Bayer Leverkusen v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 26 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 11
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+0.96 – -0.64
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Bayer Leverkusen win
55.3%
Draw
25.7%
Augsburg win
19.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Bayer Leverkusen are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
DWWLWWLDLW last 10
scored 25
from 28.0 xG
conceded 17
from 18.3 xG
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.68–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Bayer Leverkusen 1.04 xGAugsburg 0.64 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Bayer Leverkusen attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 7' |
 Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Nathan Tella | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florian Wirtz |
| 11' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Florian Wirtz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 12' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Patrik Schick | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nathan Tella |
| 17' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Arthur | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 32' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emiliano Buendía |
| 45' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 47' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Robert Andrich |
| 47' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Granit Xhaka | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Álex Grimaldo |
| 48' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Florian Wirtz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Tah |
| 50' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuel Essende |
| 57' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Frank Onyeka |
| 61' |
Augsburg |
Kristijan Jakic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Henri Koudossou |
| 61' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robert Gumny |
| 62' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mert Kömür |
| 70' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kristijan Jakic |
| 74' |
Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Cédric Zesiger |
| 78' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Jonas Hofmann | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Adli |
| 80' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 87' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonas Hofmann |
| 88' |
Bayer Leverkusen |
Amine Adli | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jeremie Frimpong |
| 91' |
Augsburg |
Jeffrey Gouweleeuw | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fredrik Jensen |
Players
Bayer Leverkusen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Grimaldo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.44 |
| Granit Xhaka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.60 |
| Arthur DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Matej Kovár GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Robert Andrich MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.53 |
| Edmond Tapsoba DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Florian Wirtz AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.29 |
| Patrik Schick FW | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Emiliano Buendía ML | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| Nathan Tella MR | 67 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| Amine Adli Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 0.30 |
| Jonas Hofmann Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Piero Hincapié Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aleix García Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jeremie Frimpong Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristijan Jakic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.41 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Frank Onyeka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.36 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| Samuel Essende FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj AMC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Henri Koudossou Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.33 |
| Mert Kömür Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| Robert Gumny Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Phillip Tietz Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Fredrik Jensen Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |