
Barracas Central to win either half 38.4% 34.7% 2.88
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barracas Central not to win to nil 81.3% 83.0% 72.2% 1.15× 1.21
Argentinos Juniors not to win to nil 71.4% 75.2% 82.8% 0.91× 1.33
Argentinos Juniors to win to nil 28.6% 24.8% 17.2% 1.44× 4.04
Barracas Central to win to nil 18.7% 17.0% 27.8% 0.61× 5.87
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 32.3% 27.6% 30.6% 0.90× 3.62
Argentinos Juniors by 1 24.0% 24.1% 18.7% 1.29× 4.14
Barracas Central by 1 18.2% 16.9% 24.3% 0.70× 5.90
Argentinos Juniors by 2 11.5% 11.8% 6.3% 1.87× 8.46
Barracas Central by 2 6.7% 7.2% 12.6% 0.57× 13.81
Argentinos Juniors by 3+ 5.1% 7.2% 3.0% 2.43× 13.81
Barracas Central by 3+ 2.1% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 37.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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